Magic Number.
MLS · 2026
1st by playoff odds30 clubs

Nashville

1st · 14-4-2 · 46 pts
Playoffs>99%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
7

Win the next 7 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Could clinch a playoff place as soon as Wed 9 Sep.

Next upSaturday · Home8:30 PM EDTNashville>99%PlayoffsColumbus26%PlayoffsMatch resultNSH 60%Draw 22%CLB 18%Win → 65% · Draw → 54% · Loss → 48%Supporters' Shield
Last resultFinal · Away19 AugNY Red Bulls0Nashville±01>99% → >99%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference76%
Supporters' Shield63%
MLS Cup21%

1st in the table · 1st by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish
1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 1st. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Home8:30 PM EDTNashville>99%PlayoffsColumbus26%PlayoffsMatch resultNSH 60%Draw 22%CLB 18%Win → 65% · Draw → 54% · Loss → 48%Supporters' Shield

Upcoming

Sat 29 Aug · Home8:30 PM EDTCincinnati99%PlayoffsMatch resultNSH 49%Draw 25%CIN 26%63% → 50% – 68%Supporters' ShieldFri 4 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTNY City82%PlayoffsMatch resultNYC 33%Draw 27%NSH 40%63% → 53% – 71%Supporters' ShieldWed 9 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTToronto14%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 26%Draw 25%NSH 49%63% → 51% – 70%Supporters' Shield
Full schedule14 to play
Saturday · Home8:30 PM EDTColumbus26%PlayoffsMatch resultNSH 60%Draw 22%CLB 18%63% → 48% – 65%Supporters' ShieldSat 29 Aug · Home8:30 PM EDTCincinnati99%PlayoffsMatch resultNSH 49%Draw 25%CIN 26%63% → 50% – 68%Supporters' ShieldFri 4 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTNY City82%PlayoffsMatch resultNYC 33%Draw 27%NSH 40%63% → 53% – 71%Supporters' ShieldWed 9 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTToronto14%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 26%Draw 25%NSH 49%63% → 51% – 70%Supporters' ShieldSat 12 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTMiami>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 49%Draw 25%NSH 26%76% → 63% – 89%ConferenceSat 19 Sep · Home9:30 PM EDTChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNSH 54%Draw 24%CHI 22%63% → 49% – 68%Supporters' ShieldSat 26 Sep · Home8:30 PM EDTToronto14%PlayoffsMatch resultNSH 66%Draw 19%TOR 15%63% → 49% – 68%Supporters' ShieldSat 10 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTAustin1%PlayoffsMatch resultATX 25%Draw 25%NSH 50%63% → 50% – 70%Supporters' ShieldWed 14 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTSporting KC<1%PlayoffsMatch resultNSH 73%Draw 16%SKC 11%63% → 46% – 66%Supporters' ShieldSat 17 Oct · Away10:30 PM EDTSan Jose91%PlayoffsMatch resultSJ 31%Draw 26%NSH 43%63% → 53% – 72%Supporters' ShieldSat 24 Oct · Away1:30 PM EDTMontreal8%PlayoffsMatch resultMTL 24%Draw 25%NSH 51%63% → 50% – 69%Supporters' ShieldWed 28 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTPhiladelphia36%PlayoffsMatch resultNSH 57%Draw 23%PHI 20%63% → 46% – 65%Supporters' ShieldSun 1 Nov · Home4:30 PM ESTNY Red Bulls52%PlayoffsMatch resultNSH 64%Draw 20%RBNY 16%63% → 47% – 65%Supporters' ShieldSat 7 Nov · Away4:00 PM ESTCincinnati99%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 41%Draw 27%NSH 32%63% → 52% – 73%Supporters' Shield

History

Final · Away19 AugNY Red Bulls0Nashville±01>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home15 AugMiami1Nashville±04>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away1 AugDC2Nashville±02>99% → >99%Playoffs
All results20 played
Final · Away19 AugNY Red Bulls0Nashville±01>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home15 AugMiami1Nashville±04>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away1 AugDC2Nashville±02>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away25 JulOrlando1Nashville±00>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home22 JulMontreal0Nashville±01>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home17 JulAtlanta0Nashville1Final · Home23 MayNY City1Nashville2Final · Home17 MayLAFC2Nashville3Final · Away13 MayNew England0Nashville3Final · Home9 MayDC2Nashville2Final · Away2 MayPhiladelphia0Nashville0Final · Home25 AprCharlotte2Nashville4Final · Away18 AprAtlanta0Nashville2Final · Away11 AprCharlotte1Nashville2Final · Away4 AprChicago1Nashville0Final · Home21 MarOrlando0Nashville5Final · Away14 MarColumbus0Nashville1Final · Home7 MarMinnesota1Nashville3Final · Away28 FebDallas0Nashville0Final · Home21 FebNew England1Nashville4

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-02-232026-08-20

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home>99%

Nashville 65+ points

Round One
1NashvilleHomeWild Card winner8 Columbus or 9 Toronto

Alongside it: 2 Miami v 7 NY Red Bulls · 3 New England v 6 Charlotte · 4 Chicago v 5 Cincinnati

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 20,000. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Nashville71
2Miami66
3New England55
4Chicago53
5Cincinnati48
6Charlotte48
7NY Red Bulls45
8Columbus41
9Toronto41
-NY City40
-Orlando38
Reach Round One directly, on the roadNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Host the Wild Card gameNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Play the Wild Card game awayNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Miss the postseasonNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.