Magic Number.
MLS · 2026
8th by playoff odds30 clubs

Charlotte

5th · 12-7-8 · 43 pts
Playoffs>99%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
4

Win the next 4 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Could clinch a playoff place as soon as Sat 17 Oct.

Next upSaturday · Home7:30 PM EDTCharlotte>99%PlayoffsDallas>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 44%Draw 26%DAL 30%Win → >99% · Draw → >99% · Loss → >99%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Home26 SepChicago1Charlotte±00>99% → >99%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup4%

5th in the table · 8th by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish
1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 5th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Home7:30 PM EDTCharlotte>99%PlayoffsDallas>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 44%Draw 26%DAL 30%Win → >99% · Draw → >99% · Loss → >99%Playoffs

Upcoming

Wednesday · Away7:30 PM EDTColumbus11%PlayoffsMatch resultCLB 35%Draw 27%CLT 38%>99% → >99% – 100%PlayoffsSat 17 Oct · Away2:30 PM EDTPhiladelphia99%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 46%Draw 26%CLT 28%>99% → >99% – 100%PlayoffsSat 24 Oct · Away10:30 PM EDTPortland24%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 34%Draw 27%CLT 39%>99% → >99% – 100%Playoffs
Full schedule7 to play
Saturday · Home7:30 PM EDTDallas>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 44%Draw 26%DAL 30%>99% → 100% – 100%PlayoffsWednesday · Away7:30 PM EDTColumbus11%PlayoffsMatch resultCLB 35%Draw 27%CLT 38%>99% → >99% – 100%PlayoffsSat 17 Oct · Away2:30 PM EDTPhiladelphia99%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 46%Draw 26%CLT 28%>99% → >99% – 100%PlayoffsSat 24 Oct · Away10:30 PM EDTPortland24%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 34%Draw 27%CLT 39%>99% → >99% – 100%PlayoffsWed 28 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTMontreal<1%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 65%Draw 20%MTL 15%>99% → >99% – 100%PlayoffsSat 31 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTOrlando77%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 50%Draw 25%ORL 25%>99% → 100% – 100%PlayoffsSat 7 Nov · Away4:00 PM ESTMiami>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 50%Draw 25%CLT 25%>99% → 100% – 100%Playoffs

History

Final · Home26 SepChicago1Charlotte±00>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away19 SepDC1Charlotte±02>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away12 SepCincinnati3Charlotte±03>99% → >99%Playoffs
All results27 played
Final · Home26 SepChicago1Charlotte±00>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away19 SepDC1Charlotte±02>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away12 SepCincinnati3Charlotte±03>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away9 SepMontreal1Charlotte▲ +1299% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home5 SepHouston0Charlotte▼ -10>99% → 99%PlayoffsFinal · Away29 AugAtlanta0Charlotte▲ +2298% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home22 AugDC1Charlotte▲ +3395% → 98%PlayoffsFinal · Away19 AugToronto3Charlotte±0395% → 95%PlayoffsFinal · Home15 AugColumbus1Charlotte±0388% → 88%PlayoffsFinal · Away1 AugChicago2Charlotte▲ +1193% → 94%PlayoffsFinal · Away25 JulNY Red Bulls0Charlotte▲ +7290% → 97%PlayoffsFinal · Home22 JulAtlanta2Charlotte▼ -3293% → 90%PlayoffsFinal · Home23 MayNew England0Charlotte1Final · Home16 MayToronto1Charlotte3Final · Home13 MayNY City1Charlotte0Final · Home9 MayCincinnati2Charlotte2Final · Away2 MayNew England1Charlotte0Final · Away25 AprNashville4Charlotte2Final · Away22 AprOrlando4Charlotte1Final · Away18 AprNY City1Charlotte2Final · Home11 AprNashville2Charlotte1Final · Home4 AprPhiladelphia1Charlotte2Final · Home21 MarNY Red Bulls1Charlotte6Final · Home14 MarMiami0Charlotte0Final · Home7 MarAustin1Charlotte3Final · Away28 FebLA Galaxy3Charlotte0Final · Away21 FebSt. Louis1Charlotte1

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-02-232026-10-07

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home45%

Charlotte 53+ points

Round One
4CharlotteHome5New England

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 2 Miami v 7 NY Red Bulls · 3 Chicago v 6 Philadelphia

  1. 36% of this route

  2. 33% of this route

  3. 32% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,214. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Nashville74
2Miami62
3Chicago59
4Charlotte55
5New England52
6Philadelphia47
7NY Red Bulls47
8Cincinnati46
9Orlando43
-NY City42
-DC39
Reach Round One directly, on the road54%

Charlotte 48+ points

Round One
4New EnglandHome5Charlotte

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 2 Chicago v 7 Philadelphia · 3 Miami v 6 Orlando

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 10,792. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Nashville71
2Chicago57
3Miami57
4New England56
5Charlotte51
6Orlando50
7Philadelphia45
8Toronto44
9Cincinnati43
-NY Red Bulls41
-NY City39
Host the Wild Card game1%
Play the Wild Card game away<1%

A possible long-shot route: 37 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Charlotte 44+ points

Miss the postseason<1%

A possible long-shot route: 7 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Charlotte under 47 points