MLB · 2026

22th by playoff odds30 clubs

Pittsburgh

4th · 63-66

Playoffs1%

Elimination number

The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.

27

Lose the next 27 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Could be eliminated as soon as Wed 9 Sep.

Next upFriday · Away10:10 PM EDTPittsburgh1%PlayoffsDodgers>99%PlayoffsMatch resultLAD 62%PIT 38%Win → <1% · Loss → <1%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Home19 AugDetroit3Pittsburgh±041% → 1%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division<1%

Bye<1%

Pennant<1%

World Series<1%

4th in the table · 22th by playoff odds.

NL Central finish

1st2nd3rd4th5th

1st · division winner

Most likely 4th. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

National League finish

1st6th · playoff line15th

Most likely 10th. The top 6 in the league make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Friday · Away10:10 PM EDTPittsburgh1%PlayoffsDodgers>99%PlayoffsMatch resultLAD 62%PIT 38%Win → <1% · Loss → <1%Playoffs

Upcoming

Saturday · Away7:15 PM EDTDodgers>99%PlayoffsMatch resultLAD 62%PIT 38%1% → <1% – 1%Playoffs Sunday · Away4:10 PM EDTDodgers>99%PlayoffsMatch resultLAD 62%PIT 38%1% → <1% – 1%Playoffs Monday · Away9:40 PM EDTSan Diego65%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 59%PIT 41%1% → <1% – 2%Playoffs

Full schedule33 to play

Friday · Away10:10 PM EDTDodgers>99%PlayoffsMatch resultLAD 62%PIT 38%1% → 0% – <1%Playoffs Saturday · Away7:15 PM EDTDodgers>99%PlayoffsMatch resultLAD 62%PIT 38%1% → <1% – 1%Playoffs Sunday · Away4:10 PM EDTDodgers>99%PlayoffsMatch resultLAD 62%PIT 38%1% → <1% – 1%Playoffs Monday · Away9:40 PM EDTSan Diego65%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 59%PIT 41%1% → <1% – 2%Playoffs Tuesday · Away9:40 PM EDTSan Diego65%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 59%PIT 41%1% → <1% – 2%Playoffs Wed 26 Aug · Away4:10 PM EDTSan Diego65%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 59%PIT 41%1% → <1% – 2%Playoffs Fri 28 Aug · Away8:15 PM EDTSt. Louis10%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 55%PIT 45%1% → 1% – 2%Playoffs Sat 29 Aug · Away2:15 PM EDTSt. Louis10%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 55%PIT 45%1% → 1% – 2%Playoffs Sun 30 Aug · Away2:15 PM EDTSt. Louis10%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 55%PIT 45%1% → 1% – 2%Playoffs Tue 1 Sep · Home6:40 PM EDTSan Francisco<1%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 59%SF 41%1% → 1% – 2%Playoffs Wed 2 Sep · Home6:40 PM EDTSan Francisco<1%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 59%SF 41%1% → 1% – 2%Playoffs Thu 3 Sep · Home12:35 PM EDTSan Francisco<1%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 59%SF 41%1% → 1% – 2%Playoffs Fri 4 Sep · Home6:45 PM EDTAngels<1%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 61%LAA 39%1% → 1% – 2%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Home6:40 PM EDTAngels<1%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 61%LAA 39%1% → 1% – 2%Playoffs Sun 6 Sep · Home1:35 PM EDTAngels<1%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 61%LAA 39%1% → 1% – 2%Playoffs Tue 8 Sep · Away7:40 PM EDTWhite Sox84%PlayoffsMatch resultCWS 54%PIT 46%1% → 1% – 2%Playoffs Wed 9 Sep · Away7:40 PM EDTWhite Sox84%PlayoffsMatch resultCWS 54%PIT 46%1% → 1% – 2%Playoffs Thu 10 Sep · Away7:40 PM EDTWhite Sox84%PlayoffsMatch resultCWS 54%PIT 46%1% → 1% – 2%Playoffs Fri 11 Sep · Away2:20 PM EDTCubs99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHC 62%PIT 38%1% → 1% – 2%Playoffs Sat 12 Sep · Away2:20 PM EDTCubs99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHC 62%PIT 38%1% → 1% – 2%Playoffs Sun 13 Sep · Away2:20 PM EDTCubs99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHC 62%PIT 38%1% → 1% – 2%Playoffs Tue 15 Sep · Home6:40 PM EDTMilwaukee>99%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 43%MIL 57%1% → 1% – 2%Playoffs Wed 16 Sep · Home6:40 PM EDTMilwaukee>99%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 43%MIL 57%1% → 1% – 2%Playoffs Thu 17 Sep · Home12:35 PM EDTMilwaukee>99%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 43%MIL 57%1% → <1% – 1%Playoffs Fri 18 Sep · Home6:40 PM EDTKansas City<1%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 57%KC 43%1% → <1% – 1%Playoffs Sat 19 Sep · Home6:40 PM EDTKansas City<1%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 57%KC 43%1% → <1% – 1%Playoffs Sun 20 Sep · Home1:35 PM EDTKansas City<1%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 57%KC 43%1% → <1% – 1%Playoffs Tue 22 Sep · Home6:40 PM EDTSt. Louis10%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 52%STL 48%1% → <1% – 1%Playoffs Wed 23 Sep · Home6:40 PM EDTSt. Louis10%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 52%STL 48%1% → <1% – 1%Playoffs Thu 24 Sep · Home12:35 PM EDTSt. Louis10%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 52%STL 48%1% → <1% – 1%Playoffs Fri 25 Sep · Away6:40 PM EDTDetroit14%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 54%PIT 46%1% → <1% – 1%Playoffs Sat 26 Sep · Away1:10 PM EDTDetroit14%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 54%PIT 46%1% → <1% – 1%Playoffs Sun 27 Sep · Away3:10 PM EDTDetroit14%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 54%PIT 46%1% → 0% – 1%Playoffs

History

Final · Home19 AugDetroit3Pittsburgh±041% → 1%Playoffs Final · Home18 AugDetroit1Pittsburgh▲ +14<1% → 1%Playoffs Final · Home17 AugDetroit8Pittsburgh±051% → 1%Playoffs

All results129 played

Final · Home19 AugDetroit3Pittsburgh±041% → 1%Playoffs Final · Home18 AugDetroit1Pittsburgh▲ +14<1% → 1%Playoffs Final · Home17 AugDetroit8Pittsburgh±051% → 1%Playoffs Final · Home16 AugBoston3Pittsburgh±081% → 1%Playoffs Final · Home15 AugBoston4Pittsburgh±001% → 1%Playoffs Final · Home14 AugBoston4Pittsburgh±081% → 1%Playoffs Final · Away13 AugMiami1Pittsburgh▲ +113<1% → 1%Playoffs Final · Away12 AugMiami8Pittsburgh±021% → 1%Playoffs Final · Away11 AugMiami2Pittsburgh±001% → 1%Playoffs Final · Home9 AugMets11Pittsburgh±014% → 4%Playoffs Final · Home8 AugMets0Pittsburgh±092% → 2%Playoffs Final · Home7 AugMets6Pittsburgh±044% → 4%Playoffs Final · Away6 AugMilwaukee5Pittsburgh±025% → 5%Playoffs Final · Away5 AugMilwaukee4Pittsburgh±026% → 6%Playoffs Final · Away4 AugMilwaukee4Pittsburgh±028% → 8%Playoffs Final · Away3 AugMilwaukee3Pittsburgh±046% → 6%Playoffs Final · Away2 AugCincinnati10Pittsburgh±029% → 9%Playoffs Final · Away1 AugCincinnati1Pittsburgh±048% → 8%Playoffs Final · Away31 JulCincinnati8Pittsburgh▼ -4713% → 9%Playoffs Final · Away30 JulCincinnati3Pittsburgh▲ +1215% → 16%Playoffs Final · Home29 JulArizona3Pittsburgh▼ -8022% → 14%Playoffs Final · Home28 JulArizona8Pittsburgh▲ +1729% → 30%Playoffs Final · Home27 JulArizona2Pittsburgh±0321% → 21%Playoffs Final · Home26 JulCubs7Pittsburgh▲ +1816% → 17%Playoffs Final · Home25 JulCubs11Pittsburgh±0020% → 20%Playoffs Final · Home24 JulCubs3Pittsburgh▲ +1225% → 26%Playoffs Final · Away22 JulYankees2Pittsburgh▲ +1022% → 23%Playoffs Final · Away22 JulYankees3Pittsburgh▲ +3523% → 26%Playoffs Final · Away20 JulYankees8Pittsburgh5 Final · Away19 JulCleveland1Pittsburgh7 Final · Away18 JulCleveland5Pittsburgh3 Final · Away18 JulCleveland1Pittsburgh7 Final · Home12 JulMilwaukee5Pittsburgh14 Final · Home11 JulMilwaukee2Pittsburgh3 Final · Home11 JulMilwaukee6Pittsburgh7 Final · Home9 JulAtlanta10Pittsburgh5 Final · Home8 JulAtlanta3Pittsburgh0 Final · Home7 JulAtlanta4Pittsburgh12 Final · Away5 JulWashington5Pittsburgh11 Final · Away4 JulWashington1Pittsburgh7 Final · Away3 JulWashington9Pittsburgh5 Final · Away2 JulPhiladelphia1Pittsburgh6 Final · Away1 JulPhiladelphia10Pittsburgh6 Final · Away30 JunPhiladelphia8Pittsburgh0 Final · Away29 JunPhiladelphia7Pittsburgh11 Final · Home28 JunCincinnati4Pittsburgh9 Final · Home27 JunCincinnati9Pittsburgh7 Final · Home26 JunCincinnati6Pittsburgh4 Final · Home25 JunSeattle1Pittsburgh5 Final · Home24 JunSeattle1Pittsburgh11 Final · Home23 JunSeattle3Pittsburgh2 Final · Away21 JunColorado6Pittsburgh8 Final · Away20 JunColorado2Pittsburgh1 Final · Away19 JunColorado4Pittsburgh3 Final · Away17 JunAthletics4Pittsburgh12 Final · Away16 JunAthletics5Pittsburgh6 Final · Away15 JunAthletics11Pittsburgh2 Final · Home14 JunMiami4Pittsburgh2 Final · Home13 JunMiami2Pittsburgh3 Final · Home12 JunMiami8Pittsburgh3 Final · Home11 JunDodgers8Pittsburgh6 Final · Home10 JunDodgers8Pittsburgh9 Final · Home9 JunDodgers12Pittsburgh3 Final · Away7 JunAtlanta3Pittsburgh2 Final · Away6 JunAtlanta6Pittsburgh3 Final · Away5 JunAtlanta6Pittsburgh3 Final · Away4 JunHouston1Pittsburgh5 Final · Away3 JunHouston11Pittsburgh9 Final · Away2 JunHouston6Pittsburgh10 Final · Home31 MayMinnesota3Pittsburgh9 Final · Home30 MayMinnesota9Pittsburgh10 Final · Home29 MayMinnesota5Pittsburgh6 Final · Home28 MayCubs7Pittsburgh2 Final · Home27 MayCubs10Pittsburgh4 Final · Home26 MayCubs1Pittsburgh12 Final · Home25 MayCubs1Pittsburgh2 Final · Away24 MayToronto1Pittsburgh4 Final · Away23 MayToronto5Pittsburgh2 Final · Away22 MayToronto6Pittsburgh2 Final · Away21 MaySt. Louis2Pittsburgh6 Final · Away20 MaySt. Louis0Pittsburgh7 Final · Away19 MaySt. Louis9Pittsburgh6 Final · Home17 MayPhiladelphia6Pittsburgh0 Final · Home16 MayPhiladelphia6Pittsburgh0 Final · Home15 MayPhiladelphia11Pittsburgh9 Final · Home14 MayColorado2Pittsburgh7 Final · Home13 MayColorado10Pittsburgh4 Final · Home12 MayColorado1Pittsburgh3 Final · Away10 MaySan Francisco7Pittsburgh6 Final · Away9 MaySan Francisco3Pittsburgh13 Final · Away8 MaySan Francisco5Pittsburgh2 Final · Away7 MayArizona2Pittsburgh4 Final · Away6 MayArizona0Pittsburgh1 Final · Away5 MayArizona9Pittsburgh0 Final · Home3 MayCincinnati0Pittsburgh1 Final · Home2 MayCincinnati7Pittsburgh17 Final · Home1 MayCincinnati1Pittsburgh9 Final · Home30 AprSt. Louis10Pittsburgh5 Final · Home29 AprSt. Louis5Pittsburgh4 Final · Home28 AprSt. Louis11Pittsburgh7 Final · Home27 AprSt. Louis4Pittsburgh2 Final · Away26 AprMilwaukee5Pittsburgh0 Final · Away25 AprMilwaukee3Pittsburgh6 Final · Away24 AprMilwaukee0Pittsburgh6 Final · Away23 AprTexas6Pittsburgh1 Final · Away22 AprTexas4Pittsburgh8 Final · Away21 AprTexas5Pittsburgh1 Final · Home19 AprTampa Bay3Pittsburgh6 Final · Home18 AprTampa Bay8Pittsburgh7 Final · Home17 AprTampa Bay1Pittsburgh5 Final · Home16 AprWashington8Pittsburgh7 Final · Home15 AprWashington0Pittsburgh2 Final · Home14 AprWashington5Pittsburgh4 Final · Home13 AprWashington5Pittsburgh16 Final · Away12 AprCubs7Pittsburgh6 Final · Away11 AprCubs3Pittsburgh4 Final · Away10 AprCubs0Pittsburgh2 Final · Home8 AprSan Diego8Pittsburgh2 Final · Home7 AprSan Diego1Pittsburgh7 Final · Home6 AprSan Diego5Pittsburgh0 Final · Home5 AprBaltimore2Pittsburgh8 Final · Home4 AprBaltimore2Pittsburgh3 Final · Home3 AprBaltimore4Pittsburgh5 Final · Away1 AprCincinnati3Pittsburgh8 Final · Away31 MarCincinnati3Pittsburgh8 Final · Away30 MarCincinnati2Pittsburgh0 Final · Away29 MarMets3Pittsburgh4 Final · Away28 MarMets4Pittsburgh2 Final · Away26 MarMets11Pittsburgh7

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round byeNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Win the division, host the Wild Card SeriesNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Wild Card berth, host the Wild Card Series<1%

A possible long-shot route: 3 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Pittsburgh 87+ wins

Wild Card berth, on the road1%

A possible long-shot route: 178 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Pittsburgh 84+ wins

Wild Card Series

3AtlantaHome6Pittsburgh

Alongside it: 4 Cubs v 5 Philadelphia

How the table finishedthe middle season

The National League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 178. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Milwaukee	100	62
2	Dodgers	98	64
3	Atlanta	95	67
4	Cubs	92	70
5	Philadelphia	91	71
6	Pittsburgh	86	76
-	San Diego	84	78
-	St. Louis	84	78
-	Arizona	83	79

Miss the postseason99%

Pittsburgh under 83 wins

How the table finishedthe middle season

The National League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 19,819. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Dodgers	96	66
2	Cubs	95	67
3	Atlanta	94	68
4	Milwaukee	93	69
5	San Diego	91	71
6	Philadelphia	87	75
-	Arizona	86	76
-	St. Louis	85	77
-	Pittsburgh	79	83