Magic Number.
MLS · 2026
15th by playoff odds30 clubs

Seattle

11th · 7-3-8 · 24 pts
Playoffs64%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
15

Win the next 15 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
15

Lose the next 15 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Happening nowIn progressHomeStarted 9:30 PM EDTSeattleAustin
Last resultFinal · Home16 AugVancouver2Seattle±0073% → 73%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup1%

11th in the table · 15th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish
1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 8th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The game in progress, what follows it, and what already happened.

Happening now

In progressHomeStarted 9:30 PM EDTSeattleAustin

Upcoming

Saturday · Away7:30 PM EDTCincinnati99%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 53%Draw 24%SEA 23%64% → 64% – 79%PlayoffsSat 29 Aug · Home4:30 PM EDTChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 42%Draw 26%CHI 32%64% → 60% – 77%PlayoffsSat 5 Sep · Home8:30 PM EDTNY Red Bulls52%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 52%Draw 24%RBNY 24%64% → 59% – 76%Playoffs
Full schedule16 to play
In progressHomeStarted 9:30 PM EDTAustinSaturday · Away7:30 PM EDTCincinnati99%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 53%Draw 24%SEA 23%64% → 64% – 79%PlayoffsSat 29 Aug · Home4:30 PM EDTChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 42%Draw 26%CHI 32%64% → 60% – 77%PlayoffsSat 5 Sep · Home8:30 PM EDTNY Red Bulls52%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 52%Draw 24%RBNY 24%64% → 59% – 76%PlayoffsSat 12 Sep · Away10:30 PM EDTLA Galaxy9%PlayoffsMatch resultLA 38%Draw 27%SEA 35%64% → 61% – 78%PlayoffsSat 19 Sep · Away9:30 PM EDTColorado37%PlayoffsMatch resultCOL 38%Draw 27%SEA 35%64% → 61% – 79%PlayoffsWed 23 Sep · Home9:30 PM EDTSalt Lake85%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 45%Draw 26%RSL 29%64% → 59% – 78%PlayoffsSat 26 Sep · Home8:30 PM EDTMinnesota43%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 45%Draw 26%MIN 29%64% → 59% – 79%PlayoffsThu 1 Oct · Home9:30 PM EDTSporting KC<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 63%Draw 21%SKC 16%64% → 57% – 75%PlayoffsSat 10 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTNew England96%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 40%Draw 27%SEA 33%64% → 62% – 79%PlayoffsWed 14 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTDallas93%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 47%Draw 26%SEA 27%64% → 63% – 81%PlayoffsSat 17 Oct · Home10:30 PM EDTMontreal8%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 57%Draw 23%MTL 20%64% → 58% – 77%PlayoffsSat 24 Oct · Away10:30 PM EDTSan Diego56%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 47%Draw 26%SEA 27%64% → 63% – 83%PlayoffsWed 28 Oct · Home10:30 PM EDTHouston99%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 42%Draw 26%HOU 32%64% → 59% – 78%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away4:30 PM ESTVancouver>99%PlayoffsMatch resultVAN 57%Draw 23%SEA 20%64% → 63% – 81%PlayoffsSat 7 Nov · Home7:00 PM ESTLAFC99%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 37%Draw 27%LAFC 36%64% → 59% – 80%Playoffs

History

Final · Home16 AugVancouver2Seattle±0073% → 73%PlayoffsFinal · Away1 AugPortland2Seattle±0186% → 86%PlayoffsFinal · Away25 JulPhiladelphia1Seattle▼ -5097% → 92%Playoffs
All results18 played
Final · Home16 AugVancouver2Seattle±0073% → 73%PlayoffsFinal · Away1 AugPortland2Seattle±0186% → 86%PlayoffsFinal · Away25 JulPhiladelphia1Seattle▼ -5097% → 92%PlayoffsFinal · Away22 JulAustin3Seattle▲ +1196% → 97%PlayoffsFinal · Home16 JulPortland5Seattle1Final · Away24 MayLAFC1Seattle0Final · Home16 MayLA Galaxy2Seattle0Final · Home13 MaySan Jose2Seattle3Final · Home9 MaySan Diego1Seattle1Final · Away2 MaySporting KC1Seattle1Final · Home25 AprDallas1Seattle2Final · Home18 AprSt. Louis1Seattle4Final · Away4 AprHouston0Seattle1Final · Away22 MarMinnesota0Seattle0Final · Away15 MarSan Jose0Seattle1Final · Away7 MarSt. Louis0Seattle1Final · Away28 FebSalt Lake2Seattle1Final · Home22 FebColorado0Seattle2

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-02-232026-08-20

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home10%

Seattle 52+ points

Round One
2SeattleHome7LAFC

Alongside it: 1 Vancouver v Wild Card winner · 3 Salt Lake v 6 San Jose · 4 Houston v 5 Dallas

  1. 71% of this route

  2. 15% of this route

  3. 14% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,481. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Vancouver71
2Seattle56
3Salt Lake56
4Houston55
5Dallas51
6San Jose50
7LAFC49
8LA Galaxy46
9St. Louis46
-Colorado45
-San Diego45
Reach Round One directly, on the road29%

Seattle 47+ points

Round One
4San JoseHome5Seattle

Alongside it: 1 Vancouver v Wild Card winner · 2 Houston v 7 St. Louis · 3 LAFC v 6 Minnesota

  1. 62% of this route

  2. 26% of this route

  3. 13% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,584. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Vancouver67
2Houston62
3LAFC59
4San Jose54
5Seattle51
6Minnesota50
7St. Louis46
8Dallas46
9Portland45
-Salt Lake44
-San Diego44
Host the Wild Card game13%

Seattle 45+ points

Wild Card
8SeattleHome9Portland

  1. 63% of this route

  2. 21% of this route

  3. 16% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,572. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Houston65
2Vancouver62
3LAFC60
4Salt Lake55
5San Jose53
6Dallas53
7St. Louis49
8Seattle48
9Portland46
-San Diego44
-Minnesota43
-Colorado41
Play the Wild Card game away12%

Seattle 44+ points

Wild Card
8St. LouisHome9Seattle

  1. 85% of this route

  2. 15% of this route

    • above Salt LakeSalt Lake out of the postseason (>99%) · Salt Lake under 48 points (97%)
How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,074. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Vancouver64
2Houston64
3San Jose62
4Salt Lake53
5Dallas53
6Colorado51
7LAFC50
8St. Louis49
9Seattle46
-San Diego46
-Minnesota44
Miss the postseason36%

Seattle under 48 points

  1. 66% of this route

  2. 19% of this route

  3. 15% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,730. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Vancouver70
2Salt Lake60
3St. Louis58
4Dallas54
5LAFC52
6Houston50
7San Jose49
8San Diego48
9Minnesota47
-Seattle41
-Colorado41