Magic Number - Vancouver Whitecaps 2026

Playoffs>99%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

11

Win the next 11 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Happening nowIn progressHomeStarted 10:30 PM EDTVancouverHouston

Last resultFinal · Away16 AugSeattle0Vancouver±02>99% → >99%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference77%

Supporters' Shield18%

MLS Cup19%

1st in the table · 3rd by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 1st. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The game in progress, what follows it, and what already happened.

Happening now

In progressHomeStarted 10:30 PM EDTVancouverHouston

Upcoming

Saturday · Home9:30 PM EDTDallas93%PlayoffsMatch resultVAN 54%Draw 24%DAL 22%77% → 71% – 86%Conference Sat 29 Aug · Away8:30 PM EDTSporting KC<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSKC 20%Draw 23%VAN 57%77% → 72% – 86%Conference Sat 5 Sep · Home10:30 PM EDTSt. Louis74%PlayoffsMatch resultVAN 59%Draw 22%STL 19%77% → 72% – 86%Conference

Full schedule16 to play

In progressHomeStarted 10:30 PM EDTHouston Saturday · Home9:30 PM EDTDallas93%PlayoffsMatch resultVAN 54%Draw 24%DAL 22%77% → 71% – 86%Conference Sat 29 Aug · Away8:30 PM EDTSporting KC<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSKC 20%Draw 23%VAN 57%77% → 72% – 86%Conference Sat 5 Sep · Home10:30 PM EDTSt. Louis74%PlayoffsMatch resultVAN 59%Draw 22%STL 19%77% → 72% – 86%Conference Wed 9 Sep · Home10:30 PM EDTLA Galaxy9%PlayoffsMatch resultVAN 64%Draw 20%LA 16%77% → 72% – 85%Conference Sun 13 Sep · Home6:30 PM EDTAustin1%PlayoffsMatch resultVAN 66%Draw 19%ATX 15%77% → 70% – 84%Conference Sat 19 Sep · Away9:30 PM EDTSalt Lake85%PlayoffsMatch resultRSL 33%Draw 27%VAN 40%77% → 73% – 86%Conference Sat 26 Sep · Home10:30 PM EDTDC27%PlayoffsMatch resultVAN 66%Draw 19%DC 15%77% → 70% – 84%Conference Tue 6 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 36%Draw 27%VAN 37%18% → 13% – 28%Supporters' Shield Sat 10 Oct · Away10:30 PM EDTLAFC99%PlayoffsMatch resultLAFC 41%Draw 27%VAN 32%77% → 73% – 90%Conference Wed 14 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTSt. Louis74%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 32%Draw 26%VAN 42%77% → 71% – 85%Conference Sat 17 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTAustin1%PlayoffsMatch resultATX 26%Draw 25%VAN 49%18% → 13% – 26%Supporters' Shield Sat 24 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTColorado37%PlayoffsMatch resultCOL 28%Draw 26%VAN 46%18% → 14% – 28%Supporters' Shield Wed 28 Oct · Home10:30 PM EDTSan Diego56%PlayoffsMatch resultVAN 54%Draw 24%SD 22%77% → 70% – 83%Conference Sun 1 Nov · Home4:30 PM ESTSeattle64%PlayoffsMatch resultVAN 57%Draw 23%SEA 20%77% → 67% – 80%Conference Sat 7 Nov · Away4:00 PM ESTMontreal8%PlayoffsMatch resultMTL 24%Draw 25%VAN 51%77% → 65% – 79%Conference

History

Final · Away16 AugSeattle0Vancouver±02>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home1 AugLAFC1Vancouver±01>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away25 JulMinnesota0Vancouver±00>99% → >99%Playoffs

All results18 played

Final · Away16 AugSeattle0Vancouver±02>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home1 AugLAFC1Vancouver±01>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away25 JulMinnesota0Vancouver±00>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away22 JulCincinnati4Vancouver±03>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away23 MaySan Diego2Vancouver4 Final · Away16 MayHouston1Vancouver0 Final · Away13 MayDallas2Vancouver3 Final · Away9 MaySan Jose1Vancouver1 Final · Away2 MayLA Galaxy1Vancouver1 Final · Home25 AprColorado1Vancouver3 Final · Home17 AprSporting KC0Vancouver3 Final · Home11 AprNY City0Vancouver2 Final · Home4 AprPortland2Vancouver3 Final · Home21 MarSan Jose1Vancouver0 Final · Home15 MarMinnesota0Vancouver6 Final · Away7 MarPortland1Vancouver4 Final · Home28 FebToronto0Vancouver3 Final · Home21 FebSalt Lake0Vancouver1

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home99%

Vancouver 59+ points

Round One

1VancouverHomeWild Card winner8 Dallas or 9 San Diego

Alongside it: 2 Houston v 7 St. Louis · 3 LAFC v 6 Seattle · 4 San Jose v 5 Salt Lake

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 19,765. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Vancouver	66
2	Houston	61
3	LAFC	58
4	San Jose	56
5	Salt Lake	52
6	Seattle	49
7	St. Louis	48
8	Dallas	47
9	San Diego	46
-	Minnesota	45
-	Portland	45

Reach Round One directly, on the road1%

Vancouver 51+ points

Round One

4Salt LakeHome5Vancouver

Alongside it: 1 Houston v Wild Card winner · 2 LAFC v 7 St. Louis · 3 Dallas v 6 Portland

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 218. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Houston	59
2	LAFC	58
3	Dallas	58
4	Salt Lake	54
5	Vancouver	53
6	Portland	52
7	St. Louis	51
8	San Jose	50
9	San Diego	48
-	Seattle	46
-	LA Galaxy	46

Host the Wild Card game<1%

A possible long-shot route: 10 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Vancouver 47+ points

Play the Wild Card game away<1%

A possible long-shot route: 6 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Vancouver 47+ points

Miss the postseason<1%

A possible long-shot route: 1 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Vancouver under 46 points