Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
3rd by playoff odds32 clubs

Houston

3rd by playoff odds · 0-0-0
Playoffs76%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
17

Win the next 17 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
17

Lose the next 17 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTHouston76%PlayoffsBuffalo63%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 63%Tie <1%BUF 37%Win → 57% · Tie → 56% · Loss → 42%Division

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division47%
Bye17%
Conference19%
Super Bowl11%

3rd by playoff odds.

AFC South finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 1st. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 1st. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game and what follows it. Nothing has been played yet.

Next up

Sun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTHouston76%PlayoffsBuffalo63%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 63%Tie <1%BUF 37%Win → 57% · Tie → 56% · Loss → 42%Division

Upcoming

Sun 20 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTCincinnati32%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 84%Tie <1%CIN 16%47% → 41% – 53%DivisionSun 27 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTIndianapolis33%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 28%Tie <1%HOU 71%47% → 42% – 56%DivisionSun 4 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTDallas34%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 81%Tie <1%DAL 19%47% → 42% – 55%Division
Full schedule17 to play
Sun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTBuffalo63%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 63%Tie <1%BUF 37%47% → 42% – 57%DivisionSun 20 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTCincinnati32%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 84%Tie <1%CIN 16%47% → 41% – 53%DivisionSun 27 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTIndianapolis33%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 28%Tie <1%HOU 71%47% → 42% – 56%DivisionSun 4 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTDallas34%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 81%Tie <1%DAL 19%47% → 42% – 55%DivisionSun 11 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTTennessee14%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 16%Tie <1%HOU 84%47% → 40% – 55%DivisionSun 18 Oct · Away9:30 AM EDTJacksonville70%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 54%Tie <1%HOU 46%47% → 37% – 66%DivisionSun 25 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTGiants18%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 88%Tie <1%NYG 12%47% → 37% – 51%DivisionSun 8 Nov · Away4:05 PM ESTChargers57%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 46%Tie <1%HOU 53%47% → 43% – 57%DivisionSun 15 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTCleveland30%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 23%Tie <1%HOU 77%47% → 39% – 54%DivisionThu 19 Nov · Home8:15 PM ESTIndianapolis33%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 82%Tie <1%IND 18%47% → 37% – 54%DivisionSun 29 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTBaltimore48%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 75%Tie <1%BAL 24%47% → 39% – 55%DivisionSun 6 Dec · Away8:20 PM ESTPittsburgh57%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 43%Tie <1%HOU 57%47% → 41% – 57%DivisionSun 13 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTWashington25%PlayoffsMatch resultWAS 24%Tie <1%HOU 75%47% → 37% – 53%DivisionSun 20 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTJacksonville70%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 60%Tie <1%JAX 40%47% → 34% – 64%DivisionThu 24 Dec · Away8:15 PM ESTPhiladelphia65%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 47%Tie <1%HOU 53%47% → 46% – 62%DivisionMon 4 Jan · Away8:15 PM ESTGreen Bay43%PlayoffsMatch resultGB 39%Tie <1%HOU 60%47% → 44% – 60%DivisionSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTTennessee14%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 90%Tie <1%TEN 10%47% → 41% – 57%Division

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-08-13

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye17%

Houston 14+ wins

Divisional Round
1HoustonHomeWild Card Round winner4 Denver or 5 Indianapolis

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,377. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Houston1520
2Jets1430
3Pittsburgh1340
4Denver1160
5Indianapolis1250
6New England1061
7Jacksonville971
-Buffalo980
-Tennessee980
Win the division, host a Wild Card game30%

Houston 10.5+ wins

Wild Card Round
4HoustonHome5Buffalo

Alongside it: 2 Chargers v 7 Denver · 3 New England v 6 Jacksonville

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 5,924. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Pittsburgh1520
2Chargers1340
3New England1340
4Houston1241
5Buffalo1250
6Jacksonville980
7Denver980
-Baltimore890
-Cleveland890
-Indianapolis7100
Wild Card berth, on the road29%

Houston 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
4BuffaloHome5Houston

Alongside it: 2 Jacksonville v 7 New England · 3 Denver v 6 Miami

  1. 53% of this route

  2. 29% of this route

  3. 19% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,051. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Baltimore1520
2Jacksonville1331
3Denver1340
4Buffalo1160
5Houston1160
6Miami1160
7New England980
-Cincinnati890
-Las Vegas890
Miss the postseason24%