Magic Number.
MLS · 2026
7th by playoff odds30 clubs

Cincinnati

5th · 8-6-6 · 30 pts
Playoffs99%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
12

Win the next 12 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Next upSaturday · Home7:30 PM EDTCincinnati99%PlayoffsSeattle64%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 53%Draw 24%SEA 23%Win → 99% · Draw → 98% · Loss → 98%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Home19 AugNY City1Cincinnati▲ +4295% → 99%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup5%

5th in the table · 7th by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish
1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 4th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Home7:30 PM EDTCincinnati99%PlayoffsSeattle64%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 53%Draw 24%SEA 23%Win → 99% · Draw → 98% · Loss → 98%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sat 29 Aug · Away8:30 PM EDTNashville>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNSH 49%Draw 25%CIN 26%99% → 98% – >99%PlayoffsSat 5 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTDC27%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 62%Draw 21%DC 17%99% → 97% – 99%PlayoffsWed 9 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTPhiladelphia36%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 36%Draw 27%CIN 37%99% → 98% – >99%Playoffs
Full schedule14 to play
Saturday · Home7:30 PM EDTSeattle64%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 53%Draw 24%SEA 23%99% → 98% – 99%PlayoffsSat 29 Aug · Away8:30 PM EDTNashville>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNSH 49%Draw 25%CIN 26%99% → 98% – >99%PlayoffsSat 5 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTDC27%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 62%Draw 21%DC 17%99% → 97% – 99%PlayoffsWed 9 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTPhiladelphia36%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 36%Draw 27%CIN 37%99% → 98% – >99%PlayoffsSat 12 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTCharlotte95%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 50%Draw 25%CLT 25%99% → 98% – >99%PlayoffsSat 19 Sep · Away8:30 PM EDTHouston99%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 40%Draw 27%CIN 33%99% → 98% – >99%PlayoffsSat 26 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTMontreal8%PlayoffsMatch resultMTL 27%Draw 26%CIN 47%99% → 98% – 99%PlayoffsSat 10 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTAtlanta6%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 26%Draw 25%CIN 49%99% → 98% – >99%PlayoffsWed 14 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTNew England96%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 57%Draw 23%NE 20%99% → 97% – >99%PlayoffsSun 18 Oct · Home7:00 PM EDTColumbus26%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 57%Draw 23%CLB 20%99% → 98% – >99%PlayoffsSat 24 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTDC27%PlayoffsMatch resultDC 28%Draw 26%CIN 46%99% → 98% – >99%PlayoffsWed 28 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTMiami>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 53%Draw 24%CIN 23%99% → 98% – >99%PlayoffsSat 31 Oct · Home2:00 PM EDTPhiladelphia36%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 54%Draw 24%PHI 22%99% → 97% – >99%PlayoffsSat 7 Nov · Home4:00 PM ESTNashville>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 41%Draw 27%NSH 32%99% → 99% – >99%Playoffs

History

Final · Home19 AugNY City1Cincinnati▲ +4295% → 99%PlayoffsFinal · Away15 AugOrlando1Cincinnati±0195% → 95%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugSan Jose2Cincinnati▲ +1490% → 91%Playoffs
All results20 played
Final · Home19 AugNY City1Cincinnati▲ +4295% → 99%PlayoffsFinal · Away15 AugOrlando1Cincinnati±0195% → 95%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugSan Jose2Cincinnati▲ +1490% → 91%PlayoffsFinal · Away25 JulColumbus2Cincinnati±0197% → 97%PlayoffsFinal · Home22 JulVancouver3Cincinnati▲ +5492% → 97%PlayoffsFinal · Home23 MayOrlando2Cincinnati6Final · Away16 MaySan Diego3Cincinnati3Final · Home13 MayMiami5Cincinnati3Final · Away9 MayCharlotte2Cincinnati2Final · Away2 MayChicago2Cincinnati3Final · Home25 AprNY Red Bulls0Cincinnati2Final · Away22 AprNY City4Cincinnati4Final · Home18 AprChicago3Cincinnati3Final · Away11 AprToronto1Cincinnati1Final · Away4 AprNY Red Bulls4Cincinnati2Final · Home22 MarMontreal3Cincinnati4Final · Away15 MarNew England6Cincinnati1Final · Home8 MarToronto1Cincinnati0Final · Away28 FebMinnesota1Cincinnati0Final · Home21 FebAtlanta0Cincinnati2

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-02-232026-08-20

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home51%

Cincinnati 52+ points

Round One
3CincinnatiHome6Charlotte

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 2 Miami v 7 NY Red Bulls · 4 Chicago v 5 New England

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 10,238. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Nashville69
2Miami65
3Cincinnati56
4Chicago51
5New England49
6Charlotte49
7NY Red Bulls47
8Orlando43
9NY City42
-DC39
-Toronto38
Reach Round One directly, on the road42%

Cincinnati 45+ points

Round One
3MiamiHome6Cincinnati

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 2 Chicago v 7 DC · 4 Charlotte v 5 New England

  1. 36% of this route

  2. 36% of this route

  3. 28% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,014. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Nashville78
2Chicago64
3Miami63
4Charlotte53
5New England53
6Cincinnati49
7DC46
8NY City42
9Orlando40
-NY Red Bulls39
-Columbus37
Host the Wild Card game4%
Play the Wild Card game away2%
Miss the postseason1%