Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
19th by playoff odds32 clubs

Indianapolis

2nd · 2-0-2
Playoffs40%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
13

Win the next 13 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
13

Lose the next 13 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSunday · Away1:00 PM EDTIndianapolis40%PlayoffsPittsburgh46%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 62%Tie <1%IND 38%Win → 47% · Tie → 36% · Loss → 24%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Away4 OctWashington13Indianapolis▲ +93031% → 40%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division24%
Bye2%
Conference3%
Super Bowl1%

2nd in the table · 19th by playoff odds.

AFC South finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 2nd. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 4th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Sunday · Away1:00 PM EDTIndianapolis40%PlayoffsPittsburgh46%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 62%Tie <1%IND 38%Win → 47% · Tie → 36% · Loss → 24%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 18 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTTennessee6%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 74%Tie <1%TEN 26%40% → 18% – 38%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTMinnesota83%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 73%Tie <1%IND 27%40% → 27% – 49%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTJacksonville81%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 71%Tie <1%IND 29%40% → 27% – 50%Playoffs
Full schedule13 to play
Sunday · Away1:00 PM EDTPittsburgh46%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 62%Tie <1%IND 38%40% → 24% – 47%PlayoffsSun 18 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTTennessee6%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 74%Tie <1%TEN 26%40% → 18% – 38%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTMinnesota83%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 73%Tie <1%IND 27%40% → 27% – 49%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTJacksonville81%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 71%Tie <1%IND 29%40% → 27% – 50%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTDallas37%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 57%Tie <1%DAL 43%40% → 24% – 43%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTMiami9%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 67%Tie <1%MIA 32%40% → 23% – 42%PlayoffsThu 19 Nov · Away8:15 PM ESTHouston12%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 51%Tie <1%IND 48%40% → 27% – 47%PlayoffsSun 29 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTGiants47%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 57%Tie <1%NYG 43%40% → 26% – 46%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTPhiladelphia44%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 61%Tie <1%IND 39%40% → 31% – 52%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTTennessee6%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 38%Tie <1%IND 61%40% → 28% – 50%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTCincinnati38%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 58%Tie <1%CIN 42%40% → 28% – 52%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTCleveland63%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 62%Tie <1%IND 38%40% → 33% – 57%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTJacksonville81%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 42%Tie <1%JAX 58%40% → 29% – 52%Playoffs

History

Final · Away4 OctWashington13Indianapolis▲ +93031% → 40%PlayoffsFinal · Home27 SepHouston17Indianapolis▲ +81924% → 32%PlayoffsFinal · Away20 SepKansas City33Indianapolis▼ -73031% → 24%Playoffs
All results4 played
Final · Away4 OctWashington13Indianapolis▲ +93031% → 40%PlayoffsFinal · Home27 SepHouston17Indianapolis▲ +81924% → 32%PlayoffsFinal · Away20 SepKansas City33Indianapolis▼ -73031% → 24%PlayoffsFinal · Home13 SepBaltimore41Indianapolis▼ -112340% → 29%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-10-06

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye2%

Indianapolis 12+ wins

Divisional Round
1IndianapolisHomeWild Card Round winner4 Las Vegas or 5 New England

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 435. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Indianapolis1331
2Buffalo1340
3Baltimore1340
4Las Vegas1250
5New England1160
6Kansas City1160
7Jacksonville980
-Pittsburgh980
-Houston890
Win the division, host a Wild Card game21%

Indianapolis 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
4IndianapolisHome5Baltimore

Alongside it: 2 Kansas City v 7 Cincinnati · 3 Buffalo v 6 Denver

  1. 88% of this route

  2. 12% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,744. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Pittsburgh1520
2Kansas City1421
3Buffalo1160
4Indianapolis1160
5Baltimore1160
6Denver1061
7Cincinnati1070
-Jacksonville980
-Las Vegas881
Wild Card berth, on the road17%

Indianapolis 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
3DenverHome6Indianapolis

Alongside it: 2 Jacksonville v 7 New England · 4 Buffalo v 5 Kansas City

  1. 55% of this route

  2. 27% of this route

  3. 18% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,816. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Cleveland1430
2Jacksonville1340
3Denver1250
4Buffalo1250
5Kansas City1160
6Indianapolis1070
7New England980
-Baltimore7100
-Cincinnati7100
-Pittsburgh7100
Miss the postseason60%

Indianapolis under 9.5 wins

  1. 61% of this route

  2. 19% of this route

  3. 19% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 7,355. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Las Vegas1340
2Jacksonville1250
3New England1250
4Pittsburgh971
5Buffalo1250
6Denver1160
7Cincinnati971
-Cleveland980
-Houston980
-Indianapolis6110