Magic Number.
USL Championship · 2026
25th by playoff odds25 clubs

Monterey Bay

12th · 4-4-13 · 16 pts
Playoffs<1%
Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
5

Lose the next 5 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSaturday · Away7:30 PM EDTMonterey Bay<1%PlayoffsRhode Island94%PlayoffsMatch resultRI 62%Draw 21%MB 17%Win → <1% · Draw → <1% · Loss → <1%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Away15 AugOakland1Monterey Bay±01<1% → <1%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%
Championship<1%

12th in the table · 25th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish
1st8th · playoff line12th

Most likely 12th. The top 8 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Away7:30 PM EDTMonterey Bay<1%PlayoffsRhode Island94%PlayoffsMatch resultRI 62%Draw 21%MB 17%Win → <1% · Draw → <1% · Loss → <1%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sat 29 Aug · Home10:00 PM EDTSacramento95%PlayoffsMatch resultMB 25%Draw 25%SAC 50%<1% → 0% – 0%PlayoffsSat 5 Sep · Home10:00 PM EDTPhoenix23%PlayoffsMatch resultMB 32%Draw 26%PHX 42%<1% → 0% – 0%PlayoffsSat 19 Sep · Away7:00 PM EDTCharleston>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHS 71%Draw 17%MB 12%<1% → 0% – <1%Playoffs
Full schedule9 to play
Saturday · Away7:30 PM EDTRhode Island94%PlayoffsMatch resultRI 62%Draw 21%MB 17%<1% → 0% – 0%PlayoffsSat 29 Aug · Home10:00 PM EDTSacramento95%PlayoffsMatch resultMB 25%Draw 25%SAC 50%<1% → 0% – 0%PlayoffsSat 5 Sep · Home10:00 PM EDTPhoenix23%PlayoffsMatch resultMB 32%Draw 26%PHX 42%<1% → 0% – 0%PlayoffsSat 19 Sep · Away7:00 PM EDTCharleston>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHS 71%Draw 17%MB 12%<1% → 0% – <1%PlayoffsSat 26 Sep · Home10:00 PM EDTLexington81%PlayoffsMatch resultMB 30%Draw 26%LEX 44%<1% → 0% – <1%PlayoffsSat 3 Oct · Away10:00 PM EDTOrange County99%PlayoffsMatch resultOC 67%Draw 19%MB 14%<1% → 0% – <1%PlayoffsSat 10 Oct · Away9:00 PM EDTNew Mexico>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNM 71%Draw 17%MB 12%<1% → <1% – <1%PlayoffsSat 17 Oct · Home10:00 PM EDTColorado Springs77%PlayoffsMatch resultMB 30%Draw 26%COS 44%<1% → 0% – 0%PlayoffsSat 24 Oct · Home10:00 PM EDTLas Vegas58%PlayoffsMatch resultMB 33%Draw 26%LV 41%<1% → 0% – 0%Playoffs

History

Final · Away15 AugOakland1Monterey Bay±01<1% → <1%PlayoffsFinal · Home8 AugNew Mexico5Monterey Bay±02<1% → <1%PlayoffsFinal · Away5 AugEl Paso1Monterey Bay±00<1% → <1%Playoffs
All results21 played
Final · Away15 AugOakland1Monterey Bay±01<1% → <1%PlayoffsFinal · Home8 AugNew Mexico5Monterey Bay±02<1% → <1%PlayoffsFinal · Away5 AugEl Paso1Monterey Bay±00<1% → <1%PlayoffsFinal · Away1 AugLexington3Monterey Bay±021% → 1%PlayoffsFinal · Home25 JulOrange County2Monterey Bay▼ -112% → 1%PlayoffsFinal · Away18 JulPhoenix3Monterey Bay▼ -124% → 3%PlayoffsFinal · Away4 JulSan Antonio0Monterey Bay0Final · Home20 JunEl Paso0Monterey Bay1Final · Away17 JunTulsa2Monterey Bay0Final · Home10 JunJacksonville1Monterey Bay2Final · Home30 MayLoudoun1Monterey Bay4Final · Home23 MayBirmingham0Monterey Bay2Final · Away8 MayLexington3Monterey Bay1Final · Home3 MayTulsa2Monterey Bay1Final · Away18 AprColorado Springs4Monterey Bay1Final · Away11 AprIndy3Monterey Bay1Final · Home4 AprSan Antonio0Monterey Bay0Final · Away28 MarLas Vegas1Monterey Bay0Final · Away21 MarSacramento1Monterey Bay1Final · Home14 MarEl Paso3Monterey Bay0Final · Home7 MarOakland1Monterey Bay0

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-03-092026-08-20

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Host a conference quarterfinalNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Reach the quarterfinals on the road<1%

A possible long-shot route: 2 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Monterey Bay 37+ points

Miss the postseason>99%