Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
29th by playoff odds32 clubs

Tennessee

29th by playoff odds · 0-0-0
Playoffs14%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
17

Win the next 17 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
17

Lose the next 17 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTTennessee14%PlayoffsJets13%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 56%Tie <1%NYJ 44%Win → 2% · Tie → 2% · Loss → <1%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division4%
Bye1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%

29th by playoff odds.

AFC South finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 4th. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 16th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game and what follows it. Nothing has been played yet.

Next up

Sun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTTennessee14%PlayoffsJets13%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 56%Tie <1%NYJ 44%Win → 2% · Tie → 2% · Loss → <1%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 20 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTPhiladelphia65%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 22%Tie <1%PHI 77%14% → 1% – 4%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTGiants18%PlayoffsMatch resultNYG 62%Tie <1%TEN 37%14% → <1% – 2%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTBaltimore48%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 80%Tie <1%TEN 20%14% → 1% – 3%Playoffs
Full schedule17 to play
Sun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTJets13%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 56%Tie <1%NYJ 44%14% → 0% – 2%PlayoffsSun 20 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTPhiladelphia65%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 22%Tie <1%PHI 77%14% → 1% – 4%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTGiants18%PlayoffsMatch resultNYG 62%Tie <1%TEN 37%14% → <1% – 2%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTBaltimore48%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 80%Tie <1%TEN 20%14% → 1% – 3%PlayoffsSun 11 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTHouston76%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 16%Tie <1%HOU 84%14% → 1% – 4%PlayoffsSun 18 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTIndianapolis33%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 73%Tie <1%TEN 27%14% → 1% – 3%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTCleveland30%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 46%Tie <1%CLE 54%14% → 1% – 3%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTCincinnati32%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 70%Tie <1%TEN 29%14% → 1% – 3%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTJacksonville70%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 18%Tie <1%JAX 82%14% → 1% – 4%PlayoffsSun 22 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTDallas34%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 74%Tie <1%TEN 26%14% → 1% – 3%PlayoffsSun 29 Nov · Away4:05 PM ESTJacksonville70%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 89%Tie <1%TEN 11%14% → 1% – 4%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTWashington25%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 44%Tie <1%WAS 56%14% → 1% – 3%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTDetroit54%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 84%Tie <1%TEN 16%14% → 1% – 3%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTIndianapolis33%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 39%Tie <1%IND 61%14% → <1% – 2%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Away4:05 PM ESTLas Vegas10%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 54%Tie <1%TEN 46%14% → <1% – 2%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTPittsburgh57%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 25%Tie <1%PIT 75%14% → <1% – 3%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTHouston76%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 90%Tie <1%TEN 10%14% → <1% – 3%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-08-13

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye1%

A possible long-shot route: 102 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Tennessee 13+ wins

Win the division, host a Wild Card game3%

Tennessee 10+ wins

Wild Card Round
4TennesseeHome5Buffalo

Alongside it: 2 Chargers v 7 Houston · 3 New England v 6 Indianapolis

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 610. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Pittsburgh1700
2Chargers1430
3New England1340
4Tennessee1250
5Buffalo1250
6Indianapolis980
7Houston980
-Cincinnati890
-Jacksonville890
Wild Card berth, on the road10%

Tennessee 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
3PittsburghHome6Tennessee

Alongside it: 2 Denver v 7 Jets · 4 Jacksonville v 5 Baltimore

  1. 71% of this route

    • above IndianapolisIndianapolis out of the postseason (94%) · Indianapolis 1+ game back (95%)
    • above Kansas CityKansas City out of the postseason (93%) · Kansas City 1+ game back (96%)

  2. 16% of this route

  3. 13% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,442. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1New England1610
2Denver1520
3Pittsburgh1520
4Jacksonville1430
5Baltimore1151
6Tennessee1061
7Jets1070
-Buffalo890
-Houston890
-Kansas City6110
-Indianapolis5111
Miss the postseason86%

  1. 63% of this route

  2. 22% of this route

  3. 15% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 10,886. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Denver1511
2Buffalo1430
3Pittsburgh1160
4Jacksonville980
5Chargers1421
6New England1340
7Cincinnati1070
-Cleveland980
-Indianapolis980
-Miami890
-Tennessee3131