Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
updated 6 days ago · as of 13 Aug 2026 0 played · 272 to play

NFL

2026

The Super Bowl race
The chance of winning the Super Bowl, over the same simulated seasons the rest of the page is drawn from. One club wins it, so every club's number is its own slice of one trophy and they add to 100%.

Who ends the season with it, before the full table below.

AFC53%NFC47%
AFCDenverYou follow this club.14%HoustonYou follow this club.11%JacksonvilleYou follow this club.8%New EnglandYou follow this club.7%BuffaloYou follow this club.5%ChargersYou follow this club.3%PittsburghYou follow this club.2%BaltimoreYou follow this club.1%
NFCSeattleYou follow this club.20%49ersYou follow this club.5%RamsYou follow this club.5%PhiladelphiaYou follow this club.5%MinnesotaYou follow this club.3%ChicagoYou follow this club.3%DetroitYou follow this club.2%Green BayYou follow this club.2%AtlantaYou follow this club.1%

The other 15 clubs share 2% of the Super Bowl between them.

Realistic chance17 of 32 clubs

Every club with at least 1% of the Super Bowl.

Next gameWed 9 Sep 8:20 PM EDT

Seattle v New England

The race

Chances by division, conference, or all clubs. Each division winner advances. The rest chase 3 league-wide wild cards.

Division

Every division carries 4 clubs.

AFC East

PlayoffsPW-L-TPCTGBDivisionByeConfe­renceSuper Bowl
0-0-0New EnglandPlayoffs67%00-0-0.000-
Division44%
Bye11%
Conference14%
Super Bowl7%
0-0-0BuffaloPlayoffs63%00-0-0.000-
Division39%
Bye10%
Conference10%
Super Bowl5%
0-0-0MiamiPlayoffs30%00-0-0.000-
Division13%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0JetsPlayoffs13%00-0-0.000-
Division5%
Bye<1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%

AFC North

PlayoffsPW-L-TPCTGBDivisionByeConfe­renceSuper Bowl
0-0-0PittsburghPlayoffs57%00-0-0.000-
Division39%
Bye8%
Conference5%
Super Bowl2%
0-0-0BaltimorePlayoffs48%00-0-0.000-
Division29%
Bye5%
Conference3%
Super Bowl1%
0-0-0CincinnatiPlayoffs32%00-0-0.000-
Division17%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0ClevelandPlayoffs30%00-0-0.000-
Division15%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%

AFC South

PlayoffsPW-L-TPCTGBDivisionByeConfe­renceSuper Bowl
0-0-0HoustonPlayoffs76%00-0-0.000-
Division47%
Bye17%
Conference19%
Super Bowl11%
0-0-0JacksonvillePlayoffs70%00-0-0.000-
Division39%
Bye14%
Conference14%
Super Bowl8%
0-0-0IndianapolisPlayoffs33%00-0-0.000-
Division11%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0TennesseePlayoffs14%00-0-0.000-
Division4%
Bye1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%

AFC West

PlayoffsPW-L-TPCTGBDivisionByeConfe­renceSuper Bowl
0-0-0DenverPlayoffs79%00-0-0.000-
Division58%
Bye19%
Conference24%
Super Bowl14%
0-0-0ChargersPlayoffs57%00-0-0.000-
Division30%
Bye7%
Conference7%
Super Bowl3%
0-0-0Kansas CityPlayoffs24%00-0-0.000-
Division9%
Bye1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0Las VegasPlayoffs10%00-0-0.000-
Division3%
Bye<1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%

NFC East

PlayoffsPW-L-TPCTGBDivisionByeConfe­renceSuper Bowl
0-0-0PhiladelphiaPlayoffs65%00-0-0.000-
Division53%
Bye10%
Conference11%
Super Bowl5%
0-0-0DallasPlayoffs34%00-0-0.000-
Division21%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0WashingtonPlayoffs25%00-0-0.000-
Division15%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0GiantsPlayoffs18%00-0-0.000-
Division10%
Bye1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%

NFC North

PlayoffsPW-L-TPCTGBDivisionByeConfe­renceSuper Bowl
0-0-0DetroitPlayoffs54%00-0-0.000-
Division28%
Bye7%
Conference6%
Super Bowl2%
0-0-0MinnesotaPlayoffs54%00-0-0.000-
Division28%
Bye8%
Conference7%
Super Bowl3%
0-0-0ChicagoPlayoffs48%00-0-0.000-
Division24%
Bye6%
Conference6%
Super Bowl3%
0-0-0Green BayPlayoffs43%00-0-0.000-
Division20%
Bye5%
Conference4%
Super Bowl2%

NFC South

PlayoffsPW-L-TPCTGBDivisionByeConfe­renceSuper Bowl
0-0-0AtlantaPlayoffs48%00-0-0.000-
Division34%
Bye5%
Conference3%
Super Bowl1%
0-0-0New OrleansPlayoffs36%00-0-0.000-
Division24%
Bye3%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0Tampa BayPlayoffs34%00-0-0.000-
Division22%
Bye3%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0CarolinaPlayoffs32%00-0-0.000-
Division21%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%

NFC West

PlayoffsPW-L-TPCTGBDivisionByeConfe­renceSuper Bowl
0-0-0SeattlePlayoffs80%00-0-0.000-
Division48%
Bye24%
Conference34%
Super Bowl20%
0-0-049ersPlayoffs61%00-0-0.000-
Division25%
Bye11%
Conference11%
Super Bowl5%
0-0-0RamsPlayoffs60%00-0-0.000-
Division25%
Bye10%
Conference11%
Super Bowl5%
0-0-0ArizonaPlayoffs8%00-0-0.000-
Division2%
Bye<1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%

Conference

Every conference carries 16 clubs.

AFC

PlayoffsPW-L-TPCTDivisionByeConfe­renceSuper Bowl
0-0-0DenverPlayoffs79%00-0-0.000
Division58%
Bye19%
Conference24%
Super Bowl14%
0-0-0HoustonPlayoffs76%00-0-0.000
Division47%
Bye17%
Conference19%
Super Bowl11%
0-0-0JacksonvillePlayoffs70%00-0-0.000
Division39%
Bye14%
Conference14%
Super Bowl8%
0-0-0New EnglandPlayoffs67%00-0-0.000
Division44%
Bye11%
Conference14%
Super Bowl7%
0-0-0BuffaloPlayoffs63%00-0-0.000
Division39%
Bye10%
Conference10%
Super Bowl5%
0-0-0ChargersPlayoffs57%00-0-0.000
Division30%
Bye7%
Conference7%
Super Bowl3%
0-0-0PittsburghPlayoffs57%00-0-0.000
Division39%
Bye8%
Conference5%
Super Bowl2%
0-0-0BaltimorePlayoffs48%00-0-0.000
Division29%
Bye5%
Conference3%
Super Bowl1%
0-0-0IndianapolisPlayoffs33%00-0-0.000
Division11%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0CincinnatiPlayoffs32%00-0-0.000
Division17%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0ClevelandPlayoffs30%00-0-0.000
Division15%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0MiamiPlayoffs30%00-0-0.000
Division13%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0Kansas CityPlayoffs24%00-0-0.000
Division9%
Bye1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0TennesseePlayoffs14%00-0-0.000
Division4%
Bye1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0JetsPlayoffs13%00-0-0.000
Division5%
Bye<1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0Las VegasPlayoffs10%00-0-0.000
Division3%
Bye<1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%

NFC

PlayoffsPW-L-TPCTDivisionByeConfe­renceSuper Bowl
0-0-0SeattlePlayoffs80%00-0-0.000
Division48%
Bye24%
Conference34%
Super Bowl20%
0-0-0PhiladelphiaPlayoffs65%00-0-0.000
Division53%
Bye10%
Conference11%
Super Bowl5%
0-0-049ersPlayoffs61%00-0-0.000
Division25%
Bye11%
Conference11%
Super Bowl5%
0-0-0RamsPlayoffs60%00-0-0.000
Division25%
Bye10%
Conference11%
Super Bowl5%
0-0-0DetroitPlayoffs54%00-0-0.000
Division28%
Bye7%
Conference6%
Super Bowl2%
0-0-0MinnesotaPlayoffs54%00-0-0.000
Division28%
Bye8%
Conference7%
Super Bowl3%
0-0-0ChicagoPlayoffs48%00-0-0.000
Division24%
Bye6%
Conference6%
Super Bowl3%
0-0-0AtlantaPlayoffs48%00-0-0.000
Division34%
Bye5%
Conference3%
Super Bowl1%
0-0-0Green BayPlayoffs43%00-0-0.000
Division20%
Bye5%
Conference4%
Super Bowl2%
0-0-0New OrleansPlayoffs36%00-0-0.000
Division24%
Bye3%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0DallasPlayoffs34%00-0-0.000
Division21%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0Tampa BayPlayoffs34%00-0-0.000
Division22%
Bye3%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0CarolinaPlayoffs32%00-0-0.000
Division21%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0WashingtonPlayoffs25%00-0-0.000
Division15%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0GiantsPlayoffs18%00-0-0.000
Division10%
Bye1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0ArizonaPlayoffs8%00-0-0.000
Division2%
Bye<1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%

All clubs

PlayoffsPW-L-TPCTGBDivisionByeConfe­renceSuper Bowl
0-0-0SeattlePlayoffs80%00-0-0.000-
Division48%
Bye24%
Conference34%
Super Bowl20%
0-0-0DenverPlayoffs79%00-0-0.000-
Division58%
Bye19%
Conference24%
Super Bowl14%
0-0-0HoustonPlayoffs76%00-0-0.000-
Division47%
Bye17%
Conference19%
Super Bowl11%
0-0-0JacksonvillePlayoffs70%00-0-0.000-
Division39%
Bye14%
Conference14%
Super Bowl8%
0-0-0New EnglandPlayoffs67%00-0-0.000-
Division44%
Bye11%
Conference14%
Super Bowl7%
0-0-0PhiladelphiaPlayoffs65%00-0-0.000-
Division53%
Bye10%
Conference11%
Super Bowl5%
0-0-0BuffaloPlayoffs63%00-0-0.000-
Division39%
Bye10%
Conference10%
Super Bowl5%
0-0-049ersPlayoffs61%00-0-0.000-
Division25%
Bye11%
Conference11%
Super Bowl5%
0-0-0RamsPlayoffs60%00-0-0.000-
Division25%
Bye10%
Conference11%
Super Bowl5%
0-0-0ChargersPlayoffs57%00-0-0.000-
Division30%
Bye7%
Conference7%
Super Bowl3%
0-0-0PittsburghPlayoffs57%00-0-0.000-
Division39%
Bye8%
Conference5%
Super Bowl2%
0-0-0DetroitPlayoffs54%00-0-0.000-
Division28%
Bye7%
Conference6%
Super Bowl2%
0-0-0MinnesotaPlayoffs54%00-0-0.000-
Division28%
Bye8%
Conference7%
Super Bowl3%
0-0-0ChicagoPlayoffs48%00-0-0.000-
Division24%
Bye6%
Conference6%
Super Bowl3%
0-0-0BaltimorePlayoffs48%00-0-0.000-
Division29%
Bye5%
Conference3%
Super Bowl1%
0-0-0AtlantaPlayoffs48%00-0-0.000-
Division34%
Bye5%
Conference3%
Super Bowl1%
0-0-0Green BayPlayoffs43%00-0-0.000-
Division20%
Bye5%
Conference4%
Super Bowl2%
0-0-0New OrleansPlayoffs36%00-0-0.000-
Division24%
Bye3%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0DallasPlayoffs34%00-0-0.000-
Division21%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0Tampa BayPlayoffs34%00-0-0.000-
Division22%
Bye3%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0IndianapolisPlayoffs33%00-0-0.000-
Division11%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0CincinnatiPlayoffs32%00-0-0.000-
Division17%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0CarolinaPlayoffs32%00-0-0.000-
Division21%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0ClevelandPlayoffs30%00-0-0.000-
Division15%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0MiamiPlayoffs30%00-0-0.000-
Division13%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0WashingtonPlayoffs25%00-0-0.000-
Division15%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0Kansas CityPlayoffs24%00-0-0.000-
Division9%
Bye1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0GiantsPlayoffs18%00-0-0.000-
Division10%
Bye1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0TennesseePlayoffs14%00-0-0.000-
Division4%
Bye1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0JetsPlayoffs13%00-0-0.000-
Division5%
Bye<1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0Las VegasPlayoffs10%00-0-0.000-
Division3%
Bye<1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%
0-0-0ArizonaPlayoffs8%00-0-0.000-
Division2%
Bye<1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%

Games that matter

Nothing in the next 7 days - these are the next games, and what each result would do.

Wed 9 Sep8:20 PM EDTSeattle48% → 64% – 78%DivisionNew England44% → 55% – 69%DivisionMatch resultSEA 67%Tie <1%NE 33%Thu 10 Sep8:35 PM EDTRams60% → 66% – 82%Playoffs49ers61% → 75% – 90%PlayoffsMatch resultLAR 57%Tie <1%SF 43%Sun 13 Sep1:00 PM EDTPittsburgh57% → 63% – 80%PlayoffsAtlanta34% → 35% – 51%DivisionMatch resultPIT 65%Tie <1%ATL 35%Sun 13 Sep1:00 PM EDTIndianapolis33% → 15% – 29%PlayoffsBaltimore48% → 30% – 49%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 48%Tie <1%BAL 52%
More games that matter4 more
Sun 13 Sep1:00 PM EDTHouston47% → 42% – 57%DivisionBuffalo39% → 31% – 46%DivisionMatch resultHOU 63%Tie <1%BUF 37%Sun 13 Sep1:00 PM EDTCarolina32% → 9% – 21%PlayoffsChicago48% → 27% – 43%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 41%Tie <1%CHI 59%Sun 13 Sep1:00 PM EDTJacksonville39% → 35% – 49%DivisionCleveland30% → 11% – 24%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 84%Tie <1%CLE 16%Sun 13 Sep1:00 PM EDTDetroit54% → 46% – 67%PlayoffsNew Orleans36% → 20% – 42%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 73%Tie <1%NO 27%

How the race got here

The season behind today's table, told two ways.

The trajectory

Playoff odds at every published forecast. The six biggest movers are drawn; tap any club to add it.

0255075100Playoff odds %3 Aug5 Aug13 Aug3 Aug 20265 Aug 202613 Aug 2026

Turning points

No played game yet has a published forecast to compare against.