Magic Number - track record

track record · forecast accountability

forecast accountability rendered 20 Aug 2026

How the model has actually done: the live 2026 record on forecasts it published before kickoff, and its season-outcome calibration on no-lookahead reconstructions. Every metric shows the sample it was measured over.

Live 2026 record

The model scored against forecasts it published before kickoff. Skill is the base-rates RPS minus the model RPS (positive means the model beat knowing only home advantage and the results so far); n rides next to every number because the sample is thin.

mlb 2026 244 live snapshot(s)

0.2458 model RPS n=402

0.2490 base-rates RPS n=402

+0.0032 cumulative skill n=402

Snapshot cutoff	Matches scored	RPS
2026-07-21T01:51:05Z	400	0.2459
2026-07-21T01:52:19Z	400	0.2459
2026-07-21T07:16:57Z	399	0.2459
2026-07-21T16:33:05Z	399	0.2459
2026-07-21T17:57:54Z	399	0.2459
2026-07-21T19:07:09Z	398	0.2461
2026-07-21T20:17:00Z	398	0.2461
2026-07-22T02:24:45Z	384	0.2458
2026-07-22T03:57:10Z	384	0.2458
2026-07-22T18:51:06Z	381	0.2456
2026-07-23T02:42:53Z	369	0.2448
2026-07-24T03:05:44Z	365	0.2448
2026-07-24T23:09:16Z	358	0.2440
2026-07-25T01:48:30Z	351	0.2439
2026-07-25T05:29:20Z	350	0.2441
2026-07-25T19:46:11Z	349	0.2438
2026-07-25T23:04:00Z	342	0.2436
2026-07-26T01:51:41Z	335	0.2442
2026-07-26T18:21:13Z	323	0.2444
2026-07-26T21:49:57Z	321	0.2439
2026-07-27T02:35:09Z	320	0.2439
2026-07-27T21:10:33Z	319	0.2440
2026-07-28T01:02:04Z	311	0.2437
2026-07-28T04:11:56Z	308	0.2436
2026-07-28T20:46:11Z	307	0.2437
2026-07-29T01:08:57Z	298	0.2437
2026-07-29T04:35:47Z	293	0.2443
2026-07-29T18:51:34Z	288	0.2436
2026-07-29T23:24:00Z	284	0.2435
2026-07-30T02:09:38Z	278	0.2437
2026-07-30T04:51:10Z	278	0.2439
2026-07-30T19:10:29Z	274	0.2439
2026-07-31T01:44:04Z	269	0.2440
2026-07-31T05:02:26Z	268	0.2444
2026-07-31T20:52:57Z	267	0.2443
2026-08-01T01:13:23Z	258	0.2442
2026-08-01T04:24:22Z	253	0.2443
2026-08-01T10:14:50Z	253	0.2442
2026-08-01T19:06:22Z	255	0.2442
2026-08-01T20:18:37Z	255	0.2442
2026-08-01T20:45:34Z	255	0.2442
2026-08-01T22:00:26Z	254	0.2444
2026-08-01T22:28:16Z	253	0.2446
2026-08-01T23:11:05Z	253	0.2446
2026-08-01T23:39:15Z	251	0.2450
2026-08-02T00:29:08Z	251	0.2450
2026-08-02T01:00:15Z	251	0.2450
2026-08-02T01:28:46Z	251	0.2450
2026-08-02T01:57:14Z	250	0.2453
2026-08-02T02:25:34Z	247	0.2454
2026-08-02T03:10:49Z	244	0.2449
2026-08-02T03:38:58Z	242	0.2447
2026-08-02T04:23:43Z	241	0.2453
2026-08-02T04:51:50Z	240	0.2454
2026-08-02T17:45:08Z	240	0.2454
2026-08-02T18:11:27Z	240	0.2454
2026-08-02T18:37:48Z	240	0.2454
2026-08-02T19:42:20Z	240	0.2454
2026-08-02T20:08:51Z	239	0.2458
2026-08-02T20:47:33Z	236	0.2454
2026-08-02T21:28:21Z	233	0.2457
2026-08-02T21:57:50Z	229	0.2447
2026-08-02T23:13:59Z	227	0.2452
2026-08-02T23:40:07Z	226	0.2454
2026-08-03T02:45:39Z	225	0.2450
2026-08-03T22:43:39Z	225	0.2450
2026-08-03T23:10:27Z	225	0.2450
2026-08-03T23:53:16Z	225	0.2450
2026-08-04T00:20:38Z	225	0.2450
2026-08-04T00:47:15Z	225	0.2450
2026-08-04T01:29:20Z	224	0.2454
2026-08-04T01:55:28Z	224	0.2454
2026-08-04T02:21:52Z	223	0.2447
2026-08-04T02:48:10Z	220	0.2434
2026-08-04T03:14:01Z	219	0.2431
2026-08-04T03:39:52Z	218	0.2435
2026-08-04T04:20:54Z	217	0.2437
2026-08-04T22:06:19Z	217	0.2437
2026-08-04T22:47:29Z	217	0.2437
2026-08-04T23:13:29Z	217	0.2437
2026-08-04T23:39:25Z	217	0.2437
2026-08-05T00:05:23Z	217	0.2437
2026-08-05T00:31:57Z	217	0.2437
2026-08-05T00:58:35Z	215	0.2447
2026-08-05T01:25:09Z	213	0.2443
2026-08-05T01:51:54Z	210	0.2457
2026-08-05T02:18:35Z	209	0.2462
2026-08-05T02:45:27Z	206	0.2465
2026-08-05T03:11:59Z	205	0.2468
2026-08-05T04:09:54Z	203	0.2470
2026-08-05T04:36:19Z	202	0.2467
2026-08-05T14:20:27Z	202	0.2467
2026-08-05T18:19:14Z	202	0.2467
2026-08-05T18:45:21Z	202	0.2467
2026-08-05T19:12:09Z	202	0.2467
2026-08-05T21:11:11Z	201	0.2462
2026-08-05T21:37:02Z	199	0.2466
2026-08-05T22:02:49Z	198	0.2471
2026-08-05T22:44:01Z	198	0.2471
2026-08-05T23:10:00Z	198	0.2471
2026-08-05T23:36:36Z	198	0.2471
2026-08-06T00:02:58Z	198	0.2471
2026-08-06T00:29:11Z	198	0.2471
2026-08-06T01:15:13Z	196	0.2483
2026-08-06T01:43:36Z	195	0.2488
2026-08-06T02:12:02Z	192	0.2487
2026-08-06T02:39:02Z	191	0.2494
2026-08-06T03:07:11Z	190	0.2487
2026-08-06T03:36:20Z	189	0.2480
2026-08-06T04:19:27Z	188	0.2482
2026-08-06T04:46:36Z	187	0.2485
2026-08-06T16:46:25Z	187	0.2485
2026-08-06T17:13:03Z	187	0.2485
2026-08-06T18:12:01Z	187	0.2485
2026-08-06T18:38:41Z	187	0.2485
2026-08-06T19:38:26Z	185	0.2481
2026-08-06T20:21:47Z	184	0.2475
2026-08-06T20:48:58Z	183	0.2481
2026-08-06T21:47:47Z	182	0.2487
2026-08-06T22:14:40Z	182	0.2487
2026-08-06T22:57:11Z	181	0.2485
2026-08-06T23:23:57Z	181	0.2485
2026-08-06T23:50:46Z	181	0.2485
2026-08-07T01:05:57Z	180	0.2490
2026-08-07T01:49:00Z	180	0.2490
2026-08-07T02:49:03Z	179	0.2489
2026-08-07T03:16:18Z	178	0.2495
2026-08-07T03:43:25Z	177	0.2502
2026-08-07T04:42:42Z	176	0.2499
2026-08-07T22:44:25Z	176	0.2499
2026-08-07T23:11:08Z	176	0.2499
2026-08-07T23:54:36Z	176	0.2499
2026-08-08T00:21:24Z	176	0.2499
2026-08-08T00:48:39Z	176	0.2499
2026-08-08T01:15:29Z	176	0.2499
2026-08-08T01:42:10Z	176	0.2499
2026-08-08T02:09:03Z	175	0.2509
2026-08-08T02:36:16Z	170	0.2485
2026-08-08T03:03:30Z	167	0.2500
2026-08-08T04:18:53Z	164	0.2495
2026-08-08T04:45:50Z	161	0.2494
2026-08-08T19:17:07Z	161	0.2494
2026-08-08T20:31:59Z	161	0.2494
2026-08-08T22:04:42Z	160	0.2495
2026-08-08T22:31:50Z	160	0.2495
2026-08-08T22:59:45Z	159	0.2503
2026-08-08T23:26:42Z	158	0.2486
2026-08-08T23:55:36Z	158	0.2486
2026-08-09T00:24:37Z	158	0.2486
2026-08-09T01:28:22Z	156	0.2490
2026-08-09T01:56:43Z	153	0.2492
2026-08-09T02:25:14Z	149	0.2481
2026-08-09T02:54:01Z	148	0.2480
2026-08-09T03:55:11Z	147	0.2480
2026-08-09T04:56:14Z	146	0.2481
2026-08-09T16:16:45Z	146	0.2481
2026-08-09T17:44:51Z	146	0.2481
2026-08-09T18:10:47Z	146	0.2481
2026-08-09T18:36:44Z	146	0.2481
2026-08-09T19:02:40Z	145	0.2483
2026-08-09T20:15:19Z	144	0.2482
2026-08-09T20:41:14Z	141	0.2469
2026-08-09T21:07:24Z	139	0.2479
2026-08-09T21:34:32Z	137	0.2497
2026-08-09T22:00:25Z	136	0.2492
2026-08-09T22:39:31Z	135	0.2492
2026-08-09T23:05:38Z	133	0.2497
2026-08-09T23:32:46Z	132	0.2497
2026-08-10T00:30:18Z	132	0.2497
2026-08-10T02:55:39Z	131	0.2498
2026-08-10T21:22:26Z	131	0.2498
2026-08-10T23:07:28Z	131	0.2498
2026-08-10T23:22:31Z	131	0.2498
2026-08-10T23:52:32Z	131	0.2498
2026-08-11T01:37:29Z	131	0.2498
2026-08-11T01:52:27Z	131	0.2498
2026-08-11T02:11:06Z	130	0.2494
2026-08-11T02:37:30Z	128	0.2482
2026-08-11T02:52:26Z	127	0.2484
2026-08-11T04:07:29Z	126	0.2480
2026-08-11T04:22:29Z	125	0.2493
2026-08-11T04:37:28Z	123	0.2504
2026-08-11T04:52:26Z	122	0.2515
2026-08-11T05:07:26Z	121	0.2523
2026-08-11T22:44:07Z	121	0.2523
2026-08-11T23:07:27Z	121	0.2523
2026-08-11T23:22:33Z	121	0.2523
2026-08-11T23:57:56Z	121	0.2523
2026-08-12T00:59:32Z	120	0.2529
2026-08-12T01:37:28Z	118	0.2545
2026-08-12T01:52:32Z	116	0.2547
2026-08-12T02:13:09Z	115	0.2557
2026-08-12T02:37:26Z	112	0.2553
2026-08-12T04:01:20Z	111	0.2544
2026-08-12T04:22:31Z	108	0.2532
2026-08-12T04:37:29Z	107	0.2528
2026-08-12T05:07:30Z	106	0.2542
2026-08-12T12:52:28Z	106	0.2542
2026-08-12T17:53:41Z	106	0.2542
2026-08-12T18:22:11Z	106	0.2542
2026-08-12T19:07:29Z	106	0.2542
2026-08-12T19:44:55Z	106	0.2542
2026-08-12T20:07:29Z	106	0.2542
2026-08-12T20:30:31Z	105	0.2543
2026-08-12T20:52:31Z	104	0.2543
2026-08-12T21:52:26Z	103	0.2555
2026-08-12T22:22:30Z	102	0.2560
2026-08-12T22:41:42Z	102	0.2560
2026-08-12T23:07:26Z	101	0.2541
2026-08-12T23:26:35Z	101	0.2541
2026-08-12T23:52:27Z	101	0.2541
2026-08-13T00:10:52Z	100	0.2540
2026-08-13T01:37:32Z	98	0.2563
2026-08-13T02:07:28Z	94	0.2565
2026-08-13T02:37:30Z	93	0.2578
2026-08-13T04:52:26Z	92	0.2595
2026-08-13T05:22:26Z	91	0.2587
2026-08-13T16:40:59Z	91	0.2587
2026-08-13T20:45:09Z	87	0.2570
2026-08-13T23:00:22Z	85	0.2564
2026-08-14T02:45:09Z	84	0.2567
2026-08-14T05:15:38Z	82	0.2558
2026-08-14T20:45:09Z	82	0.2558
2026-08-14T23:41:41Z	81	0.2573
2026-08-15T05:57:53Z	68	0.2535
2026-08-15T18:18:55Z	68	0.2535
2026-08-15T20:45:09Z	67	0.2525
2026-08-16T00:35:06Z	63	0.2521
2026-08-16T02:45:09Z	55	0.2470
2026-08-16T06:55:21Z	53	0.2479
2026-08-16T18:39:34Z	53	0.2479
2026-08-16T19:17:29Z	52	0.2462
2026-08-16T20:45:09Z	47	0.2463
2026-08-17T01:33:18Z	39	0.2391
2026-08-17T02:45:14Z	38	0.2366
2026-08-17T20:09:13Z	38	0.2366
2026-08-17T20:45:09Z	37	0.2357
2026-08-18T02:20:58Z	32	0.2391
2026-08-18T02:45:09Z	30	0.2399
2026-08-18T08:32:43Z	27	0.2438
2026-08-19T02:45:09Z	15	0.2645
2026-08-19T08:45:11Z	12	0.2734
2026-08-19T20:45:09Z	9	0.2763
2026-08-20T02:45:14Z	0	—

mls 2026 35 live snapshot(s)

0.2209 model RPS n=69

0.2162 base-rates RPS n=69

-0.0047 cumulative skill n=69

Snapshot cutoff	Matches scored	RPS
2026-07-18T19:38:27Z	69	0.2209
2026-07-19T20:17:39Z	69	0.2209
2026-07-20T16:50:10Z	69	0.2209
2026-07-20T16:57:31Z	69	0.2209
2026-07-20T17:44:13Z	69	0.2209
2026-07-21T16:48:49Z	69	0.2209
2026-07-21T17:57:54Z	69	0.2209
2026-07-21T19:07:09Z	69	0.2209
2026-07-21T20:17:04Z	69	0.2209
2026-07-22T03:57:10Z	69	0.2209
2026-07-22T18:51:06Z	69	0.2209
2026-07-23T02:42:53Z	54	0.2160
2026-07-26T01:11:29Z	43	0.2174
2026-07-26T03:43:32Z	39	0.2246
2026-07-28T01:02:04Z	39	0.2243
2026-08-01T01:40:41Z	38	0.2246
2026-08-01T19:17:50Z	38	0.2246
2026-08-01T23:39:15Z	38	0.2246
2026-08-02T00:29:08Z	38	0.2246
2026-08-02T01:00:15Z	38	0.2246
2026-08-02T01:28:46Z	35	0.2297
2026-08-02T01:57:14Z	33	0.2363
2026-08-02T02:25:34Z	30	0.2405
2026-08-02T02:53:36Z	28	0.2446
2026-08-02T03:10:49Z	28	0.2446
2026-08-02T03:38:58Z	26	0.2485
2026-08-02T04:23:43Z	25	0.2530
2026-08-02T04:51:50Z	24	0.2533
2026-08-08T20:31:59Z	24	0.2533
2026-08-08T22:31:50Z	23	0.2503
2026-08-16T00:35:06Z	23	0.2503
2026-08-16T02:45:09Z	16	0.2701
2026-08-17T01:33:18Z	10	0.2643
2026-08-17T02:45:14Z	9	0.2650
2026-08-20T02:45:14Z	0	—

uslc 2026 57 live snapshot(s)

0.2106 model RPS n=62

0.2308 base-rates RPS n=62

+0.0202 cumulative skill n=62

Snapshot cutoff	Matches scored	RPS
2026-07-18T03:18:47Z	61	0.2111
2026-07-18T08:58:49Z	61	0.2111
2026-07-19T18:22:03Z	52	0.2133
2026-07-19T20:16:53Z	52	0.2133
2026-07-20T17:33:42Z	52	0.2133
2026-07-20T17:47:58Z	52	0.2133
2026-07-21T16:49:57Z	53	0.2127
2026-07-21T17:57:54Z	53	0.2127
2026-07-21T19:07:09Z	53	0.2127
2026-07-21T20:17:04Z	53	0.2127
2026-07-22T03:57:10Z	53	0.2127
2026-07-22T18:51:06Z	53	0.2127
2026-07-23T02:42:53Z	51	0.2136
2026-07-26T01:11:29Z	43	0.1951
2026-07-26T04:07:43Z	40	0.1935
2026-07-28T01:02:04Z	40	0.1935
2026-07-30T01:08:05Z	38	0.1946
2026-08-01T03:02:38Z	37	0.1962
2026-08-01T19:19:04Z	37	0.1962
2026-08-01T23:11:05Z	37	0.1962
2026-08-01T23:39:15Z	37	0.1962
2026-08-02T00:09:31Z	37	0.1962
2026-08-02T00:29:08Z	37	0.1962
2026-08-02T01:00:15Z	36	0.1948
2026-08-02T01:28:46Z	35	0.1978
2026-08-02T01:57:14Z	35	0.1978
2026-08-02T02:25:34Z	33	0.1976
2026-08-02T02:53:36Z	32	0.2002
2026-08-02T03:10:49Z	32	0.2002
2026-08-02T03:38:58Z	31	0.2013
2026-08-02T04:07:28Z	30	0.2054
2026-08-02T04:23:43Z	28	0.2043
2026-08-02T04:51:50Z	27	0.2086
2026-08-03T01:09:34Z	26	0.2053
2026-08-03T09:16:49Z	26	0.2053
2026-08-06T00:57:47Z	26	0.2053
2026-08-06T01:15:13Z	26	0.2053
2026-08-06T01:43:36Z	26	0.2053
2026-08-06T02:39:02Z	25	0.2072
2026-08-06T03:07:11Z	24	0.2103
2026-08-06T04:46:36Z	23	0.2134
2026-08-08T23:26:42Z	23	0.2134
2026-08-08T23:55:36Z	23	0.2134
2026-08-09T00:24:37Z	23	0.2134
2026-08-09T00:52:43Z	23	0.2134
2026-08-09T01:10:32Z	19	0.2142
2026-08-09T01:28:22Z	18	0.2163
2026-08-09T01:56:43Z	17	0.2192
2026-08-09T02:25:14Z	17	0.2192
2026-08-09T02:54:01Z	15	0.2093
2026-08-09T03:55:11Z	13	0.2012
2026-08-09T21:07:24Z	13	0.2012
2026-08-09T23:05:38Z	12	0.2065
2026-08-16T00:35:06Z	12	0.2065
2026-08-16T02:45:09Z	7	0.2152
2026-08-16T06:55:21Z	0	—
2026-08-20T02:45:14Z	0	—

usl1 2026 45 live snapshot(s)

0.2287 model RPS n=44

0.2243 base-rates RPS n=44

-0.0044 cumulative skill n=44

Snapshot cutoff	Matches scored	RPS
2026-07-18T03:19:53Z	44	0.2287
2026-07-19T18:22:03Z	38	0.2243
2026-07-19T20:16:28Z	38	0.2243
2026-07-20T17:29:25Z	38	0.2243
2026-07-20T17:46:27Z	38	0.2243
2026-07-21T16:49:39Z	38	0.2243
2026-07-21T17:57:54Z	38	0.2243
2026-07-21T19:07:09Z	38	0.2243
2026-07-21T20:17:04Z	38	0.2243
2026-07-22T03:57:10Z	38	0.2243
2026-07-22T18:51:06Z	38	0.2243
2026-07-23T02:42:53Z	35	0.2221
2026-07-26T01:11:29Z	29	0.2337
2026-07-26T05:18:28Z	28	0.2342
2026-07-28T01:02:04Z	28	0.2342
2026-07-30T01:08:05Z	26	0.2331
2026-08-01T10:14:50Z	26	0.2326
2026-08-01T19:20:25Z	26	0.2326
2026-08-01T23:11:05Z	26	0.2326
2026-08-01T23:39:15Z	26	0.2326
2026-08-02T00:09:31Z	26	0.2326
2026-08-02T01:00:15Z	23	0.2288
2026-08-02T01:28:46Z	22	0.2251
2026-08-02T01:57:14Z	21	0.2320
2026-08-02T03:38:58Z	20	0.2365
2026-08-03T09:17:57Z	20	0.2365
2026-08-05T23:10:00Z	20	0.2365
2026-08-05T23:36:36Z	20	0.2365
2026-08-06T01:15:13Z	19	0.2392
2026-08-06T01:43:36Z	18	0.2386
2026-08-08T23:26:42Z	18	0.2386
2026-08-08T23:55:36Z	18	0.2386
2026-08-09T00:52:43Z	18	0.2386
2026-08-09T01:10:32Z	17	0.2357
2026-08-09T01:28:22Z	16	0.2451
2026-08-09T01:56:43Z	14	0.2472
2026-08-09T03:22:21Z	14	0.2472
2026-08-09T03:55:11Z	13	0.2471
2026-08-09T04:56:14Z	12	0.2495
2026-08-13T00:10:52Z	12	0.2495
2026-08-13T02:07:28Z	11	0.2554
2026-08-16T00:35:06Z	11	0.2554
2026-08-16T02:45:09Z	6	0.2851
2026-08-17T01:33:18Z	3	0.3392
2026-08-20T02:45:14Z	0	—

nfl 2026, premier-league 2026 have published forecasts and no played games yet, so there is nothing to score. A record appears here after the first game.

Season calibration

No-lookahead reconstructions of playoff odds across premier-league (premier-league-2011, premier-league-2012, premier-league-2013, premier-league-2014, premier-league-2015, premier-league-2016, premier-league-2017, premier-league-2018, premier-league-2019, premier-league-2020, premier-league-2021, premier-league-2022, premier-league-2023, premier-league-2024, premier-league-2025), scored for the current model against the base-rates-simulated baseline. 12360 team-week observations. These are reconstructions, not a live record.

our model base rates perfect calibration

Reliability by weeks-to-go

Each panel: forecast probability across, observed frequency up. On the diagonal is perfectly calibrated; a point above it was under-confident, below it over-confident. Marker size grows with the team-weeks in the bin.

15+ weeks to go early season · n=7860

10-14 weeks to go 10-14 weeks out · n=1500

5-9 weeks to go 5-9 weeks out · n=1500

1-4 weeks to go final month · n=1200

Accuracy by week

Playoff Brier by weeks-to-go (lower is better). The gap between the lines is the model's edge over the baseline at each point in the season.

Weeks to go	n team-weeks	skill
15+	7860	+0.0000
10-14	1500	+0.0000
5-9	1500	+0.0000
1-4	1200	+0.0000