Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
27th by playoff odds32 clubs

Kansas City

27th by playoff odds · 0-0-0
Playoffs24%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
17

Win the next 17 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
17

Lose the next 17 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upMon 14 Sep · Home8:15 PM EDTKansas City24%PlayoffsDenver79%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 22%Tie <1%DEN 78%Win → 15% · Tie → 9% · Loss → 6%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division9%
Bye1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%

27th by playoff odds.

AFC West finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 3rd. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 14th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game and what follows it. Nothing has been played yet.

Next up

Mon 14 Sep · Home8:15 PM EDTKansas City24%PlayoffsDenver79%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 22%Tie <1%DEN 78%Win → 15% · Tie → 9% · Loss → 6%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 20 Sep · Home8:20 PM EDTIndianapolis33%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 53%Tie <1%IND 47%24% → 4% – 11%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTMiami30%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 62%Tie <1%KC 38%24% → 4% – 12%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Away4:25 PM EDTLas Vegas10%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 40%Tie <1%KC 59%24% → 4% – 11%Playoffs
Full schedule17 to play
Mon 14 Sep · Home8:15 PM EDTDenver79%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 22%Tie <1%DEN 78%24% → 6% – 15%PlayoffsSun 20 Sep · Home8:20 PM EDTIndianapolis33%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 53%Tie <1%IND 47%24% → 4% – 11%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTMiami30%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 62%Tie <1%KC 38%24% → 4% – 12%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Away4:25 PM EDTLas Vegas10%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 40%Tie <1%KC 59%24% → 4% – 11%PlayoffsSun 18 Oct · Home4:25 PM EDTChargers57%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 34%Tie <1%LAC 66%24% → 5% – 14%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Away8:20 PM EDTSeattle80%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 88%Tie <1%KC 12%24% → 7% – 16%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away4:25 PM ESTDenver79%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 86%Tie <1%KC 14%24% → 7% – 16%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTJets13%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 69%Tie <1%NYJ 31%24% → 4% – 10%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTAtlanta48%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 68%Tie <1%KC 31%24% → 6% – 13%PlayoffsSun 22 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTArizona8%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 71%Tie <1%ARI 29%24% → 4% – 10%PlayoffsThu 26 Nov · Away8:20 PM ESTBuffalo63%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 80%Tie <1%KC 19%24% → 6% – 16%PlayoffsThu 3 Dec · Away8:15 PM ESTRams60%PlayoffsMatch resultLAR 79%Tie <1%KC 20%24% → 6% – 14%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Away4:25 PM ESTCincinnati32%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 58%Tie <1%KC 42%24% → 4% – 12%PlayoffsMon 21 Dec · Home8:15 PM ESTNew England67%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 27%Tie <1%NE 73%24% → 5% – 13%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Home4:25 PM EST49ers61%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 31%Tie <1%SF 68%24% → 5% – 11%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTChargers57%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 77%Tie <1%KC 22%24% → 4% – 12%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTLas Vegas10%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 72%Tie <1%LV 28%24% → 5% – 10%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-08-13

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye1%

Kansas City 13+ wins

Divisional Round
1Kansas CityHomeWild Card Round winner4 Houston or 5 Chargers

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 237. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Kansas City1430
2New England1241
3Pittsburgh1250
4Houston1160
5Chargers1340
6Buffalo1160
7Denver1070
-Miami881
-Tennessee7100
Win the division, host a Wild Card game8%

Kansas City 9.5+ wins

Wild Card Round
2Kansas CityHome7Houston

Alongside it: 3 New England v 6 Indianapolis · 4 Jacksonville v 5 Las Vegas

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,548. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Pittsburgh1520
2Kansas City1151
3New England1160
4Jacksonville1070
5Las Vegas1070
6Indianapolis1070
7Houston1070
-Buffalo1070
-Denver881
-Chargers890
Wild Card berth, on the road15%

Kansas City 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
3BuffaloHome6Kansas City

Alongside it: 2 Houston v 7 Chargers · 4 Pittsburgh v 5 Jacksonville

  1. 67% of this route

    • above IndianapolisIndianapolis out of the postseason (91%) · Indianapolis 1+ game back (93%)
    • above MiamiMiami out of the postseason (94%) · Miami 1+ game back (97%)

  2. 18% of this route

  3. 16% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,964. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Denver1421
2Houston1430
3Buffalo1250
4Pittsburgh1250
5Jacksonville1160
6Kansas City1061
7Chargers1070
-Baltimore980
-Las Vegas890
-Indianapolis6110
-Miami6110
Miss the postseason76%

Kansas City under 9.5 wins

  1. 74% of this route

  2. 26% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 11,256. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Buffalo1700
2Pittsburgh1520
3Houston1160
4Las Vegas1160
5Cincinnati1250
6Chargers1070
7Denver1070
-Indianapolis980
-New England980
-Kansas City5120