MLB · 2026

14th by playoff odds30 clubs

Minnesota

2nd · 63-65

Playoffs30%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

34

Win the next 34 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number

The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.

34

Lose the next 34 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upFriday · Away9:40 PM EDTMinnesota30%PlayoffsSan Diego65%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 60%MIN 40%Win → 34% · Loss → 24%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Home19 AugAtlanta4Minnesota▲ +8621% → 29%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division13%

Bye8%

Pennant3%

World Series1%

2nd in the table · 14th by playoff odds.

AL Central finish

1st2nd3rd4th5th

1st · division winner

Most likely 2nd. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

American League finish

1st6th · playoff line15th

Most likely 7th. The top 6 in the league make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Friday · Away9:40 PM EDTMinnesota30%PlayoffsSan Diego65%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 60%MIN 40%Win → 34% · Loss → 24%Playoffs

Upcoming

Saturday · Away8:40 PM EDTSan Diego65%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 60%MIN 40%30% → 26% – 35%Playoffs Sunday · Away4:10 PM EDTSan Diego65%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 60%MIN 40%30% → 25% – 34%Playoffs Monday · Away9:40 PM EDTAthletics<1%PlayoffsMatch resultATH 45%MIN 55%30% → 24% – 33%Playoffs

Full schedule34 to play

Friday · Away9:40 PM EDTSan Diego65%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 60%MIN 40%30% → 24% – 34%Playoffs Saturday · Away8:40 PM EDTSan Diego65%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 60%MIN 40%30% → 26% – 35%Playoffs Sunday · Away4:10 PM EDTSan Diego65%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 60%MIN 40%30% → 25% – 34%Playoffs Monday · Away9:40 PM EDTAthletics<1%PlayoffsMatch resultATH 45%MIN 55%30% → 24% – 33%Playoffs Tuesday · Away9:40 PM EDTAthletics<1%PlayoffsMatch resultATH 45%MIN 55%30% → 24% – 33%Playoffs Wed 26 Aug · Away9:05 PM EDTAthletics<1%PlayoffsMatch resultATH 45%MIN 55%30% → 23% – 32%Playoffs Fri 28 Aug · Home8:10 PM EDTWhite Sox84%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 52%CWS 48%30% → 21% – 31%Playoffs Sat 29 Aug · Home2:10 PM EDTWhite Sox84%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 52%CWS 48%30% → 21% – 31%Playoffs Sun 30 Aug · Home2:10 PM EDTWhite Sox84%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 52%CWS 48%30% → 21% – 31%Playoffs Mon 31 Aug · Home7:40 PM EDTDetroit14%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 52%DET 48%30% → 21% – 32%Playoffs Tue 1 Sep · Home7:40 PM EDTDetroit14%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 52%DET 48%30% → 21% – 31%Playoffs Wed 2 Sep · Home7:40 PM EDTDetroit14%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 52%DET 48%30% → 21% – 31%Playoffs Fri 4 Sep · Away7:40 PM EDTWhite Sox84%PlayoffsMatch resultCWS 55%MIN 45%30% → 21% – 31%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Away7:10 PM EDTWhite Sox84%PlayoffsMatch resultCWS 55%MIN 45%30% → 21% – 31%Playoffs Sun 6 Sep · Away6:20 PM EDTWhite Sox84%PlayoffsMatch resultCWS 55%MIN 45%30% → 21% – 32%Playoffs Mon 7 Sep · Away3:10 PM EDTDetroit14%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 55%MIN 45%30% → 20% – 31%Playoffs Tue 8 Sep · Away6:40 PM EDTDetroit14%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 55%MIN 45%30% → 20% – 31%Playoffs Wed 9 Sep · Away1:10 PM EDTDetroit14%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 55%MIN 45%30% → 20% – 31%Playoffs Fri 11 Sep · Home8:10 PM EDTCleveland19%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 53%CLE 47%30% → 20% – 31%Playoffs Sat 12 Sep · Home4:10 PM EDTCleveland19%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 53%CLE 47%30% → 19% – 31%Playoffs Sun 13 Sep · Home2:10 PM EDTCleveland19%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 53%CLE 47%30% → 20% – 31%Playoffs Mon 14 Sep · Home7:40 PM EDTYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 45%NYY 55%30% → 21% – 31%Playoffs Tue 15 Sep · Home7:40 PM EDTYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 45%NYY 55%30% → 22% – 31%Playoffs Wed 16 Sep · Home1:40 PM EDTYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 45%NYY 55%30% → 22% – 31%Playoffs Thu 17 Sep · Away9:38 PM EDTAngels<1%PlayoffsMatch resultLAA 47%MIN 53%30% → 21% – 30%Playoffs Fri 18 Sep · Away9:38 PM EDTAngels<1%PlayoffsMatch resultLAA 47%MIN 53%30% → 21% – 31%Playoffs Sat 19 Sep · Away9:38 PM EDTAngels<1%PlayoffsMatch resultLAA 47%MIN 53%30% → 20% – 30%Playoffs Sun 20 Sep · Away4:07 PM EDTAngels<1%PlayoffsMatch resultLAA 47%MIN 53%30% → 19% – 28%Playoffs Mon 21 Sep · Away9:45 PM EDTSan Francisco<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSF 49%MIN 51%30% → 19% – 28%Playoffs Tue 22 Sep · Away9:45 PM EDTSan Francisco<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSF 49%MIN 51%30% → 17% – 26%Playoffs Wed 23 Sep · Away3:45 PM EDTSan Francisco<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSF 49%MIN 51%30% → 16% – 26%Playoffs Fri 25 Sep · Home8:10 PM EDTTexas34%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 53%TEX 47%30% → 16% – 25%Playoffs Sat 26 Sep · Home4:10 PM EDTTexas34%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 53%TEX 47%30% → 16% – 24%Playoffs Sun 27 Sep · Home3:10 PM EDTTexas34%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 53%TEX 47%30% → 16% – 23%Playoffs

History

Final · Home19 AugAtlanta4Minnesota▲ +8621% → 29%Playoffs Final · Home18 AugAtlanta1Minnesota▲ +5416% → 21%Playoffs Final · Home17 AugAtlanta2Minnesota±0412% → 12%Playoffs

All results128 played

Final · Home19 AugAtlanta4Minnesota▲ +8621% → 29%Playoffs Final · Home18 AugAtlanta1Minnesota▲ +5416% → 21%Playoffs Final · Home17 AugAtlanta2Minnesota±0412% → 12%Playoffs Final · Home16 AugPhiladelphia7Minnesota±0514% → 14%Playoffs Final · Home15 AugPhiladelphia9Minnesota±0121% → 21%Playoffs Final · Home13 AugPhiladelphia7Minnesota▼ -6126% → 20%Playoffs Final · Home12 AugBaltimore5Minnesota±0719% → 19%Playoffs Final · Home11 AugBaltimore5Minnesota▲ +1223% → 24%Playoffs Final · Home10 AugBaltimore5Minnesota▲ +1919% → 20%Playoffs Final · Away9 AugMilwaukee4Minnesota▼ -1324% → 23%Playoffs Final · Away8 AugMilwaukee4Minnesota±0328% → 28%Playoffs Final · Away7 AugMilwaukee6Minnesota±0820% → 20%Playoffs Final · Away6 AugKansas City3Minnesota±0415% → 15%Playoffs Final · Away5 AugKansas City2Minnesota±0116% → 16%Playoffs Final · Away4 AugKansas City8Minnesota▼ -2222% → 20%Playoffs Final · Away2 AugSeattle7Minnesota±0626% → 26%Playoffs Final · Away1 AugSeattle4Minnesota▼ -1332% → 31%Playoffs Final · Away31 JulSeattle3Minnesota▲ +1523% → 24%Playoffs Final · Home30 JulKansas City3Minnesota±0421% → 21%Playoffs Final · Home29 JulKansas City4Minnesota▼ -6029% → 23%Playoffs Final · Home28 JulKansas City2Minnesota▲ +1323% → 24%Playoffs Final · Home26 JulAthletics8Minnesota▲ +11119% → 20%Playoffs Final · Home25 JulAthletics0Minnesota▲ +4215% → 19%Playoffs Final · Home24 JulAthletics2Minnesota▼ -1019% → 18%Playoffs Final · Away23 JulCleveland1Minnesota▲ +4314% → 18%Playoffs Final · Away22 JulCleveland6Minnesota▲ +41010% → 14%Playoffs Final · Away21 JulCleveland5Minnesota▼ -4212% → 8%Playoffs Final · Away20 JulCleveland13Minnesota4 Final · Away19 JulCubs10Minnesota1 Final · Away18 JulCubs6Minnesota2 Final · Away17 JulCubs2Minnesota5 Final · Home12 JulAngels2Minnesota4 Final · Home11 JulAngels3Minnesota5 Final · Home10 JulAngels4Minnesota3 Final · Home9 JulCleveland5Minnesota2 Final · Home8 JulCleveland5Minnesota6 Final · Home7 JulCleveland1Minnesota3 Final · Away5 JulYankees1Minnesota6 Final · Away4 JulYankees4Minnesota11 Final · Away3 JulYankees5Minnesota2 Final · Away1 JulHouston3Minnesota8 Final · Away30 JunHouston6Minnesota4 Final · Away29 JunHouston4Minnesota5 Final · Home28 JunColorado2Minnesota3 Final · Home27 JunColorado8Minnesota5 Final · Home26 JunColorado8Minnesota9 Final · Home24 JunDodgers4Minnesota3 Final · Home23 JunDodgers12Minnesota3 Final · Home22 JunDodgers2Minnesota1 Final · Away21 JunArizona2Minnesota4 Final · Away20 JunArizona8Minnesota16 Final · Away19 JunArizona9Minnesota5 Final · Away18 JunTexas3Minnesota9 Final · Away16 JunTexas2Minnesota12 Final · Away15 JunTexas2Minnesota4 Final · Home14 JunSt. Louis4Minnesota5 Final · Home13 JunSt. Louis9Minnesota6 Final · Home12 JunSt. Louis8Minnesota9 Final · Away11 JunDetroit11Minnesota0 Final · Away10 JunDetroit4Minnesota6 Final · Away9 JunDetroit10Minnesota4 Final · Home7 JunKansas City6Minnesota5 Final · Home6 JunKansas City3Minnesota2 Final · Home5 JunKansas City3Minnesota5 Final · Home4 JunKansas City8Minnesota6 Final · Home3 JunWhite Sox8Minnesota0 Final · Home2 JunWhite Sox4Minnesota6 Final · Home1 JunWhite Sox6Minnesota9 Final · Away31 MayPittsburgh9Minnesota3 Final · Away30 MayPittsburgh10Minnesota9 Final · Away29 MayPittsburgh6Minnesota5 Final · Away28 MayWhite Sox6Minnesota2 Final · Away27 MayWhite Sox15Minnesota2 Final · Away26 MayWhite Sox3Minnesota5 Final · Away25 MayWhite Sox3Minnesota1 Final · Away24 MayBoston5Minnesota6 Final · Away23 MayBoston2Minnesota4 Final · Away22 MayBoston6Minnesota8 Final · Home20 MayHouston1Minnesota4 Final · Home19 MayHouston2Minnesota1 Final · Home18 MayHouston3Minnesota6 Final · Home17 MayMilwaukee4Minnesota5 Final · Home16 MayMilwaukee2Minnesota1 Final · Home15 MayMilwaukee3Minnesota2 Final · Home14 MayMiami1Minnesota9 Final · Home13 MayMiami9Minnesota5 Final · Home12 MayMiami0Minnesota3 Final · Away10 MayCleveland4Minnesota5 Final · Away9 MayCleveland1Minnesota2 Final · Away8 MayCleveland6Minnesota4 Final · Away7 MayWashington7Minnesota5 Final · Away6 MayWashington15Minnesota2 Final · Away5 MayWashington3Minnesota11 Final · Home3 MayToronto3Minnesota4 Final · Home2 MayToronto11Minnesota4 Final · Home1 MayToronto7Minnesota3 Final · Home30 AprToronto1Minnesota7 Final · Home29 AprSeattle5Minnesota3 Final · Home28 AprSeattle7Minnesota1 Final · Home27 AprSeattle4Minnesota11 Final · Away26 AprTampa Bay4Minnesota2 Final · Away25 AprTampa Bay6Minnesota1 Final · Away24 AprTampa Bay6Minnesota2 Final · Away23 AprMets10Minnesota8 Final · Away22 AprMets3Minnesota2 Final · Away21 AprMets3Minnesota5 Final · Home19 AprCincinnati7Minnesota4 Final · Home18 AprCincinnati5Minnesota4 Final · Home17 AprCincinnati2Minnesota1 Final · Home15 AprBoston9Minnesota5 Final · Home14 AprBoston0Minnesota6 Final · Home13 AprBoston6Minnesota13 Final · Away12 AprToronto2Minnesota8 Final · Away11 AprToronto4Minnesota7 Final · Away10 AprToronto10Minnesota4 Final · Home9 AprDetroit1Minnesota3 Final · Home8 AprDetroit6Minnesota8 Final · Home7 AprDetroit2Minnesota4 Final · Home6 AprDetroit3Minnesota7 Final · Home5 AprTampa Bay4Minnesota1 Final · Home4 AprTampa Bay7Minnesota1 Final · Home3 AprTampa Bay4Minnesota10 Final · Away2 AprKansas City1Minnesota5 Final · Away1 AprKansas City13Minnesota9 Final · Away30 MarKansas City3Minnesota1 Final · Away29 MarBaltimore8Minnesota6 Final · Away28 MarBaltimore1Minnesota4 Final · Away26 MarBaltimore2Minnesota1

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye8%

Minnesota 82+ wins

Division Series

2MinnesotaHomeWild Card Series winner3 Houston or 6 Cleveland

Alongside it: 1 Tampa Bay v Wild Card Series winner

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,690. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Tampa Bay	93	69
2	Minnesota	85	77
3	Houston	85	77
4	Yankees	90	72
5	Boston	88	74
6	Cleveland	84	78
-	Toronto	82	80
-	White Sox	82	80

Win the division, host the Wild Card Series5%

Minnesota 81+ wins

Wild Card Series

3MinnesotaHome6Baltimore

Alongside it: 4 Yankees v 5 Boston

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 979. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Tampa Bay	94	68
2	Houston	85	77
3	Minnesota	83	79
4	Yankees	90	72
5	Boston	88	74
6	Baltimore	81	81
-	White Sox	81	81
-	Detroit	79	83

Wild Card berth, host the Wild Card Series<1%

A possible long-shot route: 6 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Minnesota 85+ wins

Wild Card berth, on the road16%

Minnesota 81+ wins

Wild Card Series

3White SoxHome6Minnesota

Alongside it: 4 Yankees v 5 Boston

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,288. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Tampa Bay	98	64
2	Houston	84	78
3	White Sox	84	78
4	Yankees	94	68
5	Boston	89	73
6	Minnesota	82	80
-	Seattle	79	83
-	Toronto	79	83
-	Cleveland	78	84

Miss the postseason70%

Minnesota under 83 wins

49% of this route
- below TorontoToronto under 85 wins (91%)
- below ClevelandCleveland under 85 wins (94%)
26% of this route
- above TorontoToronto 1+ game back (>99%)
25% of this route
- below TorontoToronto under 86 wins (92%)
- above ClevelandCleveland 1+ game back (>99%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 6,872. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Tampa Bay	94	68
2	Seattle	86	76
3	White Sox	84	78
4	Boston	91	71
5	Yankees	90	72
6	Houston	83	79
-	Texas	82	80
-	Cleveland	81	81
-	Toronto	81	81
-	Minnesota	77	85