NFL · 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars1st AFC South - .750 pct vSun 3 Jan, 1:00 PM EST Washington Commanders4th NFC East - .250 pct
Match resultJacksonville 76%Tie <1%Washington 23%
What this game means
The three ways this game can go. Pick a result to see where it leaves every race each club is in.
At projected kickoff, this game is expected to move their regular-season chances by 3% on average. The result scenarios below are conditional on today's forecast cutoff, showing where each result leads from this forecast.
The result is worth up to 10 points in the Division race.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Playoffs81%
Division68%
Conferenceseason odds20%
Super Bowlseason odds11%
Byeseason odds19%
Washington Commanders
Playoffs18%
Division9%
Jacksonville winDivisionJacksonville Jaguars68%90%▲ +22Washington Commanders9%4%▼ -5
TieDivisionJacksonville Jaguars68%81%▲ +13Washington Commanders9%9%±0
Washington winDivisionJacksonville Jaguars68%81%▲ +13Washington Commanders9%9%±0
The race they're in
Two races at once: their division, and the wild card behind it.
AFC South · winner qualifies direct
DivisionW-L-TPCTGB
1JacksonvilleDivision68%3-1-0.750-2IndianapolisDivision24%2-2-0.50013*TennesseeDivision3%0-4-0.0003NFC East · winner qualifies direct
DivisionW-L-TPCTGB
1GiantsDivision34%3-1-0.750-2PhiladelphiaDivision33%2-2-0.50014WashingtonDivision9%1-3-0.2502The wild card · top 7 in the AFC qualify
PlayoffsW-L-TPCTWCGB
2JacksonvillePlayoffs81%3-1-0.7507New EnglandPlayoffs64%2-2-0.500Playoff line
8DenverPlayoffs58%2-2-0.500The wild card · top 7 in the NFC qualify
PlayoffsW-L-TPCTWCGB
7CarolinaPlayoffs47%2-2-0.500Playoff line
8AtlantaPlayoffs51%2-2-0.50013WashingtonPlayoffs18%1-3-0.250