Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
10th by playoff odds32 clubs

Chargers

10th by playoff odds · 0-0-0
Playoffs57%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
17

Win the next 17 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
17

Lose the next 17 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSun 13 Sep · Home4:25 PM EDTChargers57%PlayoffsArizona8%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 86%Tie <1%ARI 14%Win → 80% · Tie → 59% · Loss → 58%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division30%
Bye7%
Conference7%
Super Bowl3%

10th by playoff odds.

AFC West finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 2nd. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 5th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game and what follows it. Nothing has been played yet.

Next up

Sun 13 Sep · Home4:25 PM EDTChargers57%PlayoffsArizona8%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 86%Tie <1%ARI 14%Win → 80% · Tie → 59% · Loss → 58%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 20 Sep · Home4:05 PM EDTLas Vegas10%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 87%Tie <1%LV 13%57% → 58% – 79%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTBuffalo63%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 61%Tie <1%LAC 38%57% → 67% – 84%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Away4:25 PM EDTSeattle80%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 73%Tie <1%LAC 26%57% → 70% – 85%Playoffs
Full schedule17 to play
Sun 13 Sep · Home4:25 PM EDTArizona8%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 86%Tie <1%ARI 14%57% → 58% – 80%PlayoffsSun 20 Sep · Home4:05 PM EDTLas Vegas10%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 87%Tie <1%LV 13%57% → 58% – 79%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTBuffalo63%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 61%Tie <1%LAC 38%57% → 67% – 84%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Away4:25 PM EDTSeattle80%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 73%Tie <1%LAC 26%57% → 70% – 85%PlayoffsSun 11 Oct · Home4:05 PM EDTDenver79%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 42%Tie <1%DEN 57%30% → 12% – 32%DivisionSun 18 Oct · Away4:25 PM EDTKansas City24%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 34%Tie <1%LAC 66%57% → 58% – 77%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away4:05 PM ESTRams60%PlayoffsMatch resultLAR 60%Tie <1%LAC 40%57% → 63% – 80%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Home4:05 PM ESTHouston76%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 46%Tie <1%HOU 53%57% → 60% – 78%PlayoffsMon 16 Nov · Away8:15 PM ESTBaltimore48%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%Tie <1%LAC 53%57% → 59% – 79%PlayoffsSun 22 Nov · Home4:05 PM ESTJets13%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 85%Tie <1%NYJ 15%57% → 54% – 72%PlayoffsSun 29 Nov · Home8:20 PM ESTNew England67%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 49%Tie <1%NE 51%57% → 59% – 79%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTTampa Bay34%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 38%Tie <1%LAC 62%57% → 57% – 76%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Away4:05 PM ESTLas Vegas10%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 21%Tie <1%LAC 79%57% → 54% – 73%PlayoffsThu 17 Dec · Home8:15 PM EST49ers61%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 54%Tie <1%SF 46%57% → 59% – 77%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTMiami30%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 39%Tie <1%LAC 61%57% → 58% – 77%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTKansas City24%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 77%Tie <1%KC 22%57% → 53% – 75%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTDenver79%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 70%Tie <1%LAC 29%30% → 12% – 38%Division

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-08-13

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye7%

Chargers 13+ wins

Divisional Round
1ChargersHomeWild Card Round winner4 Buffalo or 5 Jacksonville

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,464. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Chargers1520
2Indianapolis1331
3Pittsburgh1250
4Buffalo1160
5Jacksonville1340
6Houston1061
7Jets1070
-Denver1070
-Cincinnati890
Win the division, host a Wild Card game22%

Chargers 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
3ChargersHome6Buffalo

Alongside it: 2 Miami v 7 New England · 4 Pittsburgh v 5 Kansas City

  1. 72% of this route

  2. 28% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,199. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Houston1601
2Miami1430
3Chargers1250
4Pittsburgh7100
5Kansas City1250
6Buffalo1151
7New England980
-Denver980
-Tennessee890
Wild Card berth, on the road27%

Chargers 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
3BuffaloHome6Chargers

Alongside it: 2 Denver v 7 Indianapolis · 4 Baltimore v 5 Houston

  1. 83% of this route

    • above MiamiMiami out of the postseason (92%) · Miami 1+ game back (97%)

  2. 17% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,505. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Jacksonville1700
2Denver1340
3Buffalo1160
4Baltimore1070
5Houston1430
6Chargers1160
7Indianapolis1160
-Pittsburgh1070
-Cleveland980
-Miami6110
Miss the postseason43%

Chargers under 10 wins

  1. 50% of this route

  2. 28% of this route

  3. 22% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,282. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Houston1340
2Buffalo1340
3Pittsburgh1160
4Denver1070
5Baltimore1070
6Kansas City980
7Miami890
-Cleveland890
-Cincinnati7100
-Chargers6110