Magic Number - Inter Miami 2026

Playoffs>99%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

2

Win the next 2 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Could clinch a playoff place as soon as Wednesday.

Next upSaturday · Home7:30 PM EDTMiami>99%PlayoffsDC14%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 65%Draw 20%DC 15%Win → >99% · Draw → >99% · Loss → >99%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Away27 SepColumbus2Miami±01>99% → >99%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%

Supporters' Shield<1%

MLS Cup12%

3rd in the table · 4th by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 2nd. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Home7:30 PM EDTMiami>99%PlayoffsDC14%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 65%Draw 20%DC 15%Win → >99% · Draw → >99% · Loss → >99%Playoffs

Upcoming

Wednesday · Home7:30 PM EDTNY City55%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 57%Draw 23%NYC 20%<1% → 0% – <1%Conference Sat 17 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTAtlanta3%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 25%Draw 25%MIA 50%<1% → <1% – <1%Conference Sat 24 Oct · Away5:30 PM EDTNY Red Bulls49%PlayoffsMatch resultRBNY 29%Draw 26%MIA 45%<1% → <1% – <1%Conference

Full schedule7 to play

Saturday · Home7:30 PM EDTDC14%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 65%Draw 20%DC 15%>99% → 100% – 100%Playoffs Wednesday · Home7:30 PM EDTNY City55%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 57%Draw 23%NYC 20%<1% → 0% – <1%Conference Sat 17 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTAtlanta3%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 25%Draw 25%MIA 50%<1% → <1% – <1%Conference Sat 24 Oct · Away5:30 PM EDTNY Red Bulls49%PlayoffsMatch resultRBNY 29%Draw 26%MIA 45%<1% → <1% – <1%Conference Wed 28 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTCincinnati81%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 53%Draw 24%CIN 23%<1% → <1% – <1%Conference Sun 1 Nov · Away7:00 PM ESTNew England>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 34%Draw 27%MIA 39%<1% → 0% – <1%Conference Sat 7 Nov · Home4:00 PM ESTCharlotte>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 50%Draw 25%CLT 25%>99% → 100% – 100%Playoffs

History

Final · Away27 SepColumbus2Miami±01>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home20 SepSan Diego2Miami±02>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home12 SepNashville2Miami±02>99% → >99%Playoffs

All results27 played

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home90%

Miami 55+ points

Round One

2MiamiHome7Orlando

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 3 Chicago v 6 Charlotte · 4 Philadelphia v 5 New England

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 17,956. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	72
2	Miami	59
3	Chicago	56
4	Philadelphia	55
5	New England	53
6	Charlotte	53
7	Orlando	48
8	NY Red Bulls	44
9	DC	42
-	Cincinnati	41
-	Toronto	40

Reach Round One directly, on the road10%

Miami 51+ points

Round One

4ChicagoHome5Miami

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 2 New England v 7 Orlando · 3 Charlotte v 6 Cincinnati

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,035. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	65
2	New England	57
3	Charlotte	56
4	Chicago	53
5	Miami	53
6	Cincinnati	53
7	Orlando	47
8	Philadelphia	45
9	Columbus	43
-	NY City	43
-	Toronto	39

Host the Wild Card game<1%

A possible long-shot route: 9 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Miami 46+ points

Play the Wild Card game awayNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Miss the postseasonNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.