Atlanta 12+ wins
Divisional Round
1AtlantaHomeWild Card Round winner4 Green Bay or 5 49ers
Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner
NFL · 2026
12th by playoff odds32 clubs
Atlanta
2nd · 2-0-2Atlanta Falcons saved.Your home page now opens on it — its chances, how far it has moved, and its next game. Saved in this browser only.Continue with Google
Playoffs51%
Magic number
13
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
Win the next 13 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.
Elimination number
13
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
Lose the next 13 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.
Chances
The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.
2nd in the table · 12th by playoff odds.
NFC South finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner
Most likely 1st. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.
NFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th
Most likely 4th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.
Schedule
The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.
Upcoming
Sun 18 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTChicago59%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 50%Tie <1%CHI 50%51% → 43% – 64%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDT49ers80%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 42%Tie <1%SF 57%51% → 44% – 64%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTTampa Bay9%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 39%Tie <1%ATL 60%51% → 39% – 60%Playoffs
Full schedule13 to play
Sunday · Home8:20 PM EDTBaltimore61%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 54%Tie <1%BAL 46%51% → 44% – 61%PlayoffsSun 18 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTChicago59%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 50%Tie <1%CHI 50%51% → 43% – 64%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDT49ers80%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 42%Tie <1%SF 57%51% → 44% – 64%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTTampa Bay9%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 39%Tie <1%ATL 60%51% → 39% – 60%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Home9:30 AM ESTCincinnati38%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 55%Tie <1%CIN 45%51% → 41% – 62%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTKansas City80%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 49%Tie <1%KC 50%51% → 44% – 64%PlayoffsSun 29 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTMinnesota83%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 70%Tie <1%ATL 30%51% → 45% – 64%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTDetroit39%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 57%Tie <1%DET 43%51% → 39% – 59%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTCleveland63%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 58%Tie <1%ATL 41%51% → 45% – 64%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTWashington18%PlayoffsMatch resultWAS 46%Tie <1%ATL 53%51% → 43% – 62%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTTampa Bay9%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 73%Tie <1%TB 27%51% → 39% – 59%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTNew Orleans21%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 67%Tie <1%NO 32%51% → 40% – 63%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTCarolina47%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 54%Tie <1%ATL 45%40% → 35% – 62%Division
Season so far
Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.
Paths
Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.
Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it
Win the division with a first-round bye4%
Win the division, host a Wild Card game36%
Atlanta 8+ wins
Wild Card Round
3AtlantaHome6New Orleans
Alongside it: 2 Minnesota v 7 Chicago · 4 Giants v 5 Rams
83% of this route
- above ChicagoChicago under 12.5 wins (94%)
17% of this route
- below ChicagoChicago under 15.5 wins (96%)
How the table finishedthe middle season
Wild Card berth, on the road11%
Atlanta 9+ wins
Wild Card Round
3WashingtonHome6Atlanta
Alongside it: 2 Detroit v 7 Philadelphia · 4 Carolina v 5 Seattle
61% of this route
- below CarolinaCarolina under 13.5 wins (91%)
- above Green BayGreen Bay under 10.5 wins (96%)
25% of this route
- above CarolinaCarolina out of the postseason (95%) · Carolina 1+ game back (95%)
14% of this route
- below CarolinaCarolina under 14.5 wins (98%)
- below Green BayGreen Bay under 13.5 wins (90%)
How the table finishedthe middle season
| Seed | Club | W | L | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49ers | 15 | 2 | 0 |
| 2 | Detroit | 13 | 4 | 0 |
| 3 | Washington | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| 4 | Carolina | 11 | 5 | 1 |
| 5 | Seattle | 13 | 4 | 0 |
| 6 | Atlanta | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| 7 | Philadelphia | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| - | New Orleans | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| - | Chicago | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| - | Green Bay | 7 | 9 | 1 |
Miss the postseason49%
Atlanta under 9.5 wins
85% of this route
- below CarolinaCarolina under 13 wins (90%)
15% of this route
- above CarolinaCarolina 1+ game back (97%)