Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
4th by playoff odds32 clubs

Kansas City

1st · 4-0-0
Playoffs80%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
13

Win the next 13 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Next upSun 18 Oct · Home4:25 PM EDTKansas City80%PlayoffsChargers11%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 73%Tie <1%LAC 27%Win → 75% · Tie → 61% · Loss → 60%Division
Last resultFinal · Away4 OctLas Vegas27Kansas City▲ +163065% → 81%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division54%
Bye21%
Conference16%
Super Bowl8%

1st in the table · 4th by playoff odds.

AFC West finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 1st. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 1st. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Sun 18 Oct · Home4:25 PM EDTKansas City80%PlayoffsChargers11%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 73%Tie <1%LAC 27%Win → 75% · Tie → 61% · Loss → 60%Division

Upcoming

Sun 25 Oct · Away8:20 PM EDTSeattle66%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 62%Tie <1%KC 38%54% → 67% – 81%DivisionSun 1 Nov · Away4:25 PM ESTDenver58%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 57%Tie <1%KC 42%54% → 63% – 86%DivisionSun 8 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTJets16%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 77%Tie <1%NYJ 23%54% → 61% – 75%Division
Full schedule13 to play
Sun 18 Oct · Home4:25 PM EDTChargers11%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 73%Tie <1%LAC 27%54% → 60% – 75%DivisionSun 25 Oct · Away8:20 PM EDTSeattle66%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 62%Tie <1%KC 38%54% → 67% – 81%DivisionSun 1 Nov · Away4:25 PM ESTDenver58%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 57%Tie <1%KC 42%54% → 63% – 86%DivisionSun 8 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTJets16%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 77%Tie <1%NYJ 23%54% → 61% – 75%DivisionSun 15 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTAtlanta51%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 49%Tie <1%KC 50%54% → 66% – 79%DivisionSun 22 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTArizona10%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 76%Tie <1%ARI 23%54% → 63% – 77%DivisionThu 26 Nov · Away8:20 PM ESTBuffalo70%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 58%Tie <1%KC 41%54% → 71% – 83%DivisionThu 3 Dec · Away8:15 PM ESTRams49%PlayoffsMatch resultLAR 54%Tie <1%KC 45%54% → 71% – 83%DivisionSun 13 Dec · Away4:25 PM ESTCincinnati38%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 45%Tie <1%KC 55%54% → 67% – 82%DivisionMon 21 Dec · Home8:15 PM ESTNew England64%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 56%Tie <1%NE 43%54% → 65% – 80%DivisionSun 27 Dec · Home4:25 PM EST49ers80%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 50%Tie <1%SF 50%54% → 63% – 78%DivisionSun 3 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTChargers11%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 39%Tie <1%KC 60%54% → 60% – 76%DivisionSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTLas Vegas46%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 68%Tie <1%LV 32%54% → 55% – 76%Division

History

Final · Away4 OctLas Vegas27Kansas City▲ +163065% → 81%PlayoffsFinal · Away27 SepMiami10Kansas City▲ +122456% → 68%PlayoffsFinal · Home20 SepIndianapolis30Kansas City▲ +73349% → 56%Playoffs
All results4 played
Final · Away4 OctLas Vegas27Kansas City▲ +163065% → 81%PlayoffsFinal · Away27 SepMiami10Kansas City▲ +122456% → 68%PlayoffsFinal · Home20 SepIndianapolis30Kansas City▲ +73349% → 56%PlayoffsFinal · Home14 SepDenver10Kansas City▲ +133136% → 49%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-10-06

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye21%

Kansas City 13+ wins

Divisional Round
1Kansas CityHomeWild Card Round winner4 Buffalo or 5 Las Vegas

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,222. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Kansas City1421
2Cleveland1250
3Indianapolis1160
4Buffalo1070
5Las Vegas1340
6Baltimore1160
7Jacksonville1160
-Cincinnati1070
-Denver980
Win the division, host a Wild Card game33%

Kansas City 10+ wins

Wild Card Round
4Kansas CityHome5Indianapolis

Alongside it: 2 Buffalo v 7 Denver · 3 Jacksonville v 6 Baltimore

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 6,503. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Cleveland1430
2Buffalo1331
3Jacksonville1340
4Kansas City1250
5Indianapolis1160
6Baltimore1070
7Denver980
-Las Vegas890
-New England890
Wild Card berth, on the road26%

Kansas City 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
3JacksonvilleHome6Kansas City

Alongside it: 2 Denver v 7 Las Vegas · 4 Buffalo v 5 Cleveland

  1. 46% of this route

  2. 36% of this route

  3. 19% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,397. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Cincinnati1430
2Denver1250
3Jacksonville1250
4Buffalo890
5Cleveland1250
6Kansas City1061
7Las Vegas1070
-Pittsburgh980
-Baltimore7100
Miss the postseason20%

Kansas City under 9.5 wins

  1. 65% of this route

  2. 21% of this route

  3. 14% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,595. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Baltimore1151
2Las Vegas1061
3Indianapolis1070
4Buffalo890
5Denver1070
6Tennessee1070
7Cleveland980
-Cincinnati890
-New England890
-Kansas City791