How the model has actually done: the live 2026 record on forecasts it published before kickoff, and its season-outcome calibration on no-lookahead reconstructions. Every metric shows the sample it was measured over.
The model scored against forecasts it published before kickoff. Skill is the base-rates RPS minus the model RPS (positive means the model beat knowing only home advantage and the results so far); n rides next to every number because the sample is thin.
| Snapshot cutoff | Matches scored | RPS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03T02:07:55Z | 64 | 0.2477 |
| 2026-08-03T10:37:48Z | 64 | 0.2477 |
| 2026-08-03T12:21:45Z | 64 | 0.2477 |
| 2026-08-05T14:31:33Z | 64 | 0.2477 |
| 2026-08-13T16:40:59Z | 64 | 0.2477 |
| 2026-08-21T20:45:08Z | 64 | 0.2477 |
| 2026-08-29T20:45:11Z | 64 | 0.2444 |
| 2026-09-06T20:58:02Z | 64 | 0.2444 |
| 2026-09-10T02:45:12Z | 57 | 0.2495 |
| 2026-09-10T04:02:52Z | 63 | 0.2373 |
| 2026-09-11T04:44:16Z | 62 | 0.2366 |
| 2026-09-14T00:32:39Z | 43 | 0.2363 |
| 2026-09-14T07:00:26Z | 49 | 0.2319 |
| 2026-09-15T08:01:27Z | 48 | 0.2279 |
| 2026-09-18T03:45:50Z | 47 | 0.2298 |
| 2026-09-20T23:40:35Z | 34 | 0.2150 |
| 2026-09-21T05:58:23Z | 33 | 0.2174 |
| 2026-09-22T06:44:38Z | 32 | 0.2208 |
| 2026-09-25T08:51:00Z | 31 | 0.2133 |
| 2026-09-27T22:35:56Z | 22 | 0.2143 |
| 2026-09-28T04:44:07Z | 17 | 0.2251 |
| 2026-09-29T05:10:03Z | 16 | 0.2203 |
| 2026-09-29T23:26:00Z | 16 | 0.2203 |
| 2026-10-03T01:02:54Z | 15 | 0.2186 |
| 2026-10-04T19:44:24Z | 14 | 0.2162 |
| 2026-10-05T01:52:28Z | 2 | 0.2855 |
| 2026-10-05T08:06:16Z | 1 | 0.2879 |
| 2026-10-06T08:27:58Z | 0 | — |
| Snapshot cutoff | Matches scored | RPS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T23:11:08Z | 50 | 0.2067 |
| 2026-08-08T15:43:04Z | 50 | 0.2067 |
| 2026-08-10T23:41:48Z | 50 | 0.2067 |
| 2026-08-11T02:05:47Z | 50 | 0.2067 |
| 2026-08-11T02:08:28Z | 50 | 0.2067 |
| 2026-08-19T02:45:09Z | 50 | 0.2067 |
| 2026-08-21T20:45:08Z | 49 | 0.2105 |
| 2026-08-22T14:45:09Z | 48 | 0.2029 |
| 2026-08-23T14:45:09Z | 44 | 0.1959 |
| 2026-08-24T20:45:11Z | 41 | 0.1973 |
| 2026-08-28T20:45:09Z | 39 | 0.1964 |
| 2026-08-29T14:45:14Z | 38 | 0.1965 |
| 2026-08-29T17:04:52Z | 36 | 0.1927 |
| 2026-08-30T14:45:10Z | 35 | 0.1915 |
| 2026-08-30T17:39:11Z | 31 | 0.1981 |
| 2026-08-31T20:45:14Z | 31 | 0.1981 |
| 2026-09-04T20:18:36Z | 30 | 0.1987 |
| 2026-09-05T14:45:10Z | 28 | 0.2057 |
| 2026-09-06T14:45:09Z | 22 | 0.2166 |
| 2026-09-12T17:37:29Z | 15 | 0.1982 |
| 2026-09-13T18:20:38Z | 11 | 0.2204 |
| 2026-09-18T22:17:23Z | 9 | 0.2198 |
| 2026-09-19T16:46:11Z | 5 | 0.2319 |
| 2026-09-20T17:28:04Z | 0 | — |
| 2026-09-26T12:29:09Z | 0 | — |
| 2026-10-04T13:38:11Z | 0 | — |
| Snapshot cutoff | Matches scored | RPS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18T19:38:27Z | 182 | 0.2288 |
| 2026-07-19T20:17:39Z | 182 | 0.2288 |
| 2026-07-20T16:50:10Z | 182 | 0.2288 |
| 2026-07-20T16:57:31Z | 182 | 0.2288 |
| 2026-07-20T17:44:13Z | 182 | 0.2288 |
| 2026-07-21T16:48:49Z | 182 | 0.2288 |
| 2026-07-21T17:57:54Z | 182 | 0.2288 |
| 2026-07-21T19:07:09Z | 182 | 0.2288 |
| 2026-07-21T20:17:04Z | 182 | 0.2288 |
| 2026-07-22T03:57:10Z | 182 | 0.2288 |
| 2026-07-22T18:51:06Z | 182 | 0.2288 |
| 2026-07-23T02:42:53Z | 167 | 0.2274 |
| 2026-07-26T01:11:29Z | 156 | 0.2274 |
| 2026-07-26T03:43:32Z | 152 | 0.2296 |
| 2026-07-28T01:02:04Z | 152 | 0.2292 |
| 2026-08-01T01:40:41Z | 151 | 0.2292 |
| 2026-08-01T19:17:50Z | 151 | 0.2292 |
| 2026-08-01T23:39:15Z | 151 | 0.2292 |
| 2026-08-02T00:29:08Z | 151 | 0.2292 |
| 2026-08-02T01:00:15Z | 151 | 0.2292 |
| 2026-08-02T01:28:46Z | 148 | 0.2306 |
| 2026-08-02T01:57:14Z | 146 | 0.2319 |
| 2026-08-02T02:25:34Z | 143 | 0.2327 |
| 2026-08-02T02:53:36Z | 141 | 0.2334 |
| 2026-08-02T03:10:49Z | 141 | 0.2334 |
| 2026-08-02T03:38:58Z | 139 | 0.2345 |
| 2026-08-02T04:23:43Z | 138 | 0.2352 |
| 2026-08-02T04:51:50Z | 137 | 0.2353 |
| 2026-08-08T20:31:59Z | 137 | 0.2353 |
| 2026-08-08T22:31:50Z | 136 | 0.2351 |
| 2026-08-16T00:35:06Z | 136 | 0.2351 |
| 2026-08-16T02:45:09Z | 129 | 0.2362 |
| 2026-08-17T01:33:18Z | 123 | 0.2321 |
| 2026-08-17T02:45:14Z | 122 | 0.2319 |
| 2026-08-20T02:45:14Z | 113 | 0.2285 |
| 2026-08-23T02:45:09Z | 98 | 0.2197 |
| 2026-08-23T20:45:09Z | 93 | 0.2238 |
| 2026-08-24T02:45:16Z | 91 | 0.2255 |
| 2026-08-29T20:45:11Z | 91 | 0.2255 |
| 2026-08-29T23:08:21Z | 90 | 0.2265 |
| 2026-08-30T02:45:09Z | 81 | 0.2333 |
| 2026-08-30T05:22:46Z | 78 | 0.2318 |
| 2026-08-30T20:45:09Z | 78 | 0.2318 |
| 2026-08-30T23:52:10Z | 77 | 0.2301 |
| 2026-08-31T02:45:09Z | 76 | 0.2313 |
| 2026-09-05T02:30:45Z | 75 | 0.2326 |
| 2026-09-06T02:45:13Z | 67 | 0.2417 |
| 2026-09-10T02:45:12Z | 52 | 0.2372 |
| 2026-09-12T23:50:56Z | 48 | 0.2410 |
| 2026-09-13T06:04:45Z | 36 | 0.2479 |
| 2026-09-14T00:32:39Z | 34 | 0.2343 |
| 2026-09-20T05:02:48Z | 19 | 0.2343 |
| 2026-09-20T23:40:35Z | 19 | 0.2343 |
| 2026-09-24T01:57:05Z | 18 | 0.2362 |
| 2026-09-26T12:29:09Z | 17 | 0.2414 |
| 2026-09-26T21:44:42Z | 17 | 0.2414 |
| 2026-09-27T03:56:56Z | 7 | 0.2220 |
| 2026-09-27T10:10:53Z | 4 | 0.2398 |
| 2026-09-28T04:44:07Z | 3 | 0.1968 |
| 2026-09-30T23:44:48Z | 3 | 0.1968 |
| 2026-10-01T05:53:18Z | 2 | 0.1601 |
| 2026-10-03T01:02:54Z | 1 | 0.2376 |
| 2026-10-07T02:45:17Z | 0 | — |
| Snapshot cutoff | Matches scored | RPS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18T03:18:47Z | 153 | 0.2173 |
| 2026-07-18T08:58:49Z | 153 | 0.2173 |
| 2026-07-19T18:22:03Z | 144 | 0.2164 |
| 2026-07-19T20:16:53Z | 144 | 0.2164 |
| 2026-07-20T17:33:42Z | 144 | 0.2164 |
| 2026-07-20T17:47:58Z | 144 | 0.2164 |
| 2026-07-21T16:49:57Z | 146 | 0.2158 |
| 2026-07-21T17:57:54Z | 146 | 0.2158 |
| 2026-07-21T19:07:09Z | 146 | 0.2158 |
| 2026-07-21T20:17:04Z | 146 | 0.2158 |
| 2026-07-22T03:57:10Z | 146 | 0.2158 |
| 2026-07-22T18:51:06Z | 146 | 0.2158 |
| 2026-07-23T02:42:53Z | 144 | 0.2162 |
| 2026-07-26T01:11:29Z | 135 | 0.2119 |
| 2026-07-26T04:07:43Z | 132 | 0.2114 |
| 2026-07-28T01:02:04Z | 132 | 0.2113 |
| 2026-07-30T01:08:05Z | 130 | 0.2116 |
| 2026-08-01T03:02:38Z | 129 | 0.2123 |
| 2026-08-01T19:19:04Z | 130 | 0.2117 |
| 2026-08-01T23:11:05Z | 130 | 0.2117 |
| 2026-08-01T23:39:15Z | 130 | 0.2117 |
| 2026-08-02T00:09:31Z | 130 | 0.2117 |
| 2026-08-02T00:29:08Z | 130 | 0.2117 |
| 2026-08-02T01:00:15Z | 129 | 0.2121 |
| 2026-08-02T01:28:46Z | 128 | 0.2128 |
| 2026-08-02T01:57:14Z | 128 | 0.2128 |
| 2026-08-02T02:25:34Z | 126 | 0.2129 |
| 2026-08-02T02:53:36Z | 125 | 0.2135 |
| 2026-08-02T03:10:49Z | 125 | 0.2135 |
| 2026-08-02T03:38:58Z | 124 | 0.2141 |
| 2026-08-02T04:07:28Z | 123 | 0.2158 |
| 2026-08-02T04:23:43Z | 121 | 0.2161 |
| 2026-08-02T04:51:50Z | 120 | 0.2170 |
| 2026-08-03T01:09:34Z | 119 | 0.2165 |
| 2026-08-03T09:16:49Z | 119 | 0.2165 |
| 2026-08-06T00:57:47Z | 119 | 0.2165 |
| 2026-08-06T01:15:13Z | 119 | 0.2165 |
| 2026-08-06T01:43:36Z | 119 | 0.2165 |
| 2026-08-06T02:39:02Z | 118 | 0.2171 |
| 2026-08-06T03:07:11Z | 117 | 0.2175 |
| 2026-08-06T04:46:36Z | 116 | 0.2181 |
| 2026-08-08T23:26:42Z | 116 | 0.2181 |
| 2026-08-08T23:55:36Z | 116 | 0.2181 |
| 2026-08-09T00:24:37Z | 116 | 0.2181 |
| 2026-08-09T00:52:43Z | 116 | 0.2181 |
| 2026-08-09T01:10:32Z | 112 | 0.2186 |
| 2026-08-09T01:28:22Z | 111 | 0.2190 |
| 2026-08-09T01:56:43Z | 110 | 0.2195 |
| 2026-08-09T02:25:14Z | 110 | 0.2195 |
| 2026-08-09T02:54:01Z | 108 | 0.2178 |
| 2026-08-09T03:55:11Z | 106 | 0.2169 |
| 2026-08-09T21:07:24Z | 106 | 0.2169 |
| 2026-08-09T23:05:38Z | 105 | 0.2176 |
| 2026-08-16T00:35:06Z | 105 | 0.2176 |
| 2026-08-16T02:45:09Z | 100 | 0.2194 |
| 2026-08-16T06:55:21Z | 93 | 0.2184 |
| 2026-08-20T02:45:14Z | 93 | 0.2184 |
| 2026-08-23T02:45:09Z | 85 | 0.2178 |
| 2026-08-27T02:45:12Z | 80 | 0.2135 |
| 2026-08-29T23:08:21Z | 77 | 0.2155 |
| 2026-08-30T02:45:09Z | 71 | 0.2180 |
| 2026-08-30T05:22:46Z | 66 | 0.2170 |
| 2026-09-03T01:16:58Z | 65 | 0.2127 |
| 2026-09-05T02:30:45Z | 64 | 0.2112 |
| 2026-09-06T02:45:13Z | 58 | 0.2175 |
| 2026-09-12T05:19:35Z | 52 | 0.2231 |
| 2026-09-12T23:50:56Z | 52 | 0.2231 |
| 2026-09-16T02:23:56Z | 41 | 0.2162 |
| 2026-09-17T03:04:50Z | 39 | 0.2209 |
| 2026-09-20T05:02:48Z | 29 | 0.2310 |
| 2026-09-20T23:40:35Z | 28 | 0.2219 |
| 2026-09-23T19:42:43Z | 26 | 0.2250 |
| 2026-09-26T03:28:29Z | 23 | 0.2282 |
| 2026-09-27T03:56:56Z | 16 | 0.2163 |
| 2026-09-27T10:10:53Z | 15 | 0.2217 |
| 2026-09-30T23:44:48Z | 15 | 0.2217 |
| 2026-10-01T05:53:18Z | 10 | 0.2504 |
| 2026-10-04T01:27:27Z | 6 | 0.3009 |
| 2026-10-04T07:33:04Z | 1 | 0.1384 |
| 2026-10-05T01:52:28Z | 0 | — |
| Snapshot cutoff | Matches scored | RPS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18T03:19:53Z | 115 | 0.2203 |
| 2026-07-19T18:22:03Z | 109 | 0.2190 |
| 2026-07-19T20:16:28Z | 109 | 0.2190 |
| 2026-07-20T17:29:25Z | 109 | 0.2190 |
| 2026-07-20T17:46:27Z | 109 | 0.2190 |
| 2026-07-21T16:49:39Z | 109 | 0.2190 |
| 2026-07-21T17:57:54Z | 109 | 0.2190 |
| 2026-07-21T19:07:09Z | 109 | 0.2190 |
| 2026-07-21T20:17:04Z | 109 | 0.2190 |
| 2026-07-22T03:57:10Z | 109 | 0.2190 |
| 2026-07-22T18:51:06Z | 109 | 0.2190 |
| 2026-07-23T02:42:53Z | 106 | 0.2176 |
| 2026-07-26T01:11:29Z | 100 | 0.2205 |
| 2026-07-26T05:18:28Z | 99 | 0.2198 |
| 2026-07-28T01:02:04Z | 99 | 0.2198 |
| 2026-07-30T01:08:05Z | 97 | 0.2203 |
| 2026-08-01T10:14:50Z | 97 | 0.2198 |
| 2026-08-01T19:20:25Z | 97 | 0.2198 |
| 2026-08-01T23:11:05Z | 97 | 0.2198 |
| 2026-08-01T23:39:15Z | 97 | 0.2198 |
| 2026-08-02T00:09:31Z | 97 | 0.2198 |
| 2026-08-02T01:00:15Z | 94 | 0.2175 |
| 2026-08-02T01:28:46Z | 93 | 0.2164 |
| 2026-08-02T01:57:14Z | 92 | 0.2180 |
| 2026-08-02T03:38:58Z | 90 | 0.2174 |
| 2026-08-03T09:17:57Z | 90 | 0.2174 |
| 2026-08-05T23:10:00Z | 90 | 0.2174 |
| 2026-08-05T23:36:36Z | 90 | 0.2174 |
| 2026-08-06T01:15:13Z | 89 | 0.2181 |
| 2026-08-06T01:43:36Z | 88 | 0.2164 |
| 2026-08-08T23:26:42Z | 88 | 0.2164 |
| 2026-08-08T23:55:36Z | 88 | 0.2164 |
| 2026-08-09T00:52:43Z | 88 | 0.2164 |
| 2026-08-09T01:10:32Z | 87 | 0.2152 |
| 2026-08-09T01:28:22Z | 86 | 0.2170 |
| 2026-08-09T01:56:43Z | 84 | 0.2163 |
| 2026-08-09T03:22:21Z | 84 | 0.2163 |
| 2026-08-09T03:55:11Z | 83 | 0.2154 |
| 2026-08-09T04:56:14Z | 82 | 0.2164 |
| 2026-08-13T00:10:52Z | 82 | 0.2164 |
| 2026-08-13T02:07:28Z | 81 | 0.2171 |
| 2026-08-16T00:35:06Z | 82 | 0.2187 |
| 2026-08-16T02:45:09Z | 77 | 0.2190 |
| 2026-08-17T01:33:18Z | 74 | 0.2193 |
| 2026-08-20T02:45:14Z | 71 | 0.2125 |
| 2026-08-23T02:45:09Z | 65 | 0.2161 |
| 2026-08-26T23:33:22Z | 63 | 0.2119 |
| 2026-08-27T02:45:12Z | 62 | 0.2096 |
| 2026-08-29T02:45:09Z | 61 | 0.2104 |
| 2026-08-29T23:08:21Z | 61 | 0.2104 |
| 2026-08-30T02:45:09Z | 55 | 0.2068 |
| 2026-09-03T01:16:58Z | 54 | 0.2070 |
| 2026-09-03T02:45:13Z | 50 | 0.2095 |
| 2026-09-06T02:45:13Z | 44 | 0.2069 |
| 2026-09-11T23:06:58Z | 42 | 0.2080 |
| 2026-09-12T23:50:56Z | 39 | 0.2102 |
| 2026-09-14T00:32:39Z | 34 | 0.2123 |
| 2026-09-16T20:52:55Z | 32 | 0.2120 |
| 2026-09-17T03:04:50Z | 28 | 0.2142 |
| 2026-09-19T22:50:51Z | 28 | 0.2142 |
| 2026-09-20T23:40:35Z | 21 | 0.2222 |
| 2026-09-26T11:37:44Z | 20 | 0.2267 |
| 2026-09-26T21:44:42Z | 19 | 0.2294 |
| 2026-09-27T03:56:56Z | 15 | 0.2128 |
| 2026-09-27T10:10:53Z | 14 | 0.2118 |
| 2026-09-27T22:35:56Z | 13 | 0.2176 |
| 2026-09-28T04:44:07Z | 12 | 0.2165 |
| 2026-09-30T05:33:48Z | 12 | 0.2165 |
| 2026-09-30T23:44:48Z | 12 | 0.2165 |
| 2026-10-01T05:53:18Z | 11 | 0.2072 |
| 2026-10-03T19:23:42Z | 11 | 0.2072 |
| 2026-10-04T01:27:27Z | 6 | 0.1977 |
| 2026-10-04T07:33:04Z | 3 | 0.2072 |
| 2026-10-08T03:06:33Z | 0 | — |
No-lookahead reconstructions of playoff odds across premier-league (premier-league-2011, premier-league-2012, premier-league-2013, premier-league-2014, premier-league-2015, premier-league-2016, premier-league-2017, premier-league-2018, premier-league-2019, premier-league-2020, premier-league-2021, premier-league-2022, premier-league-2023, premier-league-2024, premier-league-2025), scored for the current model against the base-rates-simulated baseline. 12360 team-week observations. These are reconstructions, not a live record.
Each panel: forecast probability across, observed frequency up. On the diagonal is perfectly calibrated; a point above it was under-confident, below it over-confident. Marker size grows with the team-weeks in the bin.
Playoff Brier by weeks-to-go (lower is better). The gap between the lines is the model's edge over the baseline at each point in the season.
| Weeks to go | n team-weeks | our model Brier | base Brier | skill | our model ECE | base ECE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15+ | 7860 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | +0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| 10-14 | 1500 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | +0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| 5-9 | 1500 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | +0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| 1-4 | 1200 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | +0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |