Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
4th by playoff odds32 clubs

Jacksonville

4th by playoff odds · 0-0-0
Playoffs70%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
17

Win the next 17 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
17

Lose the next 17 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTJacksonville70%PlayoffsCleveland30%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 84%Tie <1%CLE 16%Win → 49% · Tie → 36% · Loss → 35%Division

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division39%
Bye14%
Conference14%
Super Bowl8%

4th by playoff odds.

AFC South finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 1st. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 1st. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game and what follows it. Nothing has been played yet.

Next up

Sun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTJacksonville70%PlayoffsCleveland30%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 84%Tie <1%CLE 16%Win → 49% · Tie → 36% · Loss → 35%Division

Upcoming

Sun 20 Sep · Away4:05 PM EDTDenver79%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 64%Tie <1%JAX 36%39% → 41% – 55%DivisionSun 27 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTNew England67%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 57%Tie <1%NE 43%39% → 38% – 52%DivisionSun 4 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTCincinnati32%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 28%Tie <1%JAX 72%39% → 35% – 49%Division
Full schedule17 to play
Sun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTCleveland30%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 84%Tie <1%CLE 16%39% → 35% – 49%DivisionSun 20 Sep · Away4:05 PM EDTDenver79%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 64%Tie <1%JAX 36%39% → 41% – 55%DivisionSun 27 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTNew England67%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 57%Tie <1%NE 43%39% → 38% – 52%DivisionSun 4 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTCincinnati32%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 28%Tie <1%JAX 72%39% → 35% – 49%DivisionSun 11 Oct · Home9:30 AM EDTPhiladelphia65%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 64%Tie <1%PHI 36%39% → 36% – 50%DivisionSun 18 Oct · Home9:30 AM EDTHouston76%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 54%Tie <1%HOU 46%39% → 32% – 60%DivisionSun 1 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTIndianapolis33%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 80%Tie <1%IND 20%39% → 36% – 51%DivisionThu 5 Nov · Away8:15 PM ESTBaltimore48%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 39%Tie <1%JAX 61%39% → 38% – 53%DivisionSun 15 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTTennessee14%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 18%Tie <1%JAX 82%39% → 35% – 49%DivisionSun 22 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTGiants18%PlayoffsMatch resultNYG 21%Tie <1%JAX 78%39% → 36% – 50%DivisionSun 29 Nov · Home4:05 PM ESTTennessee14%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 89%Tie <1%TEN 11%39% → 34% – 48%DivisionSun 6 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTChicago48%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 47%Tie <1%JAX 53%39% → 39% – 54%DivisionMon 14 Dec · Home8:15 PM ESTPittsburgh57%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 67%Tie <1%PIT 32%39% → 35% – 50%DivisionSun 20 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTHouston76%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 60%Tie <1%JAX 40%39% → 32% – 62%DivisionSun 27 Dec · Away8:20 PM ESTDallas34%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 31%Tie <1%JAX 68%39% → 33% – 46%DivisionSun 3 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTWashington25%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 83%Tie <1%WAS 17%39% → 31% – 42%DivisionSun 10 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTIndianapolis33%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 31%Tie <1%JAX 69%39% → 32% – 45%Division

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-08-13

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye14%

Jacksonville 14+ wins

Divisional Round
1JacksonvilleHomeWild Card Round winner4 Denver or 5 Cincinnati

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,736. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Jacksonville1520
2New England1520
3Pittsburgh1340
4Denver1070
5Cincinnati1250
6Buffalo1160
7Houston1070
-Miami980
-Chargers980
Win the division, host a Wild Card game25%

Jacksonville 10.5+ wins

Wild Card Round
2JacksonvilleHome7Cleveland

Alongside it: 3 Baltimore v 6 Miami · 4 New England v 5 Pittsburgh

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 5,091. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Chargers1430
2Jacksonville1241
3Baltimore1250
4New England1250
5Pittsburgh1250
6Miami1070
7Cleveland980
-Houston980
-Jets980
-Indianapolis7100
Wild Card berth, on the road31%

Jacksonville 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
3BaltimoreHome6Jacksonville

Alongside it: 2 Denver v 7 Las Vegas · 4 Miami v 5 Pittsburgh

  1. 58% of this route

  2. 27% of this route

  3. 15% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,599. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Houston1430
2Denver1340
3Baltimore1250
4Miami980
5Pittsburgh1250
6Jacksonville1160
7Las Vegas1160
-Chargers1160
-Buffalo7100
Miss the postseason30%

Jacksonville under 10.5 wins

  1. 69% of this route

  2. 31% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,130. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Pittsburgh1520
2Denver1250
3Houston1250
4New England1250
5Jets1250
6Buffalo1160
7Baltimore1070
-Indianapolis1070
-Chargers980
-Jacksonville7100