Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
24th by playoff odds32 clubs

Cleveland

24th by playoff odds · 0-0-0
Playoffs30%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
17

Win the next 17 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
17

Lose the next 17 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSun 13 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTCleveland30%PlayoffsJacksonville70%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 84%Tie <1%CLE 16%Win → 24% · Tie → 16% · Loss → 11%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division15%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%

24th by playoff odds.

AFC North finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 4th. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 13th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game and what follows it. Nothing has been played yet.

Next up

Sun 13 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTCleveland30%PlayoffsJacksonville70%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 84%Tie <1%CLE 16%Win → 24% · Tie → 16% · Loss → 11%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 20 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTTampa Bay34%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 64%Tie <1%CLE 36%30% → 10% – 22%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTCarolina32%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 49%Tie <1%CAR 51%30% → 10% – 20%PlayoffsThu 1 Oct · Home8:15 PM EDTPittsburgh57%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 34%Tie <1%PIT 65%30% → 12% – 26%Playoffs
Full schedule17 to play
Sun 13 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTJacksonville70%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 84%Tie <1%CLE 16%30% → 11% – 24%PlayoffsSun 20 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTTampa Bay34%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 64%Tie <1%CLE 36%30% → 10% – 22%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTCarolina32%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 49%Tie <1%CAR 51%30% → 10% – 20%PlayoffsThu 1 Oct · Home8:15 PM EDTPittsburgh57%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 34%Tie <1%PIT 65%30% → 12% – 26%PlayoffsSun 11 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTJets13%PlayoffsMatch resultNYJ 47%Tie <1%CLE 52%30% → 10% – 20%PlayoffsSun 18 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTBaltimore48%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 41%Tie <1%BAL 59%30% → 10% – 22%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTTennessee14%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 46%Tie <1%CLE 54%30% → 9% – 20%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTPittsburgh57%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 77%Tie <1%CLE 23%30% → 11% – 25%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTNew Orleans36%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 62%Tie <1%CLE 38%30% → 11% – 22%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTHouston76%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 23%Tie <1%HOU 77%30% → 13% – 25%PlayoffsSun 29 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTLas Vegas10%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 70%Tie <1%LV 30%30% → 9% – 19%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTCincinnati32%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 53%Tie <1%CIN 46%30% → 10% – 20%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTAtlanta48%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 42%Tie <1%ATL 57%30% → 10% – 20%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTGiants18%PlayoffsMatch resultNYG 52%Tie <1%CLE 48%30% → 9% – 19%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTBaltimore48%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 72%Tie <1%CLE 28%30% → 13% – 25%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTIndianapolis33%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 50%Tie <1%IND 50%30% → 10% – 22%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTCincinnati32%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 60%Tie <1%CLE 39%30% → 11% – 24%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-08-13

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye2%

Cleveland 13+ wins

Divisional Round
1ClevelandHomeWild Card Round winner4 Buffalo or 5 Houston

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 357. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Cleveland1520
2Indianapolis1430
3Denver1160
4Buffalo1070
5Houston1160
6Cincinnati1070
7Baltimore1070
-New England1070
-Kansas City980
Win the division, host a Wild Card game13%

Cleveland 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
3ClevelandHome6Houston

Alongside it: 2 Chargers v 7 Kansas City · 4 New England v 5 Tennessee

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,676. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Jacksonville1340
2Chargers1250
3Cleveland1250
4New England1160
5Tennessee1070
6Houston980
7Kansas City890
-Buffalo890
-Miami890
-Pittsburgh890
-Baltimore7100
Wild Card berth, on the road15%

Cleveland 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
4JacksonvilleHome5Cleveland

Alongside it: 2 Pittsburgh v 7 Houston · 3 Buffalo v 6 Denver

  1. 68% of this route

    • above IndianapolisIndianapolis out of the postseason (93%) · Indianapolis 1+ game back (94%)
    • above MiamiMiami out of the postseason (92%) · Miami 1+ game back (96%)

  2. 16% of this route

  3. 16% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,988. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Chargers1520
2Pittsburgh1340
3Buffalo1160
4Jacksonville1070
5Cleveland1160
6Denver1070
7Houston980
-Baltimore890
-Cincinnati890
-Indianapolis6110
-Miami6110
Miss the postseason70%

Cleveland under 9.5 wins

  1. 62% of this route

  2. 21% of this route

  3. 17% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 8,705. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Pittsburgh1520
2Chargers1430
3Jacksonville1160
4New England980
5Las Vegas1061
6Houston1070
7Kansas City1070
-Baltimore1070
-Buffalo980
-Indianapolis980
-Cleveland4121