Magic Number.
MLS · 2026
20th by playoff odds30 clubs

Minnesota

9th · 6-7-7 · 25 pts
Playoffs43%
Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
14

Lose the next 14 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSaturday · Away10:30 PM EDTMinnesota43%PlayoffsSan Jose91%PlayoffsMatch resultSJ 42%Draw 26%MIN 32%Win → 52% · Draw → 37% · Loss → 29%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Home19 AugAtlanta2Minnesota▼ -18161% → 43%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup<1%

9th in the table · 20th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish
1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 11th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Away10:30 PM EDTMinnesota43%PlayoffsSan Jose91%PlayoffsMatch resultSJ 42%Draw 26%MIN 32%Win → 52% · Draw → 37% · Loss → 29%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sat 29 Aug · Home8:30 PM EDTOrlando60%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 46%Draw 26%ORL 28%43% → 28% – 49%PlayoffsSat 5 Sep · Away10:30 PM EDTPortland49%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 43%Draw 26%MIN 31%43% → 28% – 53%PlayoffsWed 9 Sep · Home8:30 PM EDTDallas93%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 43%Draw 26%DAL 31%43% → 28% – 51%Playoffs
Full schedule14 to play
Saturday · Away10:30 PM EDTSan Jose91%PlayoffsMatch resultSJ 42%Draw 26%MIN 32%43% → 29% – 52%PlayoffsSat 29 Aug · Home8:30 PM EDTOrlando60%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 46%Draw 26%ORL 28%43% → 28% – 49%PlayoffsSat 5 Sep · Away10:30 PM EDTPortland49%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 43%Draw 26%MIN 31%43% → 28% – 53%PlayoffsWed 9 Sep · Home8:30 PM EDTDallas93%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 43%Draw 26%DAL 31%43% → 28% – 51%PlayoffsSat 12 Sep · Away8:30 PM EDTSt. Louis74%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 43%Draw 26%MIN 31%43% → 31% – 56%PlayoffsSat 19 Sep · Home8:30 PM EDTLA Galaxy9%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 52%Draw 24%LA 24%43% → 26% – 48%PlayoffsSat 26 Sep · Away8:30 PM EDTSeattle64%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 45%Draw 26%MIN 29%43% → 30% – 56%PlayoffsSat 10 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTHouston99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 42%Draw 26%HOU 32%43% → 29% – 51%PlayoffsWed 14 Oct · Away9:30 PM EDTColorado37%PlayoffsMatch resultCOL 39%Draw 27%MIN 34%43% → 30% – 56%PlayoffsSat 17 Oct · Home4:30 PM EDTSt. Louis74%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 47%Draw 26%STL 27%43% → 30% – 55%PlayoffsSat 24 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTHouston99%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 49%Draw 25%MIN 26%43% → 37% – 59%PlayoffsWed 28 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTSporting KC<1%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 63%Draw 21%SKC 16%43% → 30% – 51%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away4:30 PM ESTLAFC99%PlayoffsMatch resultLAFC 53%Draw 24%MIN 23%43% → 36% – 59%PlayoffsSat 7 Nov · Home7:00 PM ESTSan Jose91%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 48%Draw 25%SJ 27%43% → 31% – 52%Playoffs

History

Final · Home19 AugAtlanta2Minnesota▼ -18161% → 43%PlayoffsFinal · Away15 AugSalt Lake1Minnesota±0166% → 66%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugSan Diego1Minnesota±0173% → 73%Playoffs
All results20 played
Final · Home19 AugAtlanta2Minnesota▼ -18161% → 43%PlayoffsFinal · Away15 AugSalt Lake1Minnesota±0166% → 66%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugSan Diego1Minnesota±0173% → 73%PlayoffsFinal · Home25 JulVancouver0Minnesota▼ -8083% → 75%PlayoffsFinal · Away22 JulSporting KC2Minnesota▼ -5188% → 83%PlayoffsFinal · Home23 MaySalt Lake1Minnesota1Final · Away16 MayNew England2Minnesota1Final · Home13 MayColorado1Minnesota0Final · Home10 MayAustin2Minnesota2Final · Away2 MayColumbus2Minnesota3Final · Home25 AprLAFC1Minnesota0Final · Away22 AprDallas0Minnesota1Final · Home18 AprPortland0Minnesota2Final · Away11 AprSan Diego1Minnesota2Final · Away4 AprLA Galaxy1Minnesota2Final · Home22 MarSeattle0Minnesota0Final · Away15 MarVancouver6Minnesota0Final · Away7 MarNashville3Minnesota1Final · Home28 FebCincinnati0Minnesota1Final · Away21 FebAustin2Minnesota2

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 Game on 19 Aug: 61% to 38%2026-02-232026-08-20

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home4%

Minnesota 52+ points

Round One
4MinnesotaHome5Portland

Alongside it: 1 Vancouver v Wild Card winner · 2 LAFC v 7 Dallas · 3 Salt Lake v 6 Houston

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 702. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Vancouver60
2LAFC59
3Salt Lake55
4Minnesota55
5Portland51
6Houston51
7Dallas51
8San Jose50
9St. Louis44
-Seattle44
-San Diego41
Reach Round One directly, on the road17%

Minnesota 48+ points

Round One
4HoustonHome5Minnesota

Alongside it: 1 Vancouver v Wild Card winner · 2 Salt Lake v 7 Portland · 3 LAFC v 6 San Diego

  1. 60% of this route

  2. 22% of this route

  3. 18% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,079. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Vancouver64
2Salt Lake58
3LAFC56
4Houston54
5Minnesota51
6San Diego50
7Portland49
8San Jose48
9Dallas48
-Colorado45
-St. Louis45
-Seattle44
Host the Wild Card game10%

Minnesota 46+ points

Wild Card
8MinnesotaHome9Dallas

  1. 61% of this route

  2. 24% of this route

  3. 15% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,174. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Vancouver66
2LAFC65
3Houston60
4Salt Lake54
5San Jose52
6LA Galaxy51
7St. Louis49
8Minnesota48
9Dallas45
-Portland42
-Seattle41
-Colorado41
Play the Wild Card game away12%

Minnesota 44+ points

Wild Card
8VancouverHome9Minnesota

  1. 75% of this route

    • above ColoradoColorado out of the postseason (>99%) · Colorado 1+ point back (>99%)

  2. 25% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,858. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Houston56
2LAFC56
3San Jose55
4San Diego54
5St. Louis54
6Dallas52
7Salt Lake52
8Vancouver51
9Minnesota46
-Seattle43
-Colorado41
-LA Galaxy39
Miss the postseason57%

Minnesota under 48 points

  1. 65% of this route

  2. 22% of this route

  3. 13% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 7,432. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1LAFC64
2Vancouver64
3Houston61
4Salt Lake58
5San Diego48
6Colorado47
7Portland47
8St. Louis47
9San Jose46
-Seattle46
-Dallas46
-Minnesota41