Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
20th by playoff odds32 clubs

Tampa Bay

20th by playoff odds · 0-0-0
Playoffs34%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
17

Win the next 17 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
17

Lose the next 17 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSun 13 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTTampa Bay34%PlayoffsCincinnati32%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 54%Tie <1%TB 46%Win → 38% · Tie → 23% · Loss → 23%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division22%
Bye3%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%

20th by playoff odds.

NFC South finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 4th. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

NFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 4th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game and what follows it. Nothing has been played yet.

Next up

Sun 13 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTTampa Bay34%PlayoffsCincinnati32%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 54%Tie <1%TB 46%Win → 38% · Tie → 23% · Loss → 23%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 20 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTCleveland30%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 64%Tie <1%CLE 36%34% → 22% – 36%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Home4:05 PM EDTMinnesota54%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 40%Tie <1%MIN 60%34% → 24% – 41%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTGreen Bay43%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 45%Tie <1%GB 55%34% → 24% – 40%Playoffs
Full schedule17 to play
Sun 13 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTCincinnati32%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 54%Tie <1%TB 46%34% → 23% – 38%PlayoffsSun 20 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTCleveland30%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 64%Tie <1%CLE 36%34% → 22% – 36%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Home4:05 PM EDTMinnesota54%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 40%Tie <1%MIN 60%34% → 24% – 41%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTGreen Bay43%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 45%Tie <1%GB 55%34% → 24% – 40%PlayoffsThu 8 Oct · Away8:15 PM EDTDallas34%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 58%Tie <1%TB 42%34% → 24% – 42%PlayoffsSun 18 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTPittsburgh57%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 41%Tie <1%PIT 59%34% → 23% – 41%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTCarolina32%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 58%Tie <1%TB 42%34% → 20% – 37%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTAtlanta48%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 49%Tie <1%ATL 50%34% → 18% – 36%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Away8:20 PM ESTChicago48%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 72%Tie <1%TB 27%34% → 23% – 39%PlayoffsSun 22 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTDetroit54%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 71%Tie <1%TB 29%34% → 23% – 39%PlayoffsMon 30 Nov · Home8:15 PM ESTCarolina32%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 56%Tie <1%CAR 44%34% → 19% – 36%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTChargers57%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 38%Tie <1%LAC 62%34% → 23% – 38%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTBaltimore48%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 66%Tie <1%TB 34%34% → 23% – 38%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTNew Orleans36%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 59%Tie <1%NO 40%34% → 17% – 33%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTAtlanta48%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 64%Tie <1%TB 35%34% → 19% – 40%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTRams60%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 35%Tie <1%LAR 64%34% → 21% – 37%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTNew Orleans36%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 55%Tie <1%TB 45%34% → 18% – 34%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-08-13

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye3%

Tampa Bay 13+ wins

Divisional Round
1Tampa BayHomeWild Card Round winner4 Seattle or 5 Atlanta

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 518. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Tampa Bay1520
2Green Bay1250
3Dallas1250
4Seattle1160
5Atlanta1160
6Philadelphia1070
749ers1070
-Arizona1070
-Detroit980
Win the division, host a Wild Card game19%

Tampa Bay 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
3Tampa BayHome6Green Bay

Alongside it: 2 Arizona v 7 Seattle · 4 Minnesota v 5 49ers

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,845. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Philadelphia1520
2Arizona1340
3Tampa Bay1160
4Minnesota1160
549ers1250
6Green Bay1160
7Seattle1160
-Detroit1070
-Giants980
-Atlanta7100
-New Orleans7100
Wild Card berth, on the road12%

Tampa Bay 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
3SeattleHome6Tampa Bay

Alongside it: 2 New Orleans v 7 49ers · 4 Detroit v 5 Minnesota

  1. 46% of this route

    • above Green BayGreen Bay out of the postseason (90%) · Green Bay 1+ game back (94%)
    • above ChicagoChicago out of the postseason (91%) · Chicago 1+ game back (93%)

  2. 28% of this route

  3. 26% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,078. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Washington1610
2New Orleans1520
3Seattle1340
4Detroit1340
5Minnesota1250
6Tampa Bay1160
749ers1070
-Dallas1070
-Atlanta881
-Green Bay7100
-Chicago6101
Miss the postseason66%