Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
2nd by playoff odds32 clubs

Denver

2nd by playoff odds · 0-0-0
Playoffs79%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
17

Win the next 17 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
17

Lose the next 17 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upMon 14 Sep · Away8:15 PM EDTDenver79%PlayoffsKansas City24%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 22%Tie <1%DEN 78%Win → 81% · Tie → 79% · Loss → 64%Division

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division58%
Bye19%
Conference24%
Super Bowl14%

2nd by playoff odds.

AFC West finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 1st. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 1st. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game and what follows it. Nothing has been played yet.

Next up

Mon 14 Sep · Away8:15 PM EDTDenver79%PlayoffsKansas City24%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 22%Tie <1%DEN 78%Win → 81% · Tie → 79% · Loss → 64%Division

Upcoming

Sun 20 Sep · Home4:05 PM EDTJacksonville70%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 64%Tie <1%JAX 36%58% → 68% – 82%DivisionSun 27 Sep · Home8:20 PM EDTRams60%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 68%Tie <1%LAR 32%58% → 67% – 80%DivisionSun 4 Oct · Away4:25 PM EDT49ers61%PlayoffsMatch resultSF 45%Tie <1%DEN 54%58% → 69% – 80%Division
Full schedule17 to play
Mon 14 Sep · Away8:15 PM EDTKansas City24%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 22%Tie <1%DEN 78%58% → 64% – 81%DivisionSun 20 Sep · Home4:05 PM EDTJacksonville70%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 64%Tie <1%JAX 36%58% → 68% – 82%DivisionSun 27 Sep · Home8:20 PM EDTRams60%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 68%Tie <1%LAR 32%58% → 67% – 80%DivisionSun 4 Oct · Away4:25 PM EDT49ers61%PlayoffsMatch resultSF 45%Tie <1%DEN 54%58% → 69% – 80%DivisionSun 11 Oct · Away4:05 PM EDTChargers57%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 42%Tie <1%DEN 57%58% → 66% – 87%DivisionThu 15 Oct · Home8:15 PM EDTSeattle80%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 54%Tie <1%SEA 46%58% → 73% – 84%DivisionSun 25 Oct · Away4:05 PM EDTArizona8%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 13%Tie <1%DEN 86%58% → 70% – 82%DivisionSun 1 Nov · Home4:25 PM ESTKansas City24%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 86%Tie <1%KC 14%58% → 68% – 82%DivisionSun 8 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTCarolina32%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 26%Tie <1%DEN 74%58% → 71% – 83%DivisionSun 22 Nov · Home4:25 PM ESTLas Vegas10%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 92%Tie <1%LV 8%58% → 71% – 83%DivisionFri 27 Nov · Away3:00 PM ESTPittsburgh57%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 39%Tie <1%DEN 60%58% → 76% – 87%DivisionSun 6 Dec · Home4:05 PM ESTMiami30%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 83%Tie <1%MIA 16%58% → 72% – 83%DivisionSun 13 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTJets13%PlayoffsMatch resultNYJ 15%Tie <1%DEN 85%58% → 72% – 83%DivisionSun 20 Dec · Away4:25 PM ESTLas Vegas10%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 13%Tie <1%DEN 87%58% → 72% – 84%DivisionFri 25 Dec · Home4:30 PM ESTBuffalo63%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 66%Tie <1%BUF 33%58% → 74% – 85%DivisionSun 3 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTNew England67%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 50%Tie <1%DEN 49%58% → 74% – 86%DivisionSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTChargers57%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 70%Tie <1%LAC 29%58% → 60% – 86%Division

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-08-13

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye19%

Denver 14+ wins

Divisional Round
1DenverHomeWild Card Round winner4 Miami or 5 Houston

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,712. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Denver1520
2Cincinnati1250
3Indianapolis1151
4Miami890
5Houston1160
6Jacksonville1061
7Pittsburgh1070
-Chargers1070
-Buffalo7100
Win the division, host a Wild Card game40%
Wild Card berth, on the road20%

Denver 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
2ClevelandHome7Denver

Alongside it: 3 Chargers v 6 Kansas City · 4 Jacksonville v 5 Houston

  1. 42% of this route

  2. 36% of this route

  3. 22% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,736. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1New England1430
2Cleveland1340
3Chargers1340
4Jacksonville1340
5Houston1340
6Kansas City1160
7Denver1160
-Indianapolis1160
-Buffalo1070
Miss the postseason21%