Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
5th by playoff odds32 clubs

Buffalo

1st · 3-0-1
Playoffs70%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
12

Win the next 12 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Next upMonday · Away8:15 PM EDTBuffalo70%PlayoffsRams49%PlayoffsMatch resultLAR 53%Tie <1%BUF 47%Win → 77% · Tie → 55% · Loss → 55%Division
Last resultFinal · Home4 OctNew England29Buffalo±02680% → 80%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division46%
Bye12%
Conference13%
Super Bowl7%

1st in the table · 5th by playoff odds.

AFC East finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 1st. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 4th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Monday · Away8:15 PM EDTBuffalo70%PlayoffsRams49%PlayoffsMatch resultLAR 53%Tie <1%BUF 47%Win → 77% · Tie → 55% · Loss → 55%Division

Upcoming

Sun 18 Oct · Away4:25 PM EDTLas Vegas46%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 44%Tie <1%BUF 56%46% → 57% – 75%DivisionSun 1 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTBaltimore61%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 63%Tie <1%BAL 37%46% → 53% – 71%DivisionMon 9 Nov · Away8:15 PM ESTMinnesota83%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 61%Tie <1%BUF 38%46% → 56% – 72%Division
Full schedule13 to play
Monday · Away8:15 PM EDTRams49%PlayoffsMatch resultLAR 53%Tie <1%BUF 47%46% → 55% – 77%DivisionSun 18 Oct · Away4:25 PM EDTLas Vegas46%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 44%Tie <1%BUF 56%46% → 57% – 75%DivisionSun 1 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTBaltimore61%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 63%Tie <1%BAL 37%46% → 53% – 71%DivisionMon 9 Nov · Away8:15 PM ESTMinnesota83%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 61%Tie <1%BUF 38%46% → 56% – 72%DivisionSun 15 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTJets16%PlayoffsMatch resultNYJ 33%Tie <1%BUF 66%46% → 50% – 68%DivisionSun 22 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTMiami9%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 78%Tie <1%MIA 22%46% → 49% – 66%DivisionThu 26 Nov · Home8:20 PM ESTKansas City80%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 58%Tie <1%KC 41%46% → 53% – 69%DivisionSun 6 Dec · Away4:25 PM ESTNew England64%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 56%Tie <1%BUF 43%46% → 52% – 81%DivisionSun 13 Dec · Away8:20 PM ESTGreen Bay38%PlayoffsMatch resultGB 48%Tie <1%BUF 52%46% → 57% – 72%DivisionSat 19 Dec · Home8:20 PM ESTChicago59%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 59%Tie <1%CHI 41%46% → 57% – 73%DivisionFri 25 Dec · Away4:30 PM ESTDenver58%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 56%Tie <1%BUF 44%46% → 60% – 76%DivisionSun 3 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTMiami9%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 34%Tie <1%BUF 66%46% → 54% – 72%DivisionSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTJets16%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 78%Tie <1%NYJ 22%70% → 72% – 88%Playoffs

History

Final · Home4 OctNew England29Buffalo±02680% → 80%PlayoffsFinal · Home27 SepChargers16Buffalo▲ +82474% → 82%PlayoffsFinal · Home17 SepDetroit31Buffalo▲ +74165% → 72%Playoffs
All results4 played
Final · Home4 OctNew England29Buffalo±02680% → 80%PlayoffsFinal · Home27 SepChargers16Buffalo▲ +82474% → 82%PlayoffsFinal · Home17 SepDetroit31Buffalo▲ +74165% → 72%PlayoffsFinal · Away13 SepHouston31Buffalo▲ +113654% → 65%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 Game on 17 Sep: 65% to 87%2026-08-032026-10-06

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye12%

Buffalo 13+ wins

Divisional Round
1BuffaloHomeWild Card Round winner4 Jacksonville or 5 Cincinnati

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,359. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Buffalo1430
2Cleveland1430
3Las Vegas1250
4Jacksonville1061
5Cincinnati1250
6Kansas City1070
7Baltimore971
-Chargers980
-Denver890
Win the division, host a Wild Card game35%

Buffalo 9.5+ wins

Wild Card Round
2BuffaloHome7Denver

Alongside it: 3 Kansas City v 6 Las Vegas · 4 Indianapolis v 5 Pittsburgh

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 6,908. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Cleveland1250
2Buffalo1151
3Kansas City1160
4Indianapolis980
5Pittsburgh1070
6Las Vegas980
7Denver980
-Cincinnati980
-Chargers980
-New England890
Wild Card berth, on the road23%

Buffalo 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
2JacksonvilleHome7Buffalo

Alongside it: 3 New England v 6 Cleveland · 4 Baltimore v 5 Indianapolis

  1. 64% of this route

  2. 23% of this route

  3. 12% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,010. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Kansas City1430
2Jacksonville1250
3New England1250
4Baltimore1250
5Indianapolis1160
6Cleveland1160
7Buffalo1061
-Denver1070
-Pittsburgh1070
Miss the postseason30%

Buffalo under 9.5 wins

  1. 66% of this route

  2. 21% of this route

  3. 13% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,990. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Kansas City1430
2Baltimore1430
3Indianapolis1070
4New England980
5Pittsburgh1160
6Denver1061
7Las Vegas1070
-Jacksonville1070
-Cincinnati890
-Buffalo7100