Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
7th by playoff odds32 clubs

New England

2nd · 2-0-2
Playoffs64%
Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
13

Lose the next 13 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSunday · Home1:00 PM EDTNew England64%PlayoffsLas Vegas46%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 69%Tie <1%LV 31%Win → 76% · Tie → 69% · Loss → 52%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Away4 OctBuffalo26New England±02944% → 44%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division42%
Bye8%
Conference11%
Super Bowl6%

2nd in the table · 7th by playoff odds.

AFC East finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 1st. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 4th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Sunday · Home1:00 PM EDTNew England64%PlayoffsLas Vegas46%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 69%Tie <1%LV 31%Win → 76% · Tie → 69% · Loss → 52%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 18 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTJets16%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 77%Tie <1%NYJ 22%64% → 48% – 72%PlayoffsThu 22 Oct · Away8:15 PM EDTChicago59%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 56%Tie <1%NE 44%64% → 58% – 77%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away4:25 PM ESTMiami9%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 34%Tie <1%NE 65%64% → 54% – 75%Playoffs
Full schedule13 to play
Sunday · Home1:00 PM EDTLas Vegas46%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 69%Tie <1%LV 31%64% → 52% – 76%PlayoffsSun 18 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTJets16%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 77%Tie <1%NYJ 22%64% → 48% – 72%PlayoffsThu 22 Oct · Away8:15 PM EDTChicago59%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 56%Tie <1%NE 44%64% → 58% – 77%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away4:25 PM ESTMiami9%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 34%Tie <1%NE 65%64% → 54% – 75%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Home4:25 PM ESTGreen Bay38%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 65%Tie <1%GB 35%64% → 54% – 75%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Away9:30 AM ESTDetroit39%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 41%Tie <1%NE 58%64% → 56% – 75%PlayoffsSun 29 Nov · Away8:20 PM ESTChargers11%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 39%Tie <1%NE 61%64% → 53% – 73%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Home4:25 PM ESTBuffalo70%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 56%Tie <1%BUF 43%42% → 18% – 47%DivisionThu 10 Dec · Home8:15 PM ESTMinnesota83%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 52%Tie <1%MIN 48%64% → 54% – 73%PlayoffsMon 21 Dec · Away8:15 PM ESTKansas City80%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 56%Tie <1%NE 43%64% → 54% – 74%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTJets16%PlayoffsMatch resultNYJ 34%Tie <1%NE 66%64% → 49% – 71%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTDenver58%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 57%Tie <1%DEN 42%64% → 48% – 73%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTMiami9%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 77%Tie <1%MIA 23%64% → 41% – 66%Playoffs

History

Final · Away4 OctBuffalo26New England±02944% → 44%PlayoffsFinal · Away27 SepJacksonville35New England▼ -9656% → 47%PlayoffsFinal · Home20 SepPittsburgh3New England▲ +112045% → 56%Playoffs
All results4 played
Final · Away4 OctBuffalo26New England±02944% → 44%PlayoffsFinal · Away27 SepJacksonville35New England▼ -9656% → 47%PlayoffsFinal · Home20 SepPittsburgh3New England▲ +112045% → 56%PlayoffsFinal · Away9 SepSeattle13New England10

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-10-06

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye8%

New England 12+ wins

Divisional Round
1New EnglandHomeWild Card Round winner4 Jacksonville or 5 Kansas City

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,499. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1New England1331
2Denver1340
3Cincinnati1340
4Jacksonville1160
5Kansas City1070
6Indianapolis980
7Buffalo980
-Houston980
-Las Vegas890
Win the division, host a Wild Card game34%

New England 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
3New EnglandHome6Jets

Alongside it: 2 Jacksonville v 7 Buffalo · 4 Denver v 5 Baltimore

  1. 83% of this route

  2. 17% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 5,675. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Cleveland1520
2Jacksonville1241
3New England1160
4Denver980
5Baltimore1160
6Jets1070
7Buffalo980
-Indianapolis980
-Houston890
Wild Card berth, on the road22%

New England 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
4Kansas CityHome5New England

Alongside it: 2 Baltimore v 7 Pittsburgh · 3 Buffalo v 6 Denver

  1. 73% of this route

  2. 27% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,234. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Jacksonville1430
2Baltimore1340
3Buffalo1250
4Kansas City1061
5New England1061
6Denver1061
7Pittsburgh980
-Cleveland980
-Chargers791
-Las Vegas7100
Miss the postseason36%