Magic Number - DC United 2026

Playoffs14%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

8

Win the next 8 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number

The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.

7

Lose the next 7 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Could be eliminated as soon as Sat 24 Oct.

Next upSaturday · Away7:30 PM EDTDC14%PlayoffsMiami>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 65%Draw 20%DC 15%Win → 29% · Draw → 11% · Loss → 7%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Away26 SepVancouver3DC±0312% → 12%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

ConferenceOut

Supporters' ShieldOut

MLS Cup<1%

11th in the table · 24th by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 12th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Away7:30 PM EDTDC14%PlayoffsMiami>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 65%Draw 20%DC 15%Win → 29% · Draw → 11% · Loss → 7%Playoffs

Upcoming

Wednesday · Home7:30 PM EDTNY Red Bulls49%PlayoffsMatch resultDC 41%Draw 27%RBNY 32%14% → 5% – 21%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTOrlando77%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 55%Draw 24%DC 21%14% → 9% – 27%Playoffs Wed 21 Oct · Away7:00 PM EDTCincinnati81%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 59%Draw 22%DC 19%14% → 8% – 26%Playoffs

Full schedule8 to play

History

Final · Away26 SepVancouver3DC±0312% → 12%Playoffs Final · Home19 SepCharlotte2DC▼ -8117% → 9%Playoffs Final · Home12 SepAtlanta0DC±0028% → 28%Playoffs

All results26 played

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at homeNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Reach Round One directly, on the road3%

DC 44+ points

Round One

3New EnglandHome6DC

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 2 Miami v 7 Philadelphia · 4 Chicago v 5 Charlotte

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 516. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	72
2	Miami	62
3	New England	60
4	Chicago	57
5	Charlotte	56
6	DC	46
7	Philadelphia	45
8	Orlando	42
9	Cincinnati	42
-	NY Red Bulls	39
-	NY City	38

Host the Wild Card game5%

DC 42+ points

Wild Card

8DCHome9Toronto

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 909. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	74
2	Chicago	61
3	Miami	56
4	New England	55
5	Charlotte	52
6	Cincinnati	51
7	Philadelphia	50
8	DC	44
9	Toronto	42
-	NY Red Bulls	41
-	NY City	41

Play the Wild Card game away7%

DC 41+ points

Wild Card

8ColumbusHome9DC

45% of this route
- above NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls out of the postseason (>99%) · NY Red Bulls 1+ point back (>99%)
- above NY CityNY City out of the postseason (>99%) · NY City 1+ point back (>99%)
30% of this route
- above NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls out of the postseason (>99%) · NY Red Bulls 1+ point back (>99%)
- below NY CityNY City under 49 points (94%)
25% of this route
- below NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls under 49 points (94%)
- above NY CityNY City under 46 points (92%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 660. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	72
2	Chicago	64
3	Miami	59
4	Charlotte	53
5	Cincinnati	52
6	Philadelphia	47
7	New England	46
8	Columbus	43
9	DC	43
-	Orlando	41
-	Toronto	39
-	NY Red Bulls	39
-	NY City	39

Miss the postseason86%

DC under 43 points

88% of this route
- below NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls under 47 points (90%)
12% of this route
- above NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls 1+ point back (>99%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 15,005. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	73
2	Chicago	61
3	Miami	61
4	Charlotte	59
5	New England	53
6	Philadelphia	44
7	NY Red Bulls	43
8	NY City	43
9	Toronto	43
-	Orlando	42
-	Cincinnati	39
-	DC	37