Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
30th by playoff odds32 clubs

Miami

4th · 0-0-4
Playoffs9%
Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
11

Lose the next 11 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSunday · Home1:00 PM EDTMiami9%PlayoffsCincinnati38%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 47%Tie <1%CIN 53%Win → <1% · Tie → <1% · Loss → <1%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Away4 OctMinnesota15Miami▼ -31012% → 9%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division5%
Bye<1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%

4th in the table · 30th by playoff odds.

AFC East finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 4th. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 16th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Sunday · Home1:00 PM EDTMiami9%PlayoffsCincinnati38%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 47%Tie <1%CIN 53%Win → <1% · Tie → <1% · Loss → <1%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 25 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTJets16%PlayoffsMatch resultNYJ 57%Tie <1%MIA 43%9% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Home4:25 PM ESTNew England64%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 34%Tie <1%NE 65%9% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTDetroit39%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 42%Tie <1%DET 57%9% → <1% – 1%Playoffs
Full schedule13 to play
Sunday · Home1:00 PM EDTCincinnati38%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 47%Tie <1%CIN 53%9% → 0% – 0%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTJets16%PlayoffsMatch resultNYJ 57%Tie <1%MIA 43%9% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Home4:25 PM ESTNew England64%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 34%Tie <1%NE 65%9% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTDetroit39%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 42%Tie <1%DET 57%9% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTIndianapolis40%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 67%Tie <1%MIA 32%9% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 22 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTBuffalo70%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 78%Tie <1%MIA 22%9% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 29 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTJets16%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 57%Tie <1%NYJ 42%9% → <1% – <1%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Away4:05 PM ESTDenver58%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 77%Tie <1%MIA 23%9% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTChicago59%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 35%Tie <1%CHI 64%9% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTGreen Bay38%PlayoffsMatch resultGB 70%Tie <1%MIA 29%9% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTChargers11%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 52%Tie <1%LAC 47%9% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTBuffalo70%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 34%Tie <1%BUF 66%9% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTNew England64%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 77%Tie <1%MIA 23%9% → 1% – 1%Playoffs

History

Final · Away4 OctMinnesota15Miami▼ -31012% → 9%PlayoffsFinal · Home27 SepKansas City24Miami▼ -81021% → 13%PlayoffsFinal · Away20 Sep49ers35Miami▼ -51326% → 21%Playoffs
All results4 played
Final · Away4 OctMinnesota15Miami▼ -31012% → 9%PlayoffsFinal · Home27 SepKansas City24Miami▼ -81021% → 13%PlayoffsFinal · Away20 Sep49ers35Miami▼ -51326% → 21%PlayoffsFinal · Away13 SepLas Vegas27Miami▼ -131339% → 26%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-10-06

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye<1%

A possible long-shot route: 16 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Miami 11+ wins

Win the division, host a Wild Card game4%

Miami 8+ wins

Wild Card Round
3MiamiHome6Buffalo

Alongside it: 2 Jacksonville v 7 Kansas City · 4 Denver v 5 Cleveland

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 897. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Pittsburgh1520
2Jacksonville1250
3Miami1070
4Denver980
5Cleveland1250
6Buffalo890
7Kansas City890
-Houston890
-Indianapolis890
-New England791
Wild Card berth, on the road5%

Miami 8+ wins

Wild Card Round
3ClevelandHome6Miami

Alongside it: 2 New England v 7 Kansas City · 4 Las Vegas v 5 Baltimore

  1. 59% of this route

    • above CincinnatiCincinnati out of the postseason (92%) · Cincinnati under 9.5 wins (94%)
    • above IndianapolisIndianapolis out of the postseason (94%) · Indianapolis under 9.5 wins (96%)

  2. 21% of this route

  3. 20% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 576. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Jacksonville1340
2New England1250
3Cleveland1250
4Las Vegas1160
5Baltimore1070
6Miami971
7Kansas City980
-Pittsburgh980
-Denver890
-Cincinnati7100
-Indianapolis6110
Miss the postseason91%