A possible long-shot route: 24 of 20,000 simulations reached it.
Arizona 12+ wins
NFL · 2026
29th by playoff odds32 clubs
Arizona
4th · 1-0-3Arizona Cardinals saved.Your home page now opens on it — its chances, how far it has moved, and its next game. Saved in this browser only.Continue with Google
Playoffs10%
Elimination number
12
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
Lose the next 12 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.
Chances
The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.
4th in the table · 29th by playoff odds.
NFC West finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner
Most likely 4th. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.
NFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th
Most likely 16th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.
Schedule
The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.
Upcoming
Sun 18 Oct · Away4:05 PM EDTRams49%PlayoffsMatch resultLAR 74%Tie <1%ARI 25%10% → 1% – 5%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Home4:05 PM EDTDenver58%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 35%Tie <1%DEN 65%10% → 1% – 4%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTDallas37%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 67%Tie <1%ARI 33%10% → 1% – 4%Playoffs
Full schedule13 to play
Sunday · Home4:25 PM EDTDetroit39%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 43%Tie <1%DET 57%10% → 1% – 5%PlayoffsSun 18 Oct · Away4:05 PM EDTRams49%PlayoffsMatch resultLAR 74%Tie <1%ARI 25%10% → 1% – 5%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Home4:05 PM EDTDenver58%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 35%Tie <1%DEN 65%10% → 1% – 4%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTDallas37%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 67%Tie <1%ARI 33%10% → 1% – 4%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Away4:25 PM ESTSeattle66%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 80%Tie <1%ARI 20%10% → 2% – 5%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Home4:05 PM ESTRams49%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 38%Tie <1%LAR 62%10% → 1% – 5%PlayoffsSun 22 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTKansas City80%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 76%Tie <1%ARI 23%10% → 2% – 5%PlayoffsSun 29 Nov · Home4:25 PM ESTWashington18%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 53%Tie <1%WAS 46%10% → 1% – 3%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Home4:05 PM ESTPhiladelphia44%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 42%Tie <1%PHI 58%10% → 1% – 3%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Home4:05 PM ESTJets16%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 58%Tie <1%NYJ 42%10% → 1% – 3%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTNew Orleans21%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 60%Tie <1%ARI 40%10% → 2% – 5%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Home4:05 PM ESTLas Vegas46%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 47%Tie <1%LV 53%10% → 1% – 3%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM EST49ers80%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 29%Tie <1%SF 71%10% → 2% – 4%Playoffs
Season so far
Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.
Paths
Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.
Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it
Win the division with a first-round bye<1%
Win the division, host a Wild Card game1%
Arizona 10+ wins
Wild Card Round
2ArizonaHome7Carolina
Alongside it: 3 Atlanta v 6 49ers · 4 Philadelphia v 5 Chicago
How the table finishedthe middle season
Wild Card berth, on the road9%
Arizona 9+ wins
Wild Card Round
2MinnesotaHome7Arizona
Alongside it: 3 Philadelphia v 6 Seattle · 4 Carolina v 5 Green Bay
65% of this route
- above RamsRams out of the postseason (92%) · Rams 1+ game back (94%)
- above DetroitDetroit 1+ game back (90%)
21% of this route
- below RamsRams under 13.5 wins (91%)
14% of this route
- above RamsRams out of the postseason (92%) · Rams 0.5+ games back (91%)
- below DetroitDetroit under 13.5 wins (92%)
How the table finishedthe middle season
| Seed | Club | W | L | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49ers | 14 | 3 | 0 |
| 2 | Minnesota | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| 3 | Philadelphia | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| 4 | Carolina | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| 5 | Green Bay | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| 6 | Seattle | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| 7 | Arizona | 10 | 6 | 1 |
| - | Chicago | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| - | Washington | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| - | Detroit | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| - | Rams | 7 | 10 | 0 |
Miss the postseason90%
Arizona under 8.5 wins
How the table finishedthe middle season
| Seed | Club | W | L | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philadelphia | 11 | 6 | 0 |
| 2 | Seattle | 11 | 6 | 0 |
| 3 | Green Bay | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| 4 | Tampa Bay | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| 5 | 49ers | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| 6 | Detroit | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| 7 | Minnesota | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| - | Rams | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| - | New Orleans | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| - | Arizona | 5 | 11 | 1 |