Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
23th by playoff odds32 clubs

Carolina

23th by playoff odds · 0-0-0
Playoffs32%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
17

Win the next 17 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
17

Lose the next 17 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTCarolina32%PlayoffsChicago48%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 41%Tie <1%CHI 59%Win → 21% · Tie → 16% · Loss → 9%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division21%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%

23th by playoff odds.

NFC South finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 4th. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

NFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 15th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game and what follows it. Nothing has been played yet.

Next up

Sun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTCarolina32%PlayoffsChicago48%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 41%Tie <1%CHI 59%Win → 21% · Tie → 16% · Loss → 9%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 20 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTAtlanta48%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 63%Tie <1%CAR 36%32% → 10% – 26%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTCleveland30%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 49%Tie <1%CAR 51%32% → 10% – 20%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Home8:20 PM EDTDetroit54%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 43%Tie <1%DET 57%32% → 10% – 21%Playoffs
Full schedule17 to play
Sun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTChicago48%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 41%Tie <1%CHI 59%32% → 9% – 21%PlayoffsSun 20 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTAtlanta48%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 63%Tie <1%CAR 36%32% → 10% – 26%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTCleveland30%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 49%Tie <1%CAR 51%32% → 10% – 20%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Home8:20 PM EDTDetroit54%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 43%Tie <1%DET 57%32% → 10% – 21%PlayoffsSun 18 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTPhiladelphia65%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 74%Tie <1%CAR 26%32% → 12% – 23%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTTampa Bay34%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 58%Tie <1%TB 42%32% → 9% – 21%PlayoffsThu 29 Oct · Away8:15 PM EDTGreen Bay43%PlayoffsMatch resultGB 68%Tie <1%CAR 32%32% → 13% – 25%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTDenver79%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 26%Tie <1%DEN 74%32% → 15% – 27%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTNew Orleans36%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 54%Tie <1%CAR 46%32% → 11% – 25%PlayoffsSun 22 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTBaltimore48%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 49%Tie <1%BAL 51%32% → 13% – 23%PlayoffsMon 30 Nov · Away8:15 PM ESTTampa Bay34%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 56%Tie <1%CAR 44%32% → 11% – 25%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Away4:25 PM ESTMinnesota54%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 72%Tie <1%CAR 28%32% → 14% – 26%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTNew Orleans36%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 60%Tie <1%NO 40%32% → 11% – 23%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTCincinnati32%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 61%Tie <1%CIN 38%32% → 10% – 20%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTPittsburgh57%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 71%Tie <1%CAR 29%32% → 14% – 24%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTSeattle80%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 23%Tie <1%SEA 76%32% → 13% – 24%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTAtlanta48%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 50%Tie <1%ATL 49%32% → 7% – 24%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-08-13

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye2%

Carolina 13+ wins

Divisional Round
1CarolinaHomeWild Card Round winner4 Washington or 5 Seattle

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 494. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Carolina1520
2Minnesota1340
3Rams1340
4Washington1160
5Seattle1160
6Chicago980
7Philadelphia980
-Green Bay890
-New Orleans890
Win the division, host a Wild Card game18%

Carolina 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
3CarolinaHome649ers

Alongside it: 2 Chicago v 7 Dallas · 4 Giants v 5 Rams

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,627. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Seattle1430
2Chicago1151
3Carolina1160
4Giants980
5Rams1430
649ers1250
7Dallas980
-Green Bay881
-Detroit890
-Atlanta7100
-New Orleans7100
Wild Card berth, on the road11%

Carolina 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
2New OrleansHome7Carolina

Alongside it: 3 Minnesota v 6 Atlanta · 4 Philadelphia v 5 Rams

  1. 46% of this route

  2. 31% of this route

  3. 23% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,018. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Seattle1430
2New Orleans1250
3Minnesota1160
4Philadelphia1070
5Rams1160
6Atlanta1061
7Carolina1061
-Tampa Bay791
-Giants7100
-Chicago6110
-Green Bay6110
Miss the postseason68%

Carolina under 9.5 wins

  1. 65% of this route

  2. 19% of this route

  3. 16% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 8,829. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Seattle1520
2Green Bay1340
3Washington1160
4Atlanta1070
549ers1250
6Detroit1250
7Rams1070
-New Orleans971
-Philadelphia980
-Carolina5120