Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
15th by playoff odds32 clubs

Baltimore

15th by playoff odds · 0-0-0
Playoffs48%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
17

Win the next 17 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
17

Lose the next 17 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSun 13 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTBaltimore48%PlayoffsIndianapolis33%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 48%Tie <1%BAL 52%Win → 49% · Tie → 47% · Loss → 30%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division29%
Bye5%
Conference3%
Super Bowl1%

15th by playoff odds.

AFC North finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 1st. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 4th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game and what follows it. Nothing has been played yet.

Next up

Sun 13 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTBaltimore48%PlayoffsIndianapolis33%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 48%Tie <1%BAL 52%Win → 49% · Tie → 47% · Loss → 30%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 20 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTNew Orleans36%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 68%Tie <1%NO 32%48% → 27% – 44%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Away4:25 PM EDTDallas34%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 49%Tie <1%BAL 51%48% → 30% – 48%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTTennessee14%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 80%Tie <1%TEN 20%48% → 28% – 44%Playoffs
Full schedule17 to play
Sun 13 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTIndianapolis33%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 48%Tie <1%BAL 52%48% → 30% – 49%PlayoffsSun 20 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTNew Orleans36%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 68%Tie <1%NO 32%48% → 27% – 44%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Away4:25 PM EDTDallas34%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 49%Tie <1%BAL 51%48% → 30% – 48%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTTennessee14%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 80%Tie <1%TEN 20%48% → 28% – 44%PlayoffsSun 11 Oct · Away8:20 PM EDTAtlanta48%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 56%Tie <1%BAL 44%48% → 32% – 48%PlayoffsSun 18 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTCleveland30%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 41%Tie <1%BAL 59%48% → 29% – 47%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTCincinnati32%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 69%Tie <1%CIN 31%48% → 26% – 45%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTBuffalo63%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 71%Tie <1%BAL 29%48% → 34% – 54%PlayoffsThu 5 Nov · Home8:15 PM ESTJacksonville70%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 39%Tie <1%JAX 61%48% → 32% – 51%PlayoffsMon 16 Nov · Home8:15 PM ESTChargers57%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%Tie <1%LAC 53%48% → 31% – 51%PlayoffsSun 22 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTCarolina32%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 49%Tie <1%BAL 51%48% → 31% – 48%PlayoffsSun 29 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTHouston76%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 75%Tie <1%BAL 24%48% → 36% – 54%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTTampa Bay34%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 66%Tie <1%TB 34%48% → 31% – 47%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTPittsburgh57%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 64%Tie <1%BAL 36%29% → 16% – 40%DivisionSun 27 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTCleveland30%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 72%Tie <1%CLE 28%48% → 28% – 47%PlayoffsThu 31 Dec · Away8:15 PM ESTCincinnati32%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 44%Tie <1%BAL 55%48% → 30% – 49%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTPittsburgh57%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 50%Tie <1%PIT 50%48% → 31% – 54%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-08-13

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye5%

Baltimore 13.5+ wins

Divisional Round
1BaltimoreHomeWild Card Round winner4 New England or 5 Indianapolis

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 952. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Baltimore1520
2Jacksonville1520
3Denver1160
4New England890
5Indianapolis1070
6Houston1070
7Pittsburgh890
-Buffalo7100
-Cleveland7100
Win the division, host a Wild Card game25%

Baltimore 9.5+ wins

Wild Card Round
3BaltimoreHome6Indianapolis

Alongside it: 2 Denver v 7 Cleveland · 4 New England v 5 Chargers

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,945. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Houston1700
2Denver1601
3Baltimore1250
4New England1070
5Chargers1070
6Indianapolis1070
7Cleveland980
-Buffalo980
-Miami980
-Pittsburgh890
-Cincinnati6101
Wild Card berth, on the road18%

Baltimore 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
4Kansas CityHome5Baltimore

Alongside it: 2 New England v 7 Denver · 3 Pittsburgh v 6 Jets

  1. 81% of this route

    • above IndianapolisIndianapolis out of the postseason (92%) · Indianapolis 1+ game back (95%)

  2. 19% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,999. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Jacksonville1700
2New England1520
3Pittsburgh1430
4Kansas City1250
5Baltimore1160
6Jets971
7Denver890
-Buffalo890
-Chargers890
-Indianapolis6110
-Tennessee5111
Miss the postseason52%

Baltimore under 9.5 wins

  1. 75% of this route

  2. 13% of this route

  3. 12% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 7,765. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Jacksonville1520
2New England1250
3Pittsburgh1160
4Chargers1061
5Buffalo1250
6Indianapolis1160
7Cleveland1070
-Tennessee1070
-Miami1070
-Baltimore6110