Magic Number.
MLS · 2026
5th by playoff odds30 clubs

LAFC

3rd · 10-4-6 · 34 pts
Playoffs99%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
12

Win the next 12 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Happening nowIn progressAwayStarted 9:30 PM EDTLAFCColorado
Last resultFinal · Home15 AugSan Diego1LAFC±00>99% → >99%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference9%
Supporters' Shield1%
MLS Cup8%

3rd in the table · 5th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish
1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 2nd. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The game in progress, what follows it, and what already happened.

Happening now

In progressAwayStarted 9:30 PM EDTLAFCColorado

Upcoming

Saturday · Home10:30 PM EDTPortland49%PlayoffsMatch resultLAFC 56%Draw 23%POR 21%9% → 4% – 10%ConferenceSat 29 Aug · Away7:30 PM EDTDC27%PlayoffsMatch resultDC 29%Draw 26%LAFC 45%9% → 4% – 11%ConferenceSat 5 Sep · Away9:30 PM EDTSalt Lake85%PlayoffsMatch resultRSL 37%Draw 27%LAFC 36%9% → 5% – 11%Conference
Full schedule14 to play
In progressAwayStarted 9:30 PM EDTColoradoSaturday · Home10:30 PM EDTPortland49%PlayoffsMatch resultLAFC 56%Draw 23%POR 21%9% → 4% – 10%ConferenceSat 29 Aug · Away7:30 PM EDTDC27%PlayoffsMatch resultDC 29%Draw 26%LAFC 45%9% → 4% – 11%ConferenceSat 5 Sep · Away9:30 PM EDTSalt Lake85%PlayoffsMatch resultRSL 37%Draw 27%LAFC 36%9% → 5% – 11%ConferenceWed 9 Sep · Home10:30 PM EDTNY Red Bulls52%PlayoffsMatch resultLAFC 60%Draw 22%RBNY 18%9% → 4% – 10%ConferenceSat 12 Sep · Away8:30 PM EDTSporting KC<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSKC 22%Draw 24%LAFC 54%9% → 4% – 10%ConferenceSat 19 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTSan Jose91%PlayoffsMatch resultSJ 34%Draw 27%LAFC 39%9% → 5% – 12%ConferenceSat 26 Sep · Away8:30 PM EDTDallas93%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 39%Draw 27%LAFC 34%9% → 5% – 12%ConferenceSat 10 Oct · Home10:30 PM EDTVancouver>99%PlayoffsMatch resultLAFC 41%Draw 27%VAN 32%9% → 2% – 14%ConferenceWed 14 Oct · Home10:30 PM EDTAustin1%PlayoffsMatch resultLAFC 62%Draw 21%ATX 17%9% → 5% – 12%ConferenceSun 25 Oct · Home9:00 PM EDTLA Galaxy9%PlayoffsMatch resultLAFC 60%Draw 22%LA 18%9% → 6% – 13%ConferenceSun 1 Nov · Home4:30 PM ESTMinnesota43%PlayoffsMatch resultLAFC 53%Draw 24%MIN 23%9% → 6% – 14%ConferenceWed 4 Nov · Away7:30 PM ESTNY City82%PlayoffsMatch resultNYC 37%Draw 27%LAFC 36%9% → 8% – 17%ConferenceSat 7 Nov · Away7:00 PM ESTSeattle64%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 37%Draw 27%LAFC 36%9% → 10% – 18%Conference

History

Final · Home15 AugSan Diego1LAFC±00>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away1 AugVancouver1LAFC±01>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home25 JulSporting KC0LAFC▼ -24>99% → 98%Playoffs
All results20 played
Final · Home15 AugSan Diego1LAFC±00>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away1 AugVancouver1LAFC±01>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home25 JulSporting KC0LAFC▼ -24>99% → 98%PlayoffsFinal · Home22 JulSalt Lake1LAFC±0398% → 98%PlayoffsFinal · Away17 JulLA Galaxy0LAFC3Final · Home24 MaySeattle0LAFC1Final · Away17 MayNashville3LAFC2Final · Away13 MaySt. Louis2LAFC1Final · Home10 MayHouston4LAFC1Final · Away2 MaySan Diego2LAFC2Final · Away25 AprMinnesota0LAFC1Final · Home22 AprColorado0LAFC0Final · Home19 AprSan Jose4LAFC1Final · Away11 AprPortland2LAFC1Final · Home4 AprOrlando0LAFC6Final · Away21 MarAustin0LAFC0Final · Home14 MarSt. Louis0LAFC2Final · Home7 MarDallas0LAFC1Final · Away28 FebHouston0LAFC2Final · Home21 FebMiami0LAFC3

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-02-232026-08-20

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home78%

LAFC 53+ points

Round One
2LAFCHome7Houston

Alongside it: 1 Vancouver v Wild Card winner · 3 San Jose v 6 San Diego · 4 Dallas v 5 St. Louis

  1. 87% of this route

  2. 13% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 13,659. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Vancouver66
2LAFC59
3San Jose52
4Dallas52
5St. Louis52
6San Diego51
7Houston50
8Salt Lake48
9Colorado47
-Seattle45
-Minnesota44
Reach Round One directly, on the road18%

LAFC 49+ points

Round One
4Salt LakeHome5LAFC

Alongside it: 1 Vancouver v Wild Card winner · 2 Houston v 7 San Jose · 3 Dallas v 6 San Diego

  1. 68% of this route

  2. 32% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,434. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Vancouver73
2Houston57
3Dallas57
4Salt Lake53
5LAFC52
6San Diego47
7San Jose46
8St. Louis45
9Portland43
-Seattle43
-LA Galaxy41
Host the Wild Card game2%
Play the Wild Card game away1%
Miss the postseason1%

A possible long-shot route: 179 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

LAFC under 48 points

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 179. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Vancouver69
2Houston59
3San Jose58
4St. Louis53
5Salt Lake51
6Minnesota50
7Seattle49
8San Diego49
9Dallas49
-LAFC45
-Colorado41