Magic Number - St. Louis City 2026

Playoffs>99%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

3

Win the next 3 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Could clinch a playoff place as soon as Wednesday.

Next upSunday · Home7:00 PM EDTSt. Louis>99%PlayoffsLA Galaxy53%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 53%Draw 24%LA 23%Win → 21% · Draw → 9% · Loss → 5%Conference

Last resultFinal · Away30 SepNY Red Bulls0St. Louis±03>99% → >99%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference19%

Supporters' Shield<1%

MLS Cup8%

2nd in the table · 3rd by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 3rd. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Sunday · Home7:00 PM EDTSt. Louis>99%PlayoffsLA Galaxy53%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 53%Draw 24%LA 23%Win → 21% · Draw → 9% · Loss → 5%Conference

Upcoming

Wednesday · Home8:30 PM EDTVancouver>99%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 43%Draw 26%VAN 31%19% → 4% – 29%Conference Sat 17 Oct · Away4:30 PM EDTMinnesota6%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 35%Draw 27%STL 38%19% → 10% – 28%Conference Sat 24 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTSalt Lake19%PlayoffsMatch resultRSL 33%Draw 27%STL 40%19% → 11% – 29%Conference

Full schedule7 to play

Sunday · Home7:00 PM EDTLA Galaxy53%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 53%Draw 24%LA 23%19% → 5% – 21%Conference Wednesday · Home8:30 PM EDTVancouver>99%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 43%Draw 26%VAN 31%19% → 4% – 29%Conference Sat 17 Oct · Away4:30 PM EDTMinnesota6%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 35%Draw 27%STL 38%19% → 10% – 28%Conference Sat 24 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTSalt Lake19%PlayoffsMatch resultRSL 33%Draw 27%STL 40%19% → 11% – 29%Conference Wed 28 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTPortland24%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 56%Draw 23%POR 21%19% → 10% – 27%Conference Sat 31 Oct · Home3:00 PM EDTSan Diego28%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 50%Draw 25%SD 25%19% → 10% – 28%Conference Sat 7 Nov · Away7:00 PM ESTHouston>99%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 41%Draw 27%STL 32%19% → 14% – 36%Conference

History

Final · Away30 SepNY Red Bulls0St. Louis±03>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home19 SepToronto1St. Louis±03>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home12 SepMinnesota2St. Louis▲ +3497% → >99%Playoffs

All results27 played

Final · Away30 SepNY Red Bulls0St. Louis±03>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home19 SepToronto1St. Louis±03>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home12 SepMinnesota2St. Louis▲ +3497% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away9 SepPortland2St. Louis±0297% → 97%Playoffs Final · Away5 SepVancouver1St. Louis±0387% → 87%Playoffs Final · Home30 AugDallas3St. Louis±0386% → 86%Playoffs Final · Home22 AugHouston1St. Louis▲ +12274% → 86%Playoffs Final · Away19 AugSporting KC1St. Louis▲ +1173% → 74%Playoffs Final · Away15 AugSan Jose1St. Louis±0358% → 58%Playoffs Final · Home1 AugSalt Lake1St. Louis▲ +1165% → 66%Playoffs Final · Home25 JulColorado0St. Louis▲ +14134% → 48%Playoffs Final · Away22 JulLA Galaxy1St. Louis▲ +3331% → 34%Playoffs Final · Home16 JulSporting KC2St. Louis3 Final · Home23 MayAustin0St. Louis3 Final · Away16 MayDC1St. Louis1 Final · Home13 MayLAFC1St. Louis2 Final · Away9 MayColorado0St. Louis1 Final · Away3 MayAustin2St. Louis0 Final · Home25 AprSan Jose3St. Louis2 Final · Away18 AprSeattle4St. Louis1 Final · Away11 AprDallas1St. Louis1 Final · Away4 AprNY City1St. Louis1 Final · Home21 MarNew England1St. Louis3 Final · Away14 MarLAFC2St. Louis0 Final · Home7 MarSeattle1St. Louis0 Final · Away1 MarSan Diego2St. Louis0 Final · Home21 FebCharlotte1St. Louis1

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home88%

St. Louis 54+ points

Round One

2St. LouisHome7Portland

Alongside it: 1 Vancouver v Wild Card winner · 3 Dallas v 6 LAFC · 4 San Jose v 5 Houston

73% of this route
- above HoustonHouston 2+ points back (94%)
- above San JoseSan Jose 2+ points back (92%)
15% of this route
- above HoustonHouston 1+ point back (99%)
- below San JoseSan Jose under 62 points (91%)
13% of this route
- below HoustonHouston under 62 points (94%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 12,826. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Vancouver	60
2	St. Louis	60
3	Dallas	55
4	San Jose	54
5	Houston	53
6	LAFC	51
7	Portland	45
8	San Diego	44
9	Salt Lake	43
-	Seattle	43
-	LA Galaxy	42

Reach Round One directly, on the road12%

St. Louis 51+ points

Round One

4HoustonHome5St. Louis

Alongside it: 1 Vancouver v Wild Card winner · 2 Dallas v 7 Portland · 3 San Jose v 6 LAFC

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,350. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Vancouver	66
2	Dallas	59
3	San Jose	56
4	Houston	56
5	St. Louis	53
6	LAFC	46
7	Portland	45
8	Seattle	45
9	Colorado	44
-	LA Galaxy	44
-	San Diego	43

Reach the Wild Card game<1%

Wild Card, host <1% · Wild Card, away <1%

A possible long-shot route: 11 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

St. Louis 48+ points

Miss the postseasonNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.