Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
16th by playoff odds32 clubs

Pittsburgh

3rd · 2-0-2
Playoffs46%
Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
13

Lose the next 13 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSunday · Home1:00 PM EDTPittsburgh46%PlayoffsIndianapolis40%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 62%Tie <1%IND 38%Win → 58% · Tie → 48% · Loss → 35%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Away1 OctCleveland27Pittsburgh▼ -122457% → 45%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division19%
Bye4%
Conference5%
Super Bowl2%

3rd in the table · 16th by playoff odds.

AFC North finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 3rd. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 6th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Sunday · Home1:00 PM EDTPittsburgh46%PlayoffsIndianapolis40%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 62%Tie <1%IND 38%Win → 58% · Tie → 48% · Loss → 35%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 18 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTTampa Bay9%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 38%Tie <1%PIT 61%46% → 35% – 54%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Away9:30 AM EDTNew Orleans21%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 38%Tie <1%PIT 62%46% → 34% – 55%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTCleveland63%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 57%Tie <1%CLE 43%46% → 33% – 56%Playoffs
Full schedule13 to play
Sunday · Home1:00 PM EDTIndianapolis40%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 62%Tie <1%IND 38%46% → 35% – 58%PlayoffsSun 18 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTTampa Bay9%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 38%Tie <1%PIT 61%46% → 35% – 54%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Away9:30 AM EDTNew Orleans21%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 38%Tie <1%PIT 62%46% → 34% – 55%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTCleveland63%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 57%Tie <1%CLE 43%46% → 33% – 56%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Away8:20 PM ESTCincinnati38%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 51%Tie <1%PIT 48%46% → 33% – 57%PlayoffsSun 22 Nov · Away4:25 PM ESTPhiladelphia44%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 56%Tie <1%PIT 43%46% → 37% – 58%PlayoffsFri 27 Nov · Home3:00 PM ESTDenver58%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 50%Tie <1%DEN 49%46% → 35% – 58%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Home8:20 PM ESTHouston12%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 67%Tie <1%HOU 33%46% → 35% – 54%PlayoffsMon 14 Dec · Away8:15 PM ESTJacksonville81%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 67%Tie <1%PIT 33%46% → 40% – 59%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTBaltimore61%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 55%Tie <1%BAL 45%46% → 36% – 57%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTCarolina47%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 61%Tie <1%CAR 39%46% → 36% – 54%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTTennessee6%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 34%Tie <1%PIT 66%46% → 35% – 55%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTBaltimore61%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 59%Tie <1%PIT 41%46% → 38% – 60%Playoffs

History

Final · Away1 OctCleveland27Pittsburgh▼ -122457% → 45%PlayoffsFinal · Home27 SepCincinnati27Pittsburgh▲ +103049% → 59%PlayoffsFinal · Away20 SepNew England20Pittsburgh▼ -8357% → 49%Playoffs
All results4 played
Final · Away1 OctCleveland27Pittsburgh▼ -122457% → 45%PlayoffsFinal · Home27 SepCincinnati27Pittsburgh▲ +103049% → 59%PlayoffsFinal · Away20 SepNew England20Pittsburgh▼ -8357% → 49%PlayoffsFinal · Home13 SepAtlanta13Pittsburgh▲ +82050% → 58%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-10-06

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye4%

Pittsburgh 12+ wins

Divisional Round
1PittsburghHomeWild Card Round winner4 Jacksonville or 5 Cincinnati

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 816. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Pittsburgh1430
2Buffalo1250
3Kansas City1070
4Jacksonville1070
5Cincinnati1250
6Jets980
7New England980
-Cleveland980
-Denver980
Win the division, host a Wild Card game15%

Pittsburgh 10+ wins

Wild Card Round
3PittsburghHome6Houston

Alongside it: 2 Kansas City v 7 Cleveland · 4 Jacksonville v 5 Jets

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,998. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Buffalo1340
2Kansas City1250
3Pittsburgh1250
4Jacksonville1160
5Jets1070
6Houston980
7Cleveland980
-Baltimore881
-New England890
Wild Card berth, on the road27%

Pittsburgh 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
4Kansas CityHome5Pittsburgh

Alongside it: 2 Jacksonville v 7 Miami · 3 New England v 6 Denver

  1. 55% of this route

  2. 29% of this route

  3. 15% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,001. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Baltimore1520
2Jacksonville1430
3New England1160
4Kansas City1070
5Pittsburgh1061
6Denver1070
7Miami980
-Indianapolis980
-Las Vegas791
-Cincinnati7100
Miss the postseason54%