Magic Number - Toronto FC 2026

Playoffs14%

Elimination number

The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.

13

Lose the next 13 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSaturday · Away7:30 PM EDTToronto14%PlayoffsMiami>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 69%Draw 18%TOR 13%Win → 23% · Draw → 16% · Loss → 14%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Home19 AugCharlotte3Toronto▲ +2312% → 14%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%

Supporters' Shield<1%

MLS Cup<1%

11th in the table · 25th by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 14th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Away7:30 PM EDTToronto14%PlayoffsMiami>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 69%Draw 18%TOR 13%Win → 23% · Draw → 16% · Loss → 14%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sat 29 Aug · Home7:30 PM EDTNY City82%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 36%Draw 27%NYC 37%14% → 9% – 20%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 33%Draw 27%CHI 40%14% → 9% – 19%Playoffs Wed 9 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTNashville>99%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 26%Draw 25%NSH 49%14% → 11% – 22%Playoffs

Full schedule14 to play

History

Final · Home19 AugCharlotte3Toronto▲ +2312% → 14%Playoffs Final · Home15 AugNew England1Toronto±026% → 6%Playoffs Final · Away31 JulNY City1Toronto±016% → 6%Playoffs

All results20 played

Final · Home19 AugCharlotte3Toronto▲ +2312% → 14%Playoffs Final · Home15 AugNew England1Toronto±026% → 6%Playoffs Final · Away31 JulNY City1Toronto±016% → 6%Playoffs Final · Away25 JulDC2Toronto▼ -3116% → 13%Playoffs Final · Away22 JulNew England0Toronto▲ +1015% → 16%Playoffs Final · Away16 JulMontreal0Toronto0 Final · Away23 MayChicago2Toronto1 Final · Away16 MayCharlotte3Toronto1 Final · Home9 MayMiami4Toronto2 Final · Home2 MaySan Jose1Toronto1 Final · Home25 AprAtlanta2Toronto1 Final · Home22 AprPhiladelphia3Toronto3 Final · Home18 AprAustin3Toronto3 Final · Home11 AprCincinnati1Toronto1 Final · Home4 AprColorado2Toronto3 Final · Home21 MarColumbus1Toronto2 Final · Home14 MarNY Red Bulls1Toronto1 Final · Away8 MarCincinnati0Toronto1 Final · Away28 FebVancouver3Toronto0 Final · Away21 FebDallas3Toronto2

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home<1%

A possible long-shot route: 15 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Toronto 49+ points

Reach Round One directly, on the road3%

Toronto 44+ points

Round One

2MiamiHome7Toronto

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 3 Cincinnati v 6 Charlotte · 4 Chicago v 5 New England

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 619. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	74
2	Miami	64
3	Cincinnati	61
4	Chicago	56
5	New England	55
6	Charlotte	49
7	Toronto	46
8	NY City	42
9	Columbus	41
-	Orlando	40
-	NY Red Bulls	40

Host the Wild Card game4%

Toronto 42+ points

Wild Card

8TorontoHome9Orlando

66% of this route
- above NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls out of the postseason (>99%) · NY Red Bulls 2+ points back (96%)
34% of this route
- below NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls under 50 points (91%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 542. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	74
2	Miami	63
3	Cincinnati	55
4	Charlotte	53
5	Chicago	52
6	NY City	48
7	New England	48
8	Toronto	44
9	Orlando	43
-	Philadelphia	39
-	NY Red Bulls	37

Play the Wild Card game away6%

Toronto 40+ points

Wild Card

8OrlandoHome9Toronto

65% of this route
- above DCDC out of the postseason (>99%) · DC 1+ point back (94%)
- above PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia out of the postseason (>99%) · Philadelphia 1+ point back (>99%)
19% of this route
- above DCDC out of the postseason (>99%) · DC 1+ point back (96%)
- below PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia under 50 points (91%)
15% of this route
- below DCDC under 50 points (92%)
- above PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia out of the postseason (92%) · Philadelphia 1+ point back (92%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 832. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Miami	73
2	Nashville	64
3	New England	55
4	Cincinnati	54
5	Charlotte	51
6	Chicago	49
7	NY City	48
8	Orlando	43
9	Toronto	42
-	NY Red Bulls	41
-	Philadelphia	37
-	DC	37

Miss the postseason86%

64% of this route
- Toronto under 39 points
- below PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia under 48 points (93%)
- below DCDC under 47 points (92%)
20% of this route
- Toronto under 43 points
- above PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia 1+ point back (>99%)
16% of this route
- Toronto under 42 points
- below PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia under 48 points (91%)
- above DCDC 1+ point back (>99%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 11,042. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	75
2	Miami	69
3	Cincinnati	57
4	Chicago	55
5	Charlotte	53
6	New England	51
7	NY City	49
8	Orlando	42
9	Philadelphia	41
-	DC	41
-	NY Red Bulls	38
-	Toronto	34