MLS · 2026
updated today · as of 20 Aug 2026
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MLS
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The MLS Cup race
The chance of winning the MLS Cup, over the same simulated seasons the rest of the page is drawn from. One club wins it, so every club's number is its own slice of one trophy and they add to 100%.
The chance of winning the MLS Cup, over the same simulated seasons the rest of the page is drawn from. One club wins it, so every club's number is its own slice of one trophy and they add to 100%.
Who ends the season with it, before the full table below.
The other 18 clubs share 5% of the MLS Cup between them.
Realistic chance12 of 30 clubs
Biggest gameTonight 10:30 PM EDTEvery club with at least 1% of the MLS Cup.
Portland v San Diego
The race
Chances by conference, each cut on its own line. Every conference carries 15 clubs.
Eastern Conference
PlayoffsPW-D-LGDPTSConferenceSupporters' ShieldMLS Cup
1NashvillePlayoffs>99%2014-4-22546Conference76%
Supporters' Shield63%
MLS Cup21%
Conference24%
Supporters' Shield18%
MLS Cup24%
Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup1%
Conference1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup3%
Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup5%
Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup2%
Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup1%
Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup<1%
Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup<1%
Playoff line - top 9
10OrlandoPlayoffs60%196-3-10-1721Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup<1%
Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup<1%
Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup<1%
Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup<1%
Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup<1%
Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup<1%
Western Conference
PlayoffsPW-D-LGDPTSConferenceSupporters' ShieldMLS Cup
1VancouverPlayoffs>99%1811-4-32337Conference77%
Supporters' Shield18%
MLS Cup19%
Conference9%
Supporters' Shield1%
MLS Cup5%
Conference9%
Supporters' Shield1%
MLS Cup8%
Conference1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup2%
Conference2%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup3%
Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup1%
Conference1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup1%
Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup<1%
Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup<1%
Playoff line - top 9
10PortlandPlayoffs49%197-3-9-124Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup<1%
Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup1%
Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup1%
Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup<1%
Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup<1%
Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup<1%
Games that matter
The next 7 days, and what each result would do to each club - on the race labelled beside it.
In progressStarted 10:30 PM EDTPortlandSan DiegoSaturday10:30 PM EDTSan Diego56% → 43% – 68%PlayoffsColorado37% → 27% – 51%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 54%Draw 24%COL 22%12th and 8th in the West.Saturday7:30 PM EDTOrlando60% → 46% – 68%PlayoffsSalt Lake85% → 83% – 95%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 44%Draw 26%RSL 30%10th in the East, 7th in the West.In progressStarted 9:30 PM EDTColoradoLAFC
More games that matter4 more
Saturday8:30 PM EDTNashville63% → 48% – 65%Supporters' ShieldColumbus26% → 22% – 41%PlayoffsMatch resultNSH 60%Draw 22%CLB 18%1st and 12th in the East.Saturday10:30 PM EDTSan Jose91% → 86% – 97%PlayoffsMinnesota43% → 29% – 52%PlayoffsMatch resultSJ 42%Draw 26%MIN 32%4th and 9th in the West.In progressStarted 10:30 PM EDTVancouverHoustonSaturday8:30 PM EDTSt. Louis74% → 61% – 81%PlayoffsHouston9% → 5% – 12%ConferenceMatch resultSTL 39%Draw 27%HOU 34%6th and 2nd in the West.
How the race got here
The season behind today's table, told two ways.
The trajectory
Playoff odds at every published forecast. The six biggest movers are drawn; tap any club to add it.
Show a club
Turning points
The results that changed a race. Each names the race it moved, and links to its game.
22 JULSt. Louis win 3-1 at LA GalaxyPlayoffs: 31% → 43%.22 JULOrlando win 4-0 at San JosePlayoffs: 37% → 48%.15 AUGSan Diego win 1-0 at LAFCPlayoffs: 34% → 46%.19 AUGNY Red Bulls lose 1-0 to NashvillePlayoffs: 59% → 44%.19 AUGMinnesota lose 2-1 to AtlantaPlayoffs: 61% → 38%.
The published forecast record begins 18 Jul 2026.