Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
21th by playoff odds32 clubs

Cincinnati

4th · 2-0-2
Playoffs38%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
13

Win the next 13 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
13

Lose the next 13 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSunday · Away1:00 PM EDTCincinnati38%PlayoffsMiami9%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 47%Tie <1%CIN 53%Win → 39% · Tie → 26% · Loss → 19%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Home4 OctJacksonville22Cincinnati±01749% → 49%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division15%
Bye3%
Conference2%
Super Bowl1%

4th in the table · 21th by playoff odds.

AFC North finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 4th. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 9th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Sunday · Away1:00 PM EDTCincinnati38%PlayoffsMiami9%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 47%Tie <1%CIN 53%Win → 39% · Tie → 26% · Loss → 19%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 25 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTBaltimore61%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 64%Tie <1%CIN 35%38% → 25% – 46%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTTennessee6%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 73%Tie <1%TEN 27%38% → 20% – 37%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Away9:30 AM ESTAtlanta51%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 55%Tie <1%CIN 45%38% → 25% – 44%Playoffs
Full schedule13 to play
Sunday · Away1:00 PM EDTMiami9%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 47%Tie <1%CIN 53%38% → 19% – 39%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTBaltimore61%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 64%Tie <1%CIN 35%38% → 25% – 46%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTTennessee6%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 73%Tie <1%TEN 27%38% → 20% – 37%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Away9:30 AM ESTAtlanta51%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 55%Tie <1%CIN 45%38% → 25% – 44%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Home8:20 PM ESTPittsburgh46%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 51%Tie <1%PIT 48%38% → 22% – 43%PlayoffsMon 23 Nov · Away8:15 PM ESTWashington18%PlayoffsMatch resultWAS 51%Tie <1%CIN 49%38% → 24% – 44%PlayoffsSun 29 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTNew Orleans21%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 63%Tie <1%NO 36%38% → 20% – 39%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTCleveland63%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 63%Tie <1%CIN 37%38% → 22% – 45%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Home4:25 PM ESTKansas City80%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 45%Tie <1%KC 55%38% → 20% – 40%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTCarolina47%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 59%Tie <1%CIN 41%38% → 24% – 44%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTIndianapolis40%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 58%Tie <1%CIN 42%38% → 23% – 44%PlayoffsThu 31 Dec · Home8:15 PM ESTBaltimore61%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 49%Tie <1%BAL 51%38% → 22% – 44%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTCleveland63%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 51%Tie <1%CLE 49%38% → 23% – 39%Playoffs

History

Final · Home4 OctJacksonville22Cincinnati±01749% → 49%PlayoffsFinal · Away27 SepPittsburgh30Cincinnati▼ -112763% → 52%PlayoffsFinal · Away20 SepHouston6Cincinnati▲ +152048% → 63%Playoffs
All results4 played
Final · Home4 OctJacksonville22Cincinnati±01749% → 49%PlayoffsFinal · Away27 SepPittsburgh30Cincinnati▼ -112763% → 52%PlayoffsFinal · Away20 SepHouston6Cincinnati▲ +152048% → 63%PlayoffsFinal · Home13 SepTampa Bay27Cincinnati▲ +83340% → 48%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-10-06

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye3%

Cincinnati 13+ wins

Divisional Round
1CincinnatiHomeWild Card Round winner4 Buffalo or 5 Baltimore

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 544. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Cincinnati1430
2Denver1340
3Houston1160
4Buffalo980
5Baltimore1250
6Las Vegas1160
7Jacksonville1070
-Kansas City1070
-Pittsburgh980
Win the division, host a Wild Card game12%

Cincinnati 10+ wins

Wild Card Round
2CincinnatiHome7Kansas City

Alongside it: 3 Tennessee v 6 Indianapolis · 4 Chargers v 5 Jacksonville

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,402. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1New England1250
2Cincinnati1250
3Tennessee1160
4Chargers1160
5Jacksonville1061
6Indianapolis1070
7Kansas City980
-Cleveland980
-Denver980
-Baltimore881
Wild Card berth, on the road23%

Cincinnati 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
2ClevelandHome7Cincinnati

Alongside it: 3 Jacksonville v 6 Buffalo · 4 Kansas City v 5 Pittsburgh

  1. 51% of this route

  2. 26% of this route

  3. 23% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,395. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1New England1250
2Cleveland1250
3Jacksonville1151
4Kansas City1151
5Pittsburgh1160
6Buffalo1061
7Cincinnati1061
-Denver971
-Chargers890
-Las Vegas791
-Indianapolis6101
Miss the postseason62%