Magic Number - Real Salt Lake 2026

Playoffs19%

Elimination number

The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.

6

Lose the next 6 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Could be eliminated as soon as Sat 24 Oct.

Next upSaturday · Away7:30 PM EDTSalt Lake19%PlayoffsPhiladelphia99%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 59%Draw 22%RSL 19%Win → 31% · Draw → 19% · Loss → 13%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Home26 SepNew England0Salt Lake▲ +10311% → 21%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%

Supporters' ShieldOut

MLS Cup<1%

11th in the table · 22th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 12th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Away7:30 PM EDTSalt Lake19%PlayoffsPhiladelphia99%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 59%Draw 22%RSL 19%Win → 31% · Draw → 19% · Loss → 13%Playoffs

Upcoming

Wednesday · Home9:30 PM EDTSan Jose>99%PlayoffsMatch resultRSL 38%Draw 27%SJ 35%19% → 9% – 29%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTSporting KC<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSKC 35%Draw 27%RSL 38%19% → 10% – 30%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTSt. Louis>99%PlayoffsMatch resultRSL 33%Draw 27%STL 40%19% → 10% – 29%Playoffs

Full schedule7 to play

Saturday · Away7:30 PM EDTPhiladelphia99%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 59%Draw 22%RSL 19%19% → 13% – 31%Playoffs Wednesday · Home9:30 PM EDTSan Jose>99%PlayoffsMatch resultRSL 38%Draw 27%SJ 35%19% → 9% – 29%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTSporting KC<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSKC 35%Draw 27%RSL 38%19% → 10% – 30%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTSt. Louis>99%PlayoffsMatch resultRSL 33%Draw 27%STL 40%19% → 10% – 29%Playoffs Wed 28 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTAustin15%PlayoffsMatch resultATX 49%Draw 25%RSL 26%19% → 8% – 29%Playoffs Sat 31 Oct · Away5:00 PM EDTSan Jose>99%PlayoffsMatch resultSJ 51%Draw 25%RSL 24%19% → 9% – 29%Playoffs Sat 7 Nov · Home7:00 PM ESTLA Galaxy53%PlayoffsMatch resultRSL 40%Draw 27%LA 33%19% → 6% – 26%Playoffs

History

Final · Home26 SepNew England0Salt Lake▲ +10311% → 21%Playoffs Final · Away23 SepSeattle2Salt Lake±0020% → 20%Playoffs Final · Home19 SepVancouver3Salt Lake▼ -7027% → 20%Playoffs

All results27 played

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home<1%

A possible long-shot route: 3 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Salt Lake 51+ points

Reach Round One directly, on the road3%

Salt Lake 45+ points

Round One

2DallasHome7Salt Lake

Alongside it: 1 Vancouver v Wild Card winner · 3 St. Louis v 6 LAFC · 4 Houston v 5 San Jose

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 681. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Vancouver	64
2	Dallas	61
3	St. Louis	59
4	Houston	55
5	San Jose	52
6	LAFC	52
7	Salt Lake	47
8	Seattle	46
9	Colorado	44
-	LA Galaxy	43
-	Austin	42

Host the Wild Card game6%

Salt Lake 43+ points

Wild Card

8Salt LakeHome9Portland

76% of this route
- above ColoradoColorado 1+ point back (96%)
24% of this route
- below ColoradoColorado under 52 points (93%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 904. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	St. Louis	63
2	Vancouver	60
3	LAFC	54
4	Dallas	54
5	San Jose	53
6	Houston	52
7	San Diego	46
8	Salt Lake	45
9	Portland	43
-	Seattle	43
-	LA Galaxy	43
-	Colorado	42

Play the Wild Card game away10%

Salt Lake 42+ points

Wild Card

8LAFCHome9Salt Lake

86% of this route
- above San DiegoSan Diego out of the postseason (>99%) · San Diego under 44 points (92%)
14% of this route
- below San DiegoSan Diego under 50 points (94%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,669. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Vancouver	68
2	Dallas	58
3	Houston	56
4	St. Louis	53
5	San Jose	51
6	LA Galaxy	49
7	Seattle	47
8	LAFC	45
9	Salt Lake	44
-	Colorado	42
-	Minnesota	41
-	Austin	40
-	San Diego	40

Miss the postseason81%

Salt Lake under 45 points

76% of this route
- below San DiegoSan Diego under 48 points (94%)
24% of this route
- above San DiegoSan Diego 1+ point back (>99%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 12,259. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Dallas	62
2	St. Louis	57
3	San Jose	56
4	Vancouver	55
5	Houston	53
6	LAFC	51
7	Seattle	47
8	Colorado	46
9	Portland	44
-	LA Galaxy	44
-	San Diego	43
-	Salt Lake	39