Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
7th by playoff odds32 clubs

Buffalo

7th by playoff odds · 0-0-0
Playoffs63%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
17

Win the next 17 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
17

Lose the next 17 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSun 13 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTBuffalo63%PlayoffsHouston76%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 63%Tie <1%BUF 37%Win → 46% · Tie → 45% · Loss → 31%Division

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division39%
Bye10%
Conference10%
Super Bowl5%

7th by playoff odds.

AFC East finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 1st. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 2nd. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game and what follows it. Nothing has been played yet.

Next up

Sun 13 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTBuffalo63%PlayoffsHouston76%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 63%Tie <1%BUF 37%Win → 46% · Tie → 45% · Loss → 31%Division

Upcoming

Thu 17 Sep · Home8:15 PM EDTDetroit54%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 65%Tie <1%DET 35%63% → 65% – 81%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTChargers57%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 61%Tie <1%LAC 38%63% → 65% – 82%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTNew England67%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 54%Tie <1%NE 46%39% → 25% – 53%Division
Full schedule17 to play
Sun 13 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTHouston76%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 63%Tie <1%BUF 37%39% → 31% – 46%DivisionThu 17 Sep · Home8:15 PM EDTDetroit54%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 65%Tie <1%DET 35%63% → 65% – 81%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTChargers57%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 61%Tie <1%LAC 38%63% → 65% – 82%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTNew England67%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 54%Tie <1%NE 46%39% → 25% – 53%DivisionMon 12 Oct · Away8:15 PM EDTRams60%PlayoffsMatch resultLAR 55%Tie <1%BUF 44%39% → 34% – 48%DivisionSun 18 Oct · Away4:25 PM EDTLas Vegas10%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 18%Tie <1%BUF 82%63% → 62% – 79%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTBaltimore48%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 71%Tie <1%BAL 29%63% → 63% – 81%PlayoffsMon 9 Nov · Away8:15 PM ESTMinnesota54%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 51%Tie <1%BUF 49%39% → 33% – 47%DivisionSun 15 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTJets13%PlayoffsMatch resultNYJ 20%Tie <1%BUF 79%63% → 62% – 78%PlayoffsSun 22 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTMiami30%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 77%Tie <1%MIA 23%63% → 59% – 77%PlayoffsThu 26 Nov · Home8:20 PM ESTKansas City24%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 80%Tie <1%KC 19%63% → 60% – 77%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Away4:25 PM ESTNew England67%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 60%Tie <1%BUF 39%39% → 31% – 57%DivisionSun 13 Dec · Away8:20 PM ESTGreen Bay43%PlayoffsMatch resultGB 45%Tie <1%BUF 54%63% → 67% – 82%PlayoffsSat 19 Dec · Home8:20 PM ESTChicago48%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 63%Tie <1%CHI 36%63% → 64% – 80%PlayoffsFri 25 Dec · Away4:30 PM ESTDenver79%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 66%Tie <1%BUF 33%39% → 31% – 47%DivisionSun 3 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTMiami30%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 34%Tie <1%BUF 65%39% → 26% – 45%DivisionSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTJets13%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 87%Tie <1%NYJ 13%63% → 62% – 76%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-08-13

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye10%

Buffalo 13+ wins

Divisional Round
1BuffaloHomeWild Card Round winner4 Jacksonville or 5 Denver

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,925. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Buffalo1520
2Chargers1430
3Pittsburgh1430
4Jacksonville1160
5Denver1160
6Cleveland1070
7Houston1070
-Tennessee980
-Las Vegas980
Win the division, host a Wild Card game29%

Buffalo 10+ wins

Wild Card Round
2BuffaloHome7Jets

Alongside it: 3 Kansas City v 6 Denver · 4 Baltimore v 5 Jacksonville

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 5,841. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Indianapolis1340
2Buffalo1250
3Kansas City1160
4Baltimore1070
5Jacksonville1340
6Denver1070
7Jets1070
-New England881
-Cleveland890
-Miami7100
Wild Card berth, on the road24%

Buffalo 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
4ChargersHome5Buffalo

Alongside it: 2 Houston v 7 Miami · 3 Pittsburgh v 6 Denver

  1. 66% of this route

  2. 20% of this route

  3. 14% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,160. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1New England1340
2Houston1340
3Pittsburgh1250
4Chargers1160
5Buffalo1160
6Denver980
7Miami890
-Jacksonville890
-Cleveland791
-Kansas City5111
Miss the postseason37%