Magic Number - Seattle Sounders 2026

Playoffs89%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

6

Win the next 6 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Could clinch a playoff place as soon as Sat 24 Oct.

Next upSaturday · Away7:30 PM EDTSeattle89%PlayoffsNew England>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 43%Draw 26%SEA 31%Win → 98% · Draw → 88% · Loss → 80%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Home1 OctSporting KC1Seattle▲ +8281% → 89%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%

Supporters' ShieldOut

MLS Cup2%

7th in the table · 13th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 7th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Away7:30 PM EDTSeattle89%PlayoffsNew England>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 43%Draw 26%SEA 31%Win → 98% · Draw → 88% · Loss → 80%Playoffs

Upcoming

Wednesday · Away8:30 PM EDTDallas>99%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 50%Draw 25%SEA 25%89% → 83% – 98%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Home10:30 PM EDTMontreal<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 60%Draw 22%MTL 18%89% → 74% – 94%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Away10:30 PM EDTSan Diego28%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 43%Draw 26%SEA 31%89% → 81% – 97%Playoffs

Full schedule7 to play

Saturday · Away7:30 PM EDTNew England>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 43%Draw 26%SEA 31%89% → 80% – 98%Playoffs Wednesday · Away8:30 PM EDTDallas>99%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 50%Draw 25%SEA 25%89% → 83% – 98%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Home10:30 PM EDTMontreal<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 60%Draw 22%MTL 18%89% → 74% – 94%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Away10:30 PM EDTSan Diego28%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 43%Draw 26%SEA 31%89% → 81% – 97%Playoffs Wed 28 Oct · Home10:30 PM EDTHouston>99%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 46%Draw 26%HOU 28%89% → 79% – 95%Playoffs Sun 1 Nov · Away4:30 PM ESTVancouver>99%PlayoffsMatch resultVAN 51%Draw 25%SEA 24%89% → 84% – 97%Playoffs Sat 7 Nov · Home7:00 PM ESTLAFC98%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 43%Draw 26%LAFC 31%89% → 83% – 95%Playoffs

History

Final · Home1 OctSporting KC1Seattle▲ +8281% → 89%Playoffs Final · Home26 SepMinnesota1Seattle▲ +14366% → 80%Playoffs Final · Home23 SepSalt Lake0Seattle±0250% → 50%Playoffs

All results27 played

Final · Home1 OctSporting KC1Seattle▲ +8281% → 89%Playoffs Final · Home26 SepMinnesota1Seattle▲ +14366% → 80%Playoffs Final · Home23 SepSalt Lake0Seattle±0250% → 50%Playoffs Final · Away19 SepColorado3Seattle▲ +9344% → 53%Playoffs Final · Away12 SepLA Galaxy1Seattle▲ +2142% → 44%Playoffs Final · Home5 SepNY Red Bulls0Seattle▼ -3041% → 38%Playoffs Final · Home29 AugChicago2Seattle±0245% → 45%Playoffs Final · Away22 AugCincinnati1Seattle▼ -18164% → 46%Playoffs Final · Home19 AugAustin2Seattle±0164% → 64%Playoffs Final · Home16 AugVancouver2Seattle±0073% → 73%Playoffs Final · Away1 AugPortland2Seattle±0186% → 86%Playoffs Final · Away25 JulPhiladelphia1Seattle▼ -5097% → 92%Playoffs Final · Away22 JulAustin3Seattle▲ +1196% → 97%Playoffs Final · Home16 JulPortland5Seattle1 Final · Away24 MayLAFC1Seattle0 Final · Home16 MayLA Galaxy2Seattle0 Final · Home13 MaySan Jose2Seattle3 Final · Home9 MaySan Diego1Seattle1 Final · Away2 MaySporting KC1Seattle1 Final · Home25 AprDallas1Seattle2 Final · Home18 AprSt. Louis1Seattle4 Final · Away4 AprHouston0Seattle1 Final · Away22 MarMinnesota0Seattle0 Final · Away15 MarSan Jose0Seattle1 Final · Away7 MarSt. Louis0Seattle1 Final · Away28 FebSalt Lake2Seattle1 Final · Home22 FebColorado0Seattle2

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home3%

Seattle 52+ points

Round One

3SeattleHome6Houston

Alongside it: 1 Vancouver v Wild Card winner · 2 St. Louis v 7 LAFC · 4 Dallas v 5 San Jose

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 655. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Vancouver	65
2	St. Louis	58
3	Seattle	54
4	Dallas	53
5	San Jose	52
6	Houston	52
7	LAFC	49
8	Colorado	46
9	Portland	42
-	Minnesota	42
-	LA Galaxy	41

Reach Round One directly, on the road55%

Seattle 46+ points

Round One

3St. LouisHome6Seattle

Alongside it: 1 Vancouver v Wild Card winner · 2 Dallas v 7 San Diego · 4 San Jose v 5 Houston

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 10,959. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Vancouver	64
2	Dallas	58
3	St. Louis	58
4	San Jose	57
5	Houston	53
6	Seattle	49
7	San Diego	48
8	LAFC	48
9	Colorado	44
-	LA Galaxy	44
-	Salt Lake	40

Host the Wild Card game20%

Seattle 44+ points

Wild Card

8SeattleHome9Colorado

52% of this route
- above ColoradoColorado 1+ point back (>99%)
48% of this route
- below ColoradoColorado under 52 points (91%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,019. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	St. Louis	63
2	Vancouver	61
3	Houston	61
4	Dallas	60
5	San Jose	54
6	LAFC	51
7	LA Galaxy	49
8	Seattle	46
9	Colorado	42
-	Austin	41
-	Portland	38

Play the Wild Card game away11%

Seattle 43+ points

Wild Card

8Salt LakeHome9Seattle

40% of this route
- below ColoradoColorado under 51 points (91%)
- above LA GalaxyLA Galaxy out of the postseason (>99%) · LA Galaxy under 46 points (96%)
32% of this route
- below ColoradoColorado under 51 points (90%)
- below LA GalaxyLA Galaxy under 51 points (91%)
27% of this route
- above ColoradoColorado out of the postseason (>99%) · Colorado 1+ point back (>99%)
- below LA GalaxyLA Galaxy under 50 points (95%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 924. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	St. Louis	62
2	Houston	60
3	Vancouver	58
4	San Jose	56
5	Dallas	52
6	LAFC	48
7	Colorado	47
8	Salt Lake	45
9	Seattle	45
-	LA Galaxy	42
-	Austin	42

Miss the postseason11%

Seattle under 46 points

79% of this route
- below LA GalaxyLA Galaxy under 50 points (95%)
21% of this route
- above LA GalaxyLA Galaxy 1+ point back (>99%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,714. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Vancouver	67
2	Dallas	56
3	Houston	55
4	San Jose	53
5	St. Louis	50
6	LAFC	48
7	LA Galaxy	46
8	Colorado	45
9	Salt Lake	43
-	San Diego	43
-	Seattle	42