Magic Number - Vancouver Whitecaps 2026

Playoffs>99%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

2

Win the next 2 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Could clinch a playoff place as soon as Saturday.

Next upSaturday · Away10:30 PM EDTVancouver>99%PlayoffsLAFC98%PlayoffsMatch resultLAFC 40%Draw 27%VAN 33%Win → 69% · Draw → 52% · Loss → 44%Conference

Last resultFinal · Away6 OctChicago3Vancouver±01>99% → >99%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference54%

Supporters' Shield1%

MLS Cup13%

1st in the table · 2nd by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 1st. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Away10:30 PM EDTVancouver>99%PlayoffsLAFC98%PlayoffsMatch resultLAFC 40%Draw 27%VAN 33%Win → 69% · Draw → 52% · Loss → 44%Conference

Upcoming

Wednesday · Away8:30 PM EDTSt. Louis>99%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 43%Draw 26%VAN 31%54% → 39% – 74%Conference Sat 17 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTAustin15%PlayoffsMatch resultATX 34%Draw 27%VAN 39%54% → 39% – 65%Conference Sat 24 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTColorado67%PlayoffsMatch resultCOL 32%Draw 27%VAN 41%54% → 38% – 64%Conference

Full schedule7 to play

Saturday · Away10:30 PM EDTLAFC98%PlayoffsMatch resultLAFC 40%Draw 27%VAN 33%54% → 44% – 69%Conference Wednesday · Away8:30 PM EDTSt. Louis>99%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 43%Draw 26%VAN 31%54% → 39% – 74%Conference Sat 17 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTAustin15%PlayoffsMatch resultATX 34%Draw 27%VAN 39%54% → 39% – 65%Conference Sat 24 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTColorado67%PlayoffsMatch resultCOL 32%Draw 27%VAN 41%54% → 38% – 64%Conference Wed 28 Oct · Home10:30 PM EDTSan Diego28%PlayoffsMatch resultVAN 53%Draw 24%SD 23%54% → 35% – 61%Conference Sun 1 Nov · Home4:30 PM ESTSeattle89%PlayoffsMatch resultVAN 51%Draw 25%SEA 24%54% → 36% – 64%Conference Sat 7 Nov · Away4:00 PM ESTMontreal<1%PlayoffsMatch resultMTL 25%Draw 25%VAN 50%54% → 41% – 66%Conference

History

Final · Away6 OctChicago3Vancouver±01>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home26 SepDC3Vancouver±03>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away19 SepSalt Lake0Vancouver±03>99% → >99%Playoffs

All results27 played

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home98%

Vancouver 57+ points

Round One

1VancouverHomeWild Card winner8 Portland or 9 Colorado

Alongside it: 2 Dallas v 7 Seattle · 3 Houston v 6 LAFC · 4 St. Louis v 5 San Jose

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 19,613. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Vancouver	61
2	Dallas	60
3	Houston	59
4	St. Louis	58
5	San Jose	55
6	LAFC	52
7	Seattle	51
8	Portland	46
9	Colorado	43
-	San Diego	41
-	LA Galaxy	40

Reach Round One directly, on the road2%

Vancouver 52+ points

Round One

4St. LouisHome5Vancouver

Alongside it: 1 Dallas v Wild Card winner · 2 San Jose v 7 Seattle · 3 Houston v 6 LAFC

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 387. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Dallas	60
2	San Jose	56
3	Houston	55
4	St. Louis	55
5	Vancouver	54
6	LAFC	51
7	Seattle	51
8	Austin	49
9	LA Galaxy	46
-	Salt Lake	43
-	Colorado	42

Host the Wild Card gameNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Play the Wild Card game awayNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Miss the postseasonNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.