Magic Number - Austin 2026

Playoffs15%

Elimination number

The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.

6

Lose the next 6 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Could be eliminated as soon as Sat 24 Oct.

Next upSaturday · Home8:30 PM EDTAustin15%PlayoffsNashvilleClinchedPlayoffsMatch resultATX 28%Draw 26%NSH 46%Win → 27% · Draw → 16% · Loss → 8%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Home26 SepSan Diego3Austin▼ -7322% → 15%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%

Supporters' ShieldOut

MLS Cup<1%

13th in the table · 23th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 14th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Home8:30 PM EDTAustin15%PlayoffsNashvilleClinchedPlayoffsMatch resultATX 28%Draw 26%NSH 46%Win → 27% · Draw → 16% · Loss → 8%Playoffs

Upcoming

Wednesday · Away10:30 PM EDTLAFC98%PlayoffsMatch resultLAFC 53%Draw 24%ATX 23%15% → 9% – 30%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTVancouver>99%PlayoffsMatch resultATX 34%Draw 27%VAN 39%15% → 9% – 27%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTSporting KC<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSKC 32%Draw 27%ATX 41%15% → 7% – 26%Playoffs

Full schedule7 to play

Saturday · Home8:30 PM EDTNashvilleClinchedPlayoffsMatch resultATX 28%Draw 26%NSH 46%15% → 8% – 27%Playoffs Wednesday · Away10:30 PM EDTLAFC98%PlayoffsMatch resultLAFC 53%Draw 24%ATX 23%15% → 9% – 30%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTVancouver>99%PlayoffsMatch resultATX 34%Draw 27%VAN 39%15% → 9% – 27%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTSporting KC<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSKC 32%Draw 27%ATX 41%15% → 7% – 26%Playoffs Wed 28 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTSalt Lake19%PlayoffsMatch resultATX 49%Draw 25%RSL 26%15% → 6% – 25%Playoffs Sat 31 Oct · Away5:00 PM EDTLA Galaxy53%PlayoffsMatch resultLA 46%Draw 26%ATX 28%15% → 7% – 34%Playoffs Sat 7 Nov · Home7:00 PM ESTPortland24%PlayoffsMatch resultATX 46%Draw 26%POR 28%15% → 4% – 23%Playoffs

History

Final · Home26 SepSan Diego3Austin▼ -7322% → 15%Playoffs Final · Away19 SepDallas0Austin▲ +8016% → 24%Playoffs Final · Away13 SepVancouver1Austin▲ +1026% → 16%Playoffs

All results27 played

Final · Home26 SepSan Diego3Austin▼ -7322% → 15%Playoffs Final · Away19 SepDallas0Austin▲ +8016% → 24%Playoffs Final · Away13 SepVancouver1Austin▲ +1026% → 16%Playoffs Final · Home9 SepColorado1Austin▼ -216% → 4%Playoffs Final · Home5 SepSan Jose1Austin▼ -117% → 6%Playoffs Final · Away29 AugPortland1Austin±022% → 2%Playoffs Final · Home22 AugPhiladelphia1Austin±014% → 4%Playoffs Final · Away19 AugSeattle1Austin±021% → 1%Playoffs Final · Home16 AugDallas2Austin±013% → 3%Playoffs Final · Away1 AugColorado1Austin±006% → 6%Playoffs Final · Away25 JulHouston3Austin▲ +605% → 11%Playoffs Final · Home22 JulSeattle1Austin±035% → 5%Playoffs Final · Away23 MaySt. Louis3Austin0 Final · Home16 MaySporting KC2Austin1 Final · Away13 MaySan Diego5Austin0 Final · Away10 MayMinnesota2Austin2 Final · Home3 MaySt. Louis0Austin2 Final · Home25 AprHouston0Austin2 Final · Away22 AprSan Jose5Austin1 Final · Away18 AprToronto3Austin3 Final · Home11 AprLA Galaxy2Austin1 Final · Away4 AprMiami2Austin2 Final · Home21 MarLAFC0Austin0 Final · Away14 MarSalt Lake2Austin1 Final · Away7 MarCharlotte3Austin1 Final · Home1 MarDC0Austin1 Final · Home21 FebMinnesota2Austin2

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home<1%

A possible long-shot route: 2 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Austin 50+ points

Reach Round One directly, on the road2%

Austin 45+ points

Round One

2St. LouisHome7Austin

Alongside it: 1 Dallas v Wild Card winner · 3 San Jose v 6 Seattle · 4 Vancouver v 5 Houston

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 465. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Dallas	60
2	St. Louis	57
3	San Jose	57
4	Vancouver	55
5	Houston	55
6	Seattle	51
7	Austin	47
8	Colorado	43
9	Portland	43
-	Salt Lake	43
-	LAFC	43
-	LA Galaxy	42

Host the Wild Card game5%

Austin 44+ points

Wild Card

8AustinHome9Salt Lake

82% of this route
- above ColoradoColorado 1+ point back (>99%)
18% of this route
- above LA GalaxyLA Galaxy 1+ point back (96%)
- below ColoradoColorado under 51 points (93%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 777. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Dallas	63
2	Vancouver	58
3	St. Louis	58
4	Houston	55
5	San Jose	52
6	LAFC	50
7	Seattle	48
8	Austin	46
9	Salt Lake	43
-	LA Galaxy	42
-	Colorado	42

Play the Wild Card game away8%

Austin 43+ points

Wild Card

8ColoradoHome9Austin

83% of this route
- above San DiegoSan Diego out of the postseason (>99%) · San Diego 1+ point back (>99%)
17% of this route
- below San DiegoSan Diego under 50 points (91%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,389. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	St. Louis	63
2	Houston	58
3	Dallas	57
4	San Jose	56
5	Vancouver	54
6	LAFC	48
7	Seattle	45
8	Colorado	44
9	Austin	44
-	LA Galaxy	41
-	Portland	40
-	San Diego	40

Miss the postseason85%

Austin under 45 points

75% of this route
- below San DiegoSan Diego under 48 points (94%)
25% of this route
- above San DiegoSan Diego 1+ point back (>99%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 12,622. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Dallas	62
2	St. Louis	57
3	San Jose	56
4	Vancouver	55
5	Houston	53
6	LAFC	51
7	Seattle	47
8	Colorado	46
9	Portland	44
-	LA Galaxy	44
-	San Diego	43
-	Austin	39