Magic Number - Houston Dynamo 2026

Playoffs99%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

12

Win the next 12 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Happening nowIn progressAwayStarted 10:30 PM EDTHoustonVancouver

Last resultFinal · Home15 AugLA Galaxy0Houston±0197% → 97%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference9%

Supporters' Shield1%

MLS Cup5%

2nd in the table · 6th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 2nd. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The game in progress, what follows it, and what already happened.

Happening now

In progressAwayStarted 10:30 PM EDTHoustonVancouver

Upcoming

Saturday · Away8:30 PM EDTSt. Louis74%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 39%Draw 27%HOU 34%9% → 5% – 12%Conference Sat 29 Aug · Home8:30 PM EDTSan Jose91%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 51%Draw 25%SJ 24%9% → 5% – 10%Conference Sat 5 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTCharlotte95%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 45%Draw 26%HOU 29%9% → 6% – 12%Conference

Full schedule15 to play

In progressAwayStarted 10:30 PM EDTVancouver Saturday · Away8:30 PM EDTSt. Louis74%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 39%Draw 27%HOU 34%9% → 5% – 12%Conference Sat 29 Aug · Home8:30 PM EDTSan Jose91%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 51%Draw 25%SJ 24%9% → 5% – 10%Conference Sat 5 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTCharlotte95%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 45%Draw 26%HOU 29%9% → 6% – 12%Conference Wed 9 Sep · Home8:30 PM EDTSalt Lake85%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 49%Draw 25%RSL 26%9% → 4% – 10%Conference Sat 12 Sep · Away10:30 PM EDTSan Jose91%PlayoffsMatch resultSJ 38%Draw 27%HOU 35%9% → 5% – 12%Conference Sat 19 Sep · Home8:30 PM EDTCincinnati99%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 40%Draw 27%CIN 33%9% → 5% – 12%Conference Sat 26 Sep · Home8:30 PM EDTSporting KC<1%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 66%Draw 19%SKC 15%9% → 4% – 10%Conference Sat 10 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTMinnesota43%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 42%Draw 26%HOU 32%9% → 5% – 12%Conference Wed 14 Oct · Away10:30 PM EDTSan Diego56%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 44%Draw 26%HOU 30%9% → 5% – 12%Conference Sat 17 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTDallas93%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 46%Draw 26%DAL 28%9% → 4% – 10%Conference Sat 24 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTMinnesota43%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 49%Draw 25%MIN 26%9% → 3% – 9%Conference Wed 28 Oct · Away10:30 PM EDTSeattle64%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 42%Draw 26%HOU 32%9% → 4% – 12%Conference Sun 1 Nov · Away9:00 PM ESTPortland49%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 39%Draw 27%HOU 34%9% → 3% – 10%Conference Sat 7 Nov · Home7:00 PM ESTSt. Louis74%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 50%Draw 25%STL 25%9% → 5% – 11%Conference

History

Final · Home15 AugLA Galaxy0Houston±0197% → 97%Playoffs Final · Away8 AugNew England0Houston±0292% → 92%Playoffs Final · Away1 AugSporting KC0Houston±0284% → 84%Playoffs

All results19 played

Final · Home15 AugLA Galaxy0Houston±0197% → 97%Playoffs Final · Away8 AugNew England0Houston±0292% → 92%Playoffs Final · Away1 AugSporting KC0Houston±0284% → 84%Playoffs Final · Home25 JulAustin0Houston▼ -11382% → 71%Playoffs Final · Home22 JulDC1Houston▲ +1181% → 82%Playoffs Final · Away23 MayLA Galaxy1Houston1 Final · Home16 MayVancouver0Houston1 Final · Away13 MaySalt Lake3Houston0 Final · Away10 MayLAFC1Houston4 Final · Home2 MayColorado0Houston1 Final · Away25 AprAustin2Houston0 Final · Home22 AprSan Diego0Houston1 Final · Away18 AprOrlando0Houston1 Final · Away11 AprColorado6Houston2 Final · Home4 AprSeattle1Houston0 Final · Away21 MarDallas4Houston3 Final · Home14 MarPortland2Houston3 Final · Home28 FebLAFC2Houston0 Final · Home21 FebChicago1Houston2

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home74%

Houston 53+ points

Round One

2HoustonHome7Seattle

Alongside it: 1 Vancouver v Wild Card winner · 3 LAFC v 6 Dallas · 4 Salt Lake v 5 San Jose

88% of this route
- above DallasDallas 1+ point back (95%)
12% of this route
- below DallasDallas under 65 points (94%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 12,934. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Vancouver	68
2	Houston	59
3	LAFC	57
4	Salt Lake	56
5	San Jose	52
6	Dallas	52
7	Seattle	47
8	LA Galaxy	46
9	Portland	45
-	St. Louis	43
-	Colorado	41

Reach Round One directly, on the road21%

Houston 49+ points

Round One

4San JoseHome5Houston

Alongside it: 1 Vancouver v Wild Card winner · 2 Dallas v 7 St. Louis · 3 LAFC v 6 San Diego

68% of this route
- below DallasDallas under 62 points (91%)
32% of this route
- above DallasDallas under 53 points (90%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,854. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Vancouver	62
2	Dallas	57
3	LAFC	57
4	San Jose	54
5	Houston	52
6	San Diego	51
7	St. Louis	51
8	Seattle	48
9	Salt Lake	48
-	Minnesota	46
-	Portland	45

Reach the Wild Card game4%

Wild Card, host 2% · Wild Card, away 2%

Houston 46+ points

Wild Card

8HoustonHome9Minnesota

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 783. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Vancouver	64
2	Dallas	63
3	LAFC	57
4	San Jose	53
5	Salt Lake	52
6	St. Louis	52
7	Colorado	48
8	Houston	48
9	Minnesota	48
-	San Diego	48
-	Seattle	46

Miss the postseason1%

Houston under 49 points

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 264. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Vancouver	65
2	LAFC	63
3	Dallas	56
4	St. Louis	50
5	San Jose	49
6	Salt Lake	48
7	Seattle	48
8	Minnesota	48
9	Portland	47
-	San Diego	47
-	Houston	45