Magic Number - Charlotte 2026

Playoffs95%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

12

Win the next 12 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Next upSaturday · Home7:30 PM EDTCharlotte95%PlayoffsDC27%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 57%Draw 23%DC 20%Win → 98% · Draw → 95% · Loss → 91%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Away19 AugToronto3Charlotte±0395% → 95%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%

Supporters' Shield<1%

MLS Cup2%

6th in the table · 9th by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 5th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Home7:30 PM EDTCharlotte95%PlayoffsDC27%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 57%Draw 23%DC 20%Win → 98% · Draw → 95% · Loss → 91%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sat 29 Aug · Away7:30 PM EDTAtlanta6%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 30%Draw 26%CLT 44%95% → 94% – 99%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTHouston99%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 45%Draw 26%HOU 29%95% → 93% – 98%Playoffs Wed 9 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTMontreal8%PlayoffsMatch resultMTL 31%Draw 26%CLT 43%95% → 92% – 98%Playoffs

Full schedule14 to play

Saturday · Home7:30 PM EDTDC27%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 57%Draw 23%DC 20%95% → 91% – 98%Playoffs Sat 29 Aug · Away7:30 PM EDTAtlanta6%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 30%Draw 26%CLT 44%95% → 94% – 99%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTHouston99%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 45%Draw 26%HOU 29%95% → 93% – 98%Playoffs Wed 9 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTMontreal8%PlayoffsMatch resultMTL 31%Draw 26%CLT 43%95% → 92% – 98%Playoffs Sat 12 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTCincinnati99%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 50%Draw 25%CLT 25%95% → 95% – 99%Playoffs Sat 19 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTDC27%PlayoffsMatch resultDC 33%Draw 27%CLT 40%95% → 94% – 99%Playoffs Sat 26 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 45%Draw 26%CHI 29%95% → 93% – 99%Playoffs Sat 10 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTDallas93%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 45%Draw 26%DAL 29%95% → 93% – 99%Playoffs Wed 14 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTColumbus26%PlayoffsMatch resultCLB 38%Draw 27%CLT 35%95% → 93% – 99%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Away2:30 PM EDTPhiladelphia36%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 41%Draw 27%CLT 32%95% → 92% – 99%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Away10:30 PM EDTPortland49%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 39%Draw 27%CLT 34%95% → 92% – 98%Playoffs Wed 28 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTMontreal8%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 59%Draw 22%MTL 19%95% → 91% – 98%Playoffs Sat 31 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTOrlando60%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 49%Draw 25%ORL 26%95% → 92% – 99%Playoffs Sat 7 Nov · Away4:00 PM ESTMiami>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 57%Draw 23%CLT 20%95% → 96% – 98%Playoffs

History

Final · Away19 AugToronto3Charlotte±0395% → 95%Playoffs Final · Home15 AugColumbus1Charlotte±0388% → 88%Playoffs Final · Away1 AugChicago2Charlotte▲ +1193% → 94%Playoffs

All results20 played

Final · Away19 AugToronto3Charlotte±0395% → 95%Playoffs Final · Home15 AugColumbus1Charlotte±0388% → 88%Playoffs Final · Away1 AugChicago2Charlotte▲ +1193% → 94%Playoffs Final · Away25 JulNY Red Bulls0Charlotte▲ +7290% → 97%Playoffs Final · Home22 JulAtlanta2Charlotte▼ -3293% → 90%Playoffs Final · Home23 MayNew England0Charlotte1 Final · Home16 MayToronto1Charlotte3 Final · Home13 MayNY City1Charlotte0 Final · Home9 MayCincinnati2Charlotte2 Final · Away2 MayNew England1Charlotte0 Final · Away25 AprNashville4Charlotte2 Final · Away22 AprOrlando4Charlotte1 Final · Away18 AprNY City1Charlotte2 Final · Home11 AprNashville2Charlotte1 Final · Home4 AprPhiladelphia1Charlotte2 Final · Home21 MarNY Red Bulls1Charlotte6 Final · Home14 MarMiami0Charlotte0 Final · Home7 MarAustin1Charlotte3 Final · Away28 FebLA Galaxy3Charlotte0 Final · Away21 FebSt. Louis1Charlotte1

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home29%

Charlotte 51+ points

Round One

3CharlotteHome6New England

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 2 Miami v 7 NY City · 4 Chicago v 5 Cincinnati

87% of this route
- above CincinnatiCincinnati 1+ point back (91%)
13% of this route
- below CincinnatiCincinnati under 62 points (90%)
- above New EnglandNew England 1+ point back (97%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 5,059. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	75
2	Miami	71
3	Charlotte	55
4	Chicago	52
5	Cincinnati	50
6	New England	49
7	NY City	43
8	NY Red Bulls	43
9	Orlando	42
-	Atlanta	41
-	Columbus	41

Reach Round One directly, on the road54%

Charlotte 45+ points

Round One

2NashvilleHome7Charlotte

Alongside it: 1 Miami v Wild Card winner · 3 New England v 6 DC · 4 Chicago v 5 Cincinnati

80% of this route
- below CincinnatiCincinnati under 61 points (93%)
20% of this route
- above CincinnatiCincinnati under 52 points (94%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 8,693. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Miami	69
2	Nashville	65
3	New England	62
4	Chicago	56
5	Cincinnati	55
6	DC	54
7	Charlotte	49
8	NY Red Bulls	49
9	Toronto	46
-	Philadelphia	40
-	NY City	39

Host the Wild Card game8%

Charlotte 42+ points

Wild Card

8CharlotteHome9NY Red Bulls

74% of this route
- below NY CityNY City under 55 points (93%)
26% of this route
- above NY CityNY City 1+ point back (94%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,149. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	71
2	Miami	70
3	Chicago	55
4	New England	50
5	NY City	49
6	Cincinnati	48
7	Orlando	46
8	Charlotte	45
9	NY Red Bulls	41
-	Philadelphia	40
-	DC	40

Play the Wild Card game away5%

Charlotte 41+ points

Wild Card

8ChicagoHome9Charlotte

62% of this route
- below OrlandoOrlando under 53 points (93%)
38% of this route
- above OrlandoOrlando out of the postseason (>99%) · Orlando 1+ point back (94%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 571. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Miami	71
2	Nashville	69
3	Philadelphia	54
4	Cincinnati	50
5	New England	49
6	Orlando	47
7	NY City	47
8	Chicago	45
9	Charlotte	43
-	DC	42
-	Montreal	41

Miss the postseason5%

Charlotte under 44 points

76% of this route
- below NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls under 50 points (90%)
24% of this route
- above NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls 1+ point back (>99%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 694. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Miami	72
2	Nashville	69
3	Chicago	59
4	Cincinnati	55
5	NY City	46
6	Orlando	44
7	NY Red Bulls	44
8	New England	43
9	Columbus	42
-	DC	41
-	Charlotte	40