Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
21th by playoff odds32 clubs

Indianapolis

21th by playoff odds · 0-0-0
Playoffs33%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
17

Win the next 17 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
17

Lose the next 17 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTIndianapolis33%PlayoffsBaltimore48%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 48%Tie <1%BAL 52%Win → 29% · Tie → 22% · Loss → 15%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division11%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%

21th by playoff odds.

AFC South finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 3rd. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 11th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game and what follows it. Nothing has been played yet.

Next up

Sun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTIndianapolis33%PlayoffsBaltimore48%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 48%Tie <1%BAL 52%Win → 29% · Tie → 22% · Loss → 15%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 20 Sep · Away8:20 PM EDTKansas City24%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 53%Tie <1%IND 47%33% → 13% – 28%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTHouston76%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 28%Tie <1%HOU 71%33% → 17% – 34%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Away9:30 AM EDTWashington25%PlayoffsMatch resultWAS 52%Tie <1%IND 48%33% → 15% – 29%Playoffs
Full schedule17 to play
Sun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTBaltimore48%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 48%Tie <1%BAL 52%33% → 15% – 29%PlayoffsSun 20 Sep · Away8:20 PM EDTKansas City24%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 53%Tie <1%IND 47%33% → 13% – 28%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTHouston76%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 28%Tie <1%HOU 71%33% → 17% – 34%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Away9:30 AM EDTWashington25%PlayoffsMatch resultWAS 52%Tie <1%IND 48%33% → 15% – 29%PlayoffsSun 11 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTPittsburgh57%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 72%Tie <1%IND 28%33% → 18% – 35%PlayoffsSun 18 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTTennessee14%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 73%Tie <1%TEN 27%33% → 12% – 25%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTMinnesota54%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 73%Tie <1%IND 27%33% → 18% – 33%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTJacksonville70%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 80%Tie <1%IND 20%33% → 18% – 35%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTDallas34%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 56%Tie <1%DAL 43%33% → 15% – 28%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTMiami30%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 56%Tie <1%MIA 43%33% → 15% – 29%PlayoffsThu 19 Nov · Away8:15 PM ESTHouston76%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 82%Tie <1%IND 18%33% → 19% – 35%PlayoffsSun 29 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTGiants18%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 68%Tie <1%NYG 31%33% → 14% – 26%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTPhiladelphia65%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 75%Tie <1%IND 25%33% → 20% – 35%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTTennessee14%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 39%Tie <1%IND 61%33% → 15% – 28%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTCincinnati32%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 60%Tie <1%CIN 39%33% → 14% – 26%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTCleveland30%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 50%Tie <1%IND 50%33% → 16% – 28%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTJacksonville70%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 31%Tie <1%JAX 69%33% → 18% – 33%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-08-13

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye2%

Indianapolis 13+ wins

Divisional Round
1IndianapolisHomeWild Card Round winner4 Denver or 5 Baltimore

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 454. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Indianapolis1520
2Pittsburgh1430
3New England1160
4Denver1160
5Baltimore1331
6Houston1070
7Buffalo971
-Jets971
-Miami881
Win the division, host a Wild Card game9%

Indianapolis 10+ wins

Wild Card Round
2IndianapolisHome7Houston

Alongside it: 3 Baltimore v 6 Cincinnati · 4 Denver v 5 Jets

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,706. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1New England1610
2Indianapolis1250
3Baltimore1250
4Denver1160
5Jets1250
6Cincinnati1070
7Houston980
-Tennessee890
-Jacksonville890
Wild Card berth, on the road22%

Indianapolis 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
3New EnglandHome6Indianapolis

Alongside it: 2 Denver v 7 Chargers · 4 Pittsburgh v 5 Las Vegas

  1. 73% of this route

    • above Kansas CityKansas City out of the postseason (94%) · Kansas City 1+ game back (97%)
    • above MiamiMiami out of the postseason (91%) · Miami 1+ game back (96%)

  2. 14% of this route

  3. 12% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,205. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Houston1430
2Denver1430
3New England1250
4Pittsburgh1070
5Las Vegas1250
6Indianapolis1160
7Chargers1070
-Cleveland1070
-Jacksonville980
-Kansas City6110
-Miami6110
Miss the postseason67%

Indianapolis under 9.5 wins

  1. 47% of this route

  2. 33% of this route

  3. 21% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 6,292. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Jacksonville1250
2Baltimore1160
3New England1070
4Denver980
5Buffalo980
6Pittsburgh980
7Cincinnati980
-Miami881
-Cleveland890
-Kansas City890
-Indianapolis4130