Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
9th by playoff odds32 clubs

Baltimore

2nd · 3-0-1
Playoffs61%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
12

Win the next 12 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Next upSunday · Away8:20 PM EDTBaltimore61%PlayoffsAtlanta51%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 54%Tie <1%BAL 46%Win → 79% · Tie → 65% · Loss → 59%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Home4 OctTennessee18Baltimore±02452% → 52%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division32%
Bye10%
Conference8%
Super Bowl4%

2nd in the table · 9th by playoff odds.

AFC North finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 1st. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 1st. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Sunday · Away8:20 PM EDTBaltimore61%PlayoffsAtlanta51%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 54%Tie <1%BAL 46%Win → 79% · Tie → 65% · Loss → 59%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 18 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTCleveland63%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 55%Tie <1%BAL 44%32% → 27% – 53%DivisionSun 25 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTCincinnati38%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 64%Tie <1%CIN 35%61% → 55% – 76%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTBuffalo70%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 63%Tie <1%BAL 37%61% → 65% – 82%Playoffs
Full schedule13 to play
Sunday · Away8:20 PM EDTAtlanta51%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 54%Tie <1%BAL 46%61% → 59% – 79%PlayoffsSun 18 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTCleveland63%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 55%Tie <1%BAL 44%32% → 27% – 53%DivisionSun 25 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTCincinnati38%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 64%Tie <1%CIN 35%61% → 55% – 76%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTBuffalo70%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 63%Tie <1%BAL 37%61% → 65% – 82%PlayoffsThu 5 Nov · Home8:15 PM ESTJacksonville81%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 48%Tie <1%JAX 51%61% → 63% – 81%PlayoffsMon 16 Nov · Home8:15 PM ESTChargers11%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 69%Tie <1%LAC 30%61% → 58% – 77%PlayoffsSun 22 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTCarolina47%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 51%Tie <1%BAL 49%61% → 62% – 79%PlayoffsSun 29 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTHouston12%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 44%Tie <1%BAL 55%61% → 58% – 77%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTTampa Bay9%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 75%Tie <1%TB 24%61% → 53% – 72%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTPittsburgh46%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 55%Tie <1%BAL 45%32% → 28% – 50%DivisionSun 27 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTCleveland63%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 59%Tie <1%CLE 41%32% → 20% – 45%DivisionThu 31 Dec · Away8:15 PM ESTCincinnati38%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 49%Tie <1%BAL 51%61% → 52% – 76%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTPittsburgh46%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 59%Tie <1%PIT 41%61% → 53% – 76%Playoffs

History

Final · Home4 OctTennessee18Baltimore±02452% → 52%PlayoffsFinal · Away27 SepDallas31Baltimore±03444% → 44%PlayoffsFinal · Home20 SepNew Orleans24Baltimore▼ -121757% → 45%Playoffs
All results4 played
Final · Home4 OctTennessee18Baltimore±02452% → 52%PlayoffsFinal · Away27 SepDallas31Baltimore±03444% → 44%PlayoffsFinal · Home20 SepNew Orleans24Baltimore▼ -121757% → 45%PlayoffsFinal · Away13 SepIndianapolis23Baltimore▲ +124146% → 58%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-10-06

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye10%

Baltimore 13+ wins

Divisional Round
1BaltimoreHomeWild Card Round winner4 Jacksonville or 5 Cleveland

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,075. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Baltimore1430
2Buffalo1340
3Kansas City1160
4Jacksonville1070
5Cleveland1250
6Jets1070
7Las Vegas1070
-Cincinnati980
-New England980
Win the division, host a Wild Card game22%

Baltimore 10+ wins

Wild Card Round
2BaltimoreHome7Miami

Alongside it: 3 Kansas City v 6 Cleveland · 4 Buffalo v 5 Indianapolis

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,334. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Jacksonville1430
2Baltimore1250
3Kansas City1250
4Buffalo1160
5Indianapolis980
6Cleveland980
7Miami890
-Las Vegas890
-Pittsburgh890
Wild Card berth, on the road29%

Baltimore 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
3ClevelandHome6Baltimore

Alongside it: 2 Kansas City v 7 Las Vegas · 4 New England v 5 Denver

  1. 55% of this route

  2. 27% of this route

  3. 18% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,172. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Jacksonville1331
2Kansas City1250
3Cleveland1061
4New England890
5Denver1160
6Baltimore1061
7Las Vegas890
-Buffalo7100
-Cincinnati7100
Miss the postseason39%

Baltimore under 10.5 wins

  1. 62% of this route

  2. 20% of this route

  3. 18% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,845. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Cleveland1340
2Kansas City1250
3New England980
4Indianapolis980
5Denver1250
6Pittsburgh1070
7Cincinnati1070
-Buffalo980
-Jacksonville890
-Baltimore7100