Magic Number - Orlando City SC 2026

Playoffs77%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

6

Win the next 6 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Could clinch a playoff place as soon as Sat 24 Oct.

Next upSaturday · Home7:30 PM EDTOrlando77%PlayoffsColumbus11%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 50%Draw 25%CLB 25%Win → 88% · Draw → 77% · Loss → 66%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Away26 SepPhiladelphia4Orlando▼ -4281% → 77%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

ConferenceOut

Supporters' ShieldOut

MLS Cup1%

7th in the table · 15th by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 8th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Home7:30 PM EDTOrlando77%PlayoffsColumbus11%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 50%Draw 25%CLB 25%Win → 88% · Draw → 77% · Loss → 66%Playoffs

Upcoming

Wednesday · Away7:30 PM EDTToronto11%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 37%Draw 27%ORL 36%77% → 66% – 91%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTDC14%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 55%Draw 24%DC 21%77% → 60% – 87%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTNY City55%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 47%Draw 26%NYC 27%77% → 61% – 90%Playoffs

Full schedule7 to play

Saturday · Home7:30 PM EDTColumbus11%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 50%Draw 25%CLB 25%77% → 66% – 88%Playoffs Wednesday · Away7:30 PM EDTToronto11%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 37%Draw 27%ORL 36%77% → 66% – 91%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTDC14%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 55%Draw 24%DC 21%77% → 60% – 87%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTNY City55%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 47%Draw 26%NYC 27%77% → 61% – 90%Playoffs Wed 28 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 50%Draw 25%ORL 25%77% → 69% – 91%Playoffs Sat 31 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTCharlotte>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 50%Draw 25%ORL 25%77% → 68% – 90%Playoffs Sat 7 Nov · Home4:00 PM ESTNew England>99%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 46%Draw 26%NE 28%77% → 61% – 87%Playoffs

History

Final · Away26 SepPhiladelphia4Orlando▼ -4281% → 77%Playoffs Final · Away19 SepNew England4Orlando▼ -8289% → 81%Playoffs Final · Home12 SepToronto0Orlando±0382% → 82%Playoffs

All results27 played

Final · Away26 SepPhiladelphia4Orlando▼ -4281% → 77%Playoffs Final · Away19 SepNew England4Orlando▼ -8289% → 81%Playoffs Final · Home12 SepToronto0Orlando±0382% → 82%Playoffs Final · Away9 SepAtlanta2Orlando▲ +9372% → 81%Playoffs Final · Home5 SepSan Diego0Orlando▲ +12160% → 72%Playoffs Final · Away29 AugMinnesota3Orlando▲ +3357% → 60%Playoffs Final · Home22 AugSalt Lake1Orlando▼ -2260% → 58%Playoffs Final · Home19 AugChicago2Orlando±0160% → 60%Playoffs Final · Home15 AugCincinnati1Orlando±0155% → 55%Playoffs Final · Away1 AugNY Red Bulls3Orlando±0269% → 69%Playoffs Final · Home25 JulNashville0Orlando▲ +25133% → 58%Playoffs Final · Away22 JulSan Jose0Orlando▼ -4437% → 33%Playoffs Final · Away23 MayCincinnati6Orlando2 Final · Home16 MayAtlanta1Orlando1 Final · Home13 MayPhiladelphia3Orlando4 Final · Away9 MayMontreal2Orlando0 Final · Away2 MayMiami3Orlando4 Final · Away25 AprDC3Orlando2 Final · Home22 AprCharlotte1Orlando4 Final · Home18 AprHouston1Orlando0 Final · Away12 AprColumbus1Orlando1 Final · Away4 AprLAFC6Orlando0 Final · Away21 MarNashville5Orlando0 Final · Home14 MarMontreal1Orlando2 Final · Away7 MarNY City5Orlando0 Final · Home1 MarMiami4Orlando2 Final · Home21 FebNY Red Bulls2Orlando1

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home1%

A possible long-shot route: 144 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Orlando 51+ points

Reach Round One directly, on the road35%

Orlando 44+ points

Round One

2New EnglandHome7Orlando

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 3 Chicago v 6 Philadelphia · 4 Miami v 5 Charlotte

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 7,076. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	68
2	New England	58
3	Chicago	57
4	Miami	56
5	Charlotte	55
6	Philadelphia	52
7	Orlando	47
8	NY Red Bulls	44
9	Cincinnati	44
-	Columbus	43
-	NY City	42

Host the Wild Card game24%

Orlando 42+ points

Wild Card

8OrlandoHome9Toronto

70% of this route
- above NY CityNY City under 45 points (93%)
- above NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls 1+ point back (92%)
16% of this route
- below NY CityNY City under 50 points (91%)
- above NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls under 45 points (93%)
14% of this route
- above NY CityNY City under 45 points (94%)
- below NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls under 50 points (93%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,388. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	72
2	New England	62
3	Chicago	55
4	Charlotte	53
5	Miami	53
6	Philadelphia	48
7	Cincinnati	47
8	Orlando	45
9	Toronto	44
-	NY Red Bulls	41
-	NY City	41

Play the Wild Card game away17%

Orlando 41+ points

Wild Card

8NY Red BullsHome9Orlando

44% of this route
- below CincinnatiCincinnati under 52 points (92%)
- above NY CityNY City out of the postseason (>99%) · NY City under 44 points (94%)
41% of this route
- below CincinnatiCincinnati under 52 points (92%)
- below NY CityNY City under 50 points (94%)
15% of this route
- above CincinnatiCincinnati out of the postseason (>99%) · Cincinnati under 44 points (95%)
- below NY CityNY City under 49 points (90%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,460. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	74
2	Chicago	57
3	New England	56
4	Charlotte	55
5	Miami	53
6	Philadelphia	51
7	Cincinnati	47
8	NY Red Bulls	44
9	Orlando	43
-	NY City	40
-	DC	39

Miss the postseason23%

Orlando under 44 points

83% of this route
- below NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls under 48 points (92%)
17% of this route
- above NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls 1+ point back (>99%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,864. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	73
2	Chicago	61
3	Miami	60
4	New England	57
5	Philadelphia	48
6	Charlotte	47
7	NY Red Bulls	44
8	NY City	44
9	Cincinnati	41
-	Orlando	40
-	Toronto	39