Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
31th by playoff odds32 clubs

Tampa Bay

4th · 0-0-4
Playoffs9%
Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
11

Lose the next 11 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upTonight · Away · Their biggest game left8:15 PM EDTTampa Bay9%PlayoffsDallas37%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 70%Tie <1%TB 30%Win → 2% · Tie → 2% · Loss → 1%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Home4 OctGreen Bay17Tampa Bay±01418% → 18%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division7%
Bye<1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%

4th in the table · 31th by playoff odds.

NFC South finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 4th. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

NFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 16th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Tonight · Away · Their biggest game left8:15 PM EDTTampa Bay9%PlayoffsDallas37%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 70%Tie <1%TB 30%Win → 2% · Tie → 2% · Loss → 1%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 18 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTPittsburgh46%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 38%Tie <1%PIT 61%9% → <1% – <1%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTCarolina47%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 71%Tie <1%TB 29%9% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTAtlanta51%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 39%Tie <1%ATL 60%9% → <1% – 1%Playoffs
Full schedule13 to play
Tonight · Away8:15 PM EDTDallas37%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 70%Tie <1%TB 30%9% → 1% – 2%PlayoffsSun 18 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTPittsburgh46%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 38%Tie <1%PIT 61%9% → <1% – <1%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTCarolina47%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 71%Tie <1%TB 29%9% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTAtlanta51%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 39%Tie <1%ATL 60%9% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Away8:20 PM ESTChicago59%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 78%Tie <1%TB 21%9% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 22 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTDetroit39%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 73%Tie <1%TB 27%9% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsMon 30 Nov · Home8:15 PM ESTCarolina47%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 42%Tie <1%CAR 58%9% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTChargers11%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 49%Tie <1%LAC 50%9% → <1% – <1%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTBaltimore61%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 75%Tie <1%TB 24%9% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTNew Orleans21%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 50%Tie <1%NO 49%9% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTAtlanta51%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 73%Tie <1%TB 27%9% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTRams49%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 35%Tie <1%LAR 65%9% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTNew Orleans21%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 63%Tie <1%TB 36%9% → 0% – <1%Playoffs

History

Final · Home4 OctGreen Bay17Tampa Bay±01418% → 18%PlayoffsFinal · Home27 SepMinnesota23Tampa Bay±01622% → 22%PlayoffsFinal · Home20 SepCleveland23Tampa Bay▼ -121935% → 23%Playoffs
All results4 played
Final · Home4 OctGreen Bay17Tampa Bay±01418% → 18%PlayoffsFinal · Home27 SepMinnesota23Tampa Bay±01622% → 22%PlayoffsFinal · Home20 SepCleveland23Tampa Bay▼ -121935% → 23%PlayoffsFinal · Away13 SepCincinnati33Tampa Bay▼ -32740% → 37%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-10-06

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye<1%

A possible long-shot route: 18 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Tampa Bay 12+ wins

Win the division, host a Wild Card game7%

Tampa Bay 8+ wins

Wild Card Round
3Tampa BayHome6Detroit

Alongside it: 2 Minnesota v 7 Washington · 4 Philadelphia v 5 Green Bay

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,371. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
149ers1700
2Minnesota1340
3Tampa Bay980
4Philadelphia980
5Green Bay1250
6Detroit1070
7Washington890
-Seattle890
-Dallas7100
-Atlanta6101
-Carolina6101
Wild Card berth, on the road2%

Tampa Bay 8+ wins

Wild Card Round
2CarolinaHome7Tampa Bay

Alongside it: 3 Seattle v 6 49ers · 4 Philadelphia v 5 Minnesota

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 391. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Chicago1340
2Carolina1340
3Seattle1250
4Philadelphia1070
5Minnesota1250
649ers1160
7Tampa Bay980
-Washington980
-Detroit890
-Arizona6110
Miss the postseason91%