A possible long-shot route: 98 of 20,000 simulations reached it.
Washington 12+ wins
NFL · 2026
25th by playoff odds32 clubs
Washington
4th · 1-0-3Washington Commanders saved.Your home page now opens on it — its chances, how far it has moved, and its next game. Saved in this browser only.Continue with Google
Playoffs18%
Elimination number
12
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
Lose the next 12 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.
Chances
The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.
4th in the table · 25th by playoff odds.
NFC East finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner
Most likely 4th. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.
NFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th
Most likely 15th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.
Schedule
The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.
Upcoming
Mon 19 Oct · Away8:15 PM EDT49ers80%PlayoffsMatch resultSF 79%Tie <1%WAS 21%18% → 4% – 12%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Home8:20 PM ESTPhiladelphia44%PlayoffsMatch resultWAS 46%Tie <1%PHI 54%18% → 3% – 10%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTRams49%PlayoffsMatch resultWAS 41%Tie <1%LAR 58%18% → 4% – 11%Playoffs
Full schedule13 to play
Sunday · Home1:00 PM EDTGiants47%PlayoffsMatch resultWAS 50%Tie <1%NYG 50%18% → 1% – 11%PlayoffsMon 19 Oct · Away8:15 PM EDT49ers80%PlayoffsMatch resultSF 79%Tie <1%WAS 21%18% → 4% – 12%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Home8:20 PM ESTPhiladelphia44%PlayoffsMatch resultWAS 46%Tie <1%PHI 54%18% → 3% – 10%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTRams49%PlayoffsMatch resultWAS 41%Tie <1%LAR 58%18% → 4% – 11%PlayoffsThu 12 Nov · Away8:15 PM ESTGiants47%PlayoffsMatch resultNYG 64%Tie <1%WAS 36%18% → 3% – 12%PlayoffsMon 23 Nov · Home8:15 PM ESTCincinnati38%PlayoffsMatch resultWAS 51%Tie <1%CIN 49%18% → 2% – 8%PlayoffsSun 29 Nov · Away4:25 PM ESTArizona10%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 53%Tie <1%WAS 46%18% → 3% – 8%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTTennessee6%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 45%Tie <1%WAS 55%18% → 2% – 7%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTHouston12%PlayoffsMatch resultWAS 56%Tie <1%HOU 44%18% → 2% – 8%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTAtlanta51%PlayoffsMatch resultWAS 46%Tie <1%ATL 53%18% → 4% – 10%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTMinnesota83%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 78%Tie <1%WAS 22%18% → 4% – 11%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTJacksonville81%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 76%Tie <1%WAS 23%18% → 5% – 12%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTDallas37%PlayoffsMatch resultWAS 50%Tie <1%DAL 49%18% → 4% – 10%Playoffs
Season so far
Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.
Paths
Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.
Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it
Win the division with a first-round bye<1%
Win the division, host a Wild Card game9%
Washington 9+ wins
Wild Card Round
4WashingtonHome5Rams
Alongside it: 2 49ers v 7 Minnesota · 3 Chicago v 6 Atlanta
How the table finishedthe middle season
| Seed | Club | W | L | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| 2 | 49ers | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| 3 | Chicago | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| 4 | Washington | 11 | 6 | 0 |
| 5 | Rams | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| 6 | Atlanta | 11 | 6 | 0 |
| 7 | Minnesota | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| - | Detroit | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| - | Seattle | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| - | Philadelphia | 7 | 9 | 1 |
| - | Giants | 7 | 10 | 0 |
Wild Card berth, on the road9%
Washington 9+ wins
Wild Card Round
4CarolinaHome5Washington
Alongside it: 2 Dallas v 7 Seattle · 3 49ers v 6 Philadelphia
55% of this route
- above RamsRams under 10.5 wins (96%)
- above Green BayGreen Bay under 10.5 wins (96%)
26% of this route
- below RamsRams under 14 wins (90%)
19% of this route
- above RamsRams out of the postseason (92%) · Rams under 10.5 wins (98%)
- below Green BayGreen Bay under 14.5 wins (98%)
How the table finishedthe middle season
| Seed | Club | W | L | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota | 15 | 2 | 0 |
| 2 | Dallas | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| 3 | 49ers | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| 4 | Carolina | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| 5 | Washington | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| 6 | Philadelphia | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| 7 | Seattle | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| - | Chicago | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| - | Giants | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| - | Rams | 7 | 9 | 1 |
| - | Green Bay | 7 | 10 | 0 |
Miss the postseason82%
Washington under 9.5 wins
87% of this route
- below RamsRams under 13.5 wins (94%)
13% of this route
- above RamsRams 1+ game back (97%)
How the table finishedthe middle season
| Seed | Club | W | L | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlanta | 14 | 3 | 0 |
| 2 | Seattle | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| 3 | Dallas | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| 4 | Green Bay | 11 | 6 | 0 |
| 5 | Philadelphia | 11 | 6 | 0 |
| 6 | Carolina | 11 | 6 | 0 |
| 7 | Rams | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| - | Giants | 9 | 7 | 1 |
| - | Chicago | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| - | Washington | 5 | 11 | 1 |