Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
20th by playoff odds32 clubs

Detroit

3rd · 2-0-2
Playoffs39%
Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
13

Lose the next 13 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSunday · Away4:25 PM EDTDetroit39%PlayoffsArizona10%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 43%Tie <1%DET 57%Win → 30% · Tie → 27% · Loss → 19%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Away4 OctCarolina32Detroit±02652% → 52%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division13%
Bye3%
Conference3%
Super Bowl1%

3rd in the table · 20th by playoff odds.

NFC North finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 4th. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

NFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 7th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Sunday · Away4:25 PM EDTDetroit39%PlayoffsArizona10%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 43%Tie <1%DET 57%Win → 30% · Tie → 27% · Loss → 19%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 25 Oct · Home4:25 PM EDTGreen Bay38%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 57%Tie <1%GB 43%39% → 17% – 33%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTMinnesota83%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 43%Tie <1%MIN 56%39% → 20% – 35%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTMiami9%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 42%Tie <1%DET 57%39% → 18% – 32%Playoffs
Full schedule13 to play
Sunday · Away4:25 PM EDTArizona10%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 43%Tie <1%DET 57%39% → 19% – 30%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Home4:25 PM EDTGreen Bay38%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 57%Tie <1%GB 43%39% → 17% – 33%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTMinnesota83%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 43%Tie <1%MIN 56%39% → 20% – 35%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTMiami9%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 42%Tie <1%DET 57%39% → 18% – 32%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Home9:30 AM ESTNew England64%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 41%Tie <1%NE 58%39% → 20% – 37%PlayoffsSun 22 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTTampa Bay9%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 73%Tie <1%TB 27%39% → 17% – 32%PlayoffsThu 26 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTChicago59%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 50%Tie <1%CHI 50%39% → 20% – 41%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTAtlanta51%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 57%Tie <1%DET 43%39% → 22% – 42%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTTennessee6%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 76%Tie <1%TEN 23%39% → 17% – 34%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Away8:20 PM ESTMinnesota83%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 70%Tie <1%DET 30%39% → 23% – 45%PlayoffsMon 28 Dec · Home8:15 PM ESTGiants47%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 60%Tie <1%NYG 39%39% → 16% – 37%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Away4:25 PM ESTChicago59%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 64%Tie <1%DET 36%39% → 18% – 42%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTGreen Bay38%PlayoffsMatch resultGB 57%Tie <1%DET 43%39% → 13% – 36%Playoffs

History

Final · Away4 OctCarolina32Detroit±02652% → 52%PlayoffsFinal · Home27 SepJets24Detroit▲ +83148% → 56%PlayoffsFinal · Away17 SepBuffalo41Detroit▼ -63154% → 48%Playoffs
All results4 played
Final · Away4 OctCarolina32Detroit±02652% → 52%PlayoffsFinal · Home27 SepJets24Detroit▲ +83148% → 56%PlayoffsFinal · Away17 SepBuffalo41Detroit▼ -63154% → 48%PlayoffsFinal · Home13 SepNew Orleans30Detroit▲ +113148% → 59%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-10-06

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye3%

Detroit 12+ wins

Divisional Round
1DetroitHomeWild Card Round winner4 Giants or 5 Seattle

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 659. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Detroit1331
2Atlanta1250
349ers1160
4Giants1070
5Seattle1160
6Rams1160
7Minnesota1061
-Green Bay1070
-Philadelphia1070
Win the division, host a Wild Card game10%

Detroit 10+ wins

Wild Card Round
2DetroitHome7Washington

Alongside it: 3 New Orleans v 6 Rams · 4 Philadelphia v 5 49ers

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,949. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Seattle1430
2Detroit1250
3New Orleans1070
4Philadelphia980
549ers1340
6Rams1340
7Washington980
-Carolina980
-Chicago980
-Minnesota980
Wild Card berth, on the road26%

Detroit 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
4AtlantaHome5Detroit

Alongside it: 2 Philadelphia v 7 Carolina · 3 Seattle v 6 Minnesota

  1. 54% of this route

  2. 28% of this route

  3. 18% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,788. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Chicago1430
2Philadelphia1340
3Seattle1250
4Atlanta1160
5Detroit1160
6Minnesota1160
7Carolina1070
-Washington980
-Rams890
-Green Bay7100
Miss the postseason61%