MLB · 2026

21th by playoff odds30 clubs

Miami

3rd · 64-64

Playoffs4%

Elimination number

The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.

29

Lose the next 29 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Could be eliminated as soon as Wed 9 Sep.

Next upFriday · Home7:10 PM EDTMiami4%PlayoffsWashington<1%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 58%WSH 42%Win → 3% · Loss → 1%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Away19 AugPhiladelphia4Miami▼ -216% → 4%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division<1%

Bye<1%

Pennant<1%

World Series<1%

3rd in the table · 21th by playoff odds.

NL East finish

1st2nd3rd4th5th

1st · division winner

Most likely 3rd. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

National League finish

1st6th · playoff line15th

Most likely 9th. The top 6 in the league make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Friday · Home7:10 PM EDTMiami4%PlayoffsWashington<1%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 58%WSH 42%Win → 3% · Loss → 1%Playoffs

Upcoming

Saturday · Home4:10 PM EDTWashington<1%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 58%WSH 42%4% → 1% – 3%Playoffs Sunday · Home1:40 PM EDTWashington<1%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 58%WSH 42%4% → 1% – 3%Playoffs Monday · Home6:40 PM EDTBoston97%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 48%BOS 52%4% → 2% – 5%Playoffs

Full schedule34 to play

Friday · Home7:10 PM EDTWashington<1%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 58%WSH 42%4% → 1% – 3%Playoffs Saturday · Home4:10 PM EDTWashington<1%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 58%WSH 42%4% → 1% – 3%Playoffs Sunday · Home1:40 PM EDTWashington<1%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 58%WSH 42%4% → 1% – 3%Playoffs Monday · Home6:40 PM EDTBoston97%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 48%BOS 52%4% → 2% – 5%Playoffs Tuesday · Home6:40 PM EDTBoston97%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 48%BOS 52%4% → 2% – 5%Playoffs Wed 26 Aug · Home6:40 PM EDTBoston97%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 48%BOS 52%4% → 2% – 5%Playoffs Fri 28 Aug · Away6:45 PM EDTWashington<1%PlayoffsMatch resultWSH 49%MIA 51%4% → 2% – 5%Playoffs Sat 29 Aug · Away4:05 PM EDTWashington<1%PlayoffsMatch resultWSH 49%MIA 51%4% → 2% – 5%Playoffs Sun 30 Aug · Away12:15 PM EDTWashington<1%PlayoffsMatch resultWSH 49%MIA 51%4% → 3% – 6%Playoffs Mon 31 Aug · Away6:45 PM EDTWashington<1%PlayoffsMatch resultWSH 49%MIA 51%4% → 3% – 7%Playoffs Tue 1 Sep · Away7:40 PM EDTKansas City<1%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 49%MIA 51%4% → 4% – 8%Playoffs Wed 2 Sep · Away7:40 PM EDTKansas City<1%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 49%MIA 51%4% → 4% – 8%Playoffs Thu 3 Sep · Away7:40 PM EDTKansas City<1%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 49%MIA 51%4% → 4% – 8%Playoffs Fri 4 Sep · Home7:10 PM EDTCubs99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 47%CHC 53%4% → 5% – 9%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Home4:10 PM EDTCubs99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 47%CHC 53%4% → 5% – 8%Playoffs Sun 6 Sep · Home1:40 PM EDTCubs99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 47%CHC 53%4% → 4% – 7%Playoffs Mon 7 Sep · Home1:10 PM EDTMets<1%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 55%NYM 45%4% → 3% – 7%Playoffs Tue 8 Sep · Home6:40 PM EDTMets<1%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 55%NYM 45%4% → 3% – 6%Playoffs Wed 9 Sep · Home6:40 PM EDTMets<1%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 55%NYM 45%4% → 3% – 6%Playoffs Fri 11 Sep · Home7:10 PM EDTDodgers>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 46%LAD 54%4% → 3% – 7%Playoffs Sat 12 Sep · Home4:10 PM EDTDodgers>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 46%LAD 54%4% → 3% – 6%Playoffs Sun 13 Sep · Home1:40 PM EDTDodgers>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 46%LAD 54%4% → 3% – 6%Playoffs Mon 14 Sep · Away9:40 PM EDTArizona39%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 56%MIA 44%4% → 3% – 7%Playoffs Tue 15 Sep · Away9:40 PM EDTArizona39%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 56%MIA 44%4% → 3% – 7%Playoffs Wed 16 Sep · Away9:40 PM EDTArizona39%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 56%MIA 44%4% → 3% – 7%Playoffs Fri 18 Sep · Away9:40 PM EDTSan Diego65%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 58%MIA 42%4% → 3% – 7%Playoffs Sat 19 Sep · Away8:40 PM EDTSan Diego65%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 58%MIA 42%4% → 3% – 8%Playoffs Sun 20 Sep · Away4:10 PM EDTSan Diego65%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 58%MIA 42%4% → 3% – 7%Playoffs Tue 22 Sep · Away7:40 PM EDTCubs99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHC 60%MIA 40%4% → 3% – 7%Playoffs Wed 23 Sep · Away7:40 PM EDTCubs99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHC 60%MIA 40%4% → 3% – 6%Playoffs Thu 24 Sep · Away2:20 PM EDTCubs99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHC 60%MIA 40%4% → 3% – 5%Playoffs Fri 25 Sep · Home7:10 PM EDTAtlanta98%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 49%ATL 51%4% → 2% – 5%Playoffs Sat 26 Sep · Home4:10 PM EDTAtlanta98%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 49%ATL 51%4% → 3% – 5%Playoffs Sun 27 Sep · Home3:10 PM EDTAtlanta98%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 49%ATL 51%4% → 2% – 4%Playoffs

History

Final · Away19 AugPhiladelphia4Miami▼ -216% → 4%Playoffs Final · Away18 AugPhiladelphia6Miami▼ -449% → 5%Playoffs Final · Away17 AugPhiladelphia6Miami▼ -2511% → 9%Playoffs

All results128 played

Final · Away19 AugPhiladelphia4Miami▼ -216% → 4%Playoffs Final · Away18 AugPhiladelphia6Miami▼ -449% → 5%Playoffs Final · Away17 AugPhiladelphia6Miami▼ -2511% → 9%Playoffs Final · Away16 AugCincinnati1Miami±0710% → 10%Playoffs Final · Away15 AugCincinnati4Miami±088% → 8%Playoffs Final · Away14 AugCincinnati1Miami±0012% → 12%Playoffs Final · Home13 AugPittsburgh13Miami▼ -5119% → 14%Playoffs Final · Home12 AugPittsburgh2Miami±0815% → 15%Playoffs Final · Home11 AugPittsburgh0Miami±0210% → 10%Playoffs Final · Home9 AugAngels3Miami▲ +11212% → 13%Playoffs Final · Home8 AugAngels0Miami▼ -1710% → 9%Playoffs Final · Home7 AugAngels4Miami±0312% → 12%Playoffs Final · Away6 AugAtlanta11Miami±0316% → 16%Playoffs Final · Away5 AugAtlanta4Miami▲ +1119% → 20%Playoffs Final · Away4 AugAtlanta4Miami±0225% → 25%Playoffs Final · Away2 AugMets0Miami▼ -1224% → 23%Playoffs Final · Away1 AugMets2Miami±0622% → 22%Playoffs Final · Away31 JulMets2Miami▲ +1517% → 18%Playoffs Final · Away30 JulMets4Miami±0219% → 19%Playoffs Final · Home29 JulPhiladelphia6Miami▲ +4816% → 20%Playoffs Final · Home28 JulPhiladelphia0Miami▲ +2112% → 14%Playoffs Final · Home27 JulPhiladelphia7Miami±088% → 8%Playoffs Final · Home26 JulSan Diego5Miami±0312% → 12%Playoffs Final · Home25 JulSan Diego7Miami±0215% → 15%Playoffs Final · Home24 JulSan Diego4Miami▲ +1219% → 20%Playoffs Final · Away22 JulHouston5Miami▼ -5223% → 18%Playoffs Final · Away21 JulHouston5Miami▲ +1329% → 30%Playoffs Final · Away20 JulHouston8Miami5 Final · Away19 JulMilwaukee3Miami1 Final · Away18 JulMilwaukee8Miami6 Final · Away17 JulMilwaukee2Miami1 Final · Home12 JulCleveland5Miami2 Final · Home11 JulCleveland4Miami1 Final · Home10 JulCleveland3Miami2 Final · Home9 JulSeattle4Miami8 Final · Home8 JulSeattle0Miami2 Final · Home7 JulSeattle5Miami6 Final · Away5 JulAthletics8Miami9 Final · Away4 JulAthletics2Miami7 Final · Away3 JulAthletics5Miami12 Final · Away2 JulColorado14Miami4 Final · Away1 JulColorado6Miami3 Final · Away30 JunColorado3Miami14 Final · Away29 JunColorado7Miami10 Final · Away28 JunSt. Louis2Miami1 Final · Away27 JunSt. Louis1Miami5 Final · Away26 JunSt. Louis0Miami4 Final · Home24 JunTexas2Miami4 Final · Home23 JunTexas4Miami6 Final · Home22 JunTexas4Miami3 Final · Home21 JunSan Francisco1Miami2 Final · Home20 JunSan Francisco3Miami6 Final · Home19 JunSan Francisco3Miami4 Final · Away17 JunPhiladelphia4Miami12 Final · Away16 JunPhiladelphia8Miami2 Final · Away15 JunPhiladelphia7Miami0 Final · Away14 JunPittsburgh2Miami4 Final · Away13 JunPittsburgh3Miami2 Final · Away12 JunPittsburgh3Miami8 Final · Home11 JunArizona0Miami2 Final · Home10 JunArizona0Miami8 Final · Home9 JunArizona6Miami10 Final · Home7 JunTampa Bay1Miami4 Final · Home6 JunTampa Bay3Miami4 Final · Home5 JunTampa Bay6Miami0 Final · Away3 JunWashington1Miami4 Final · Away2 JunWashington3Miami7 Final · Away1 JunWashington3Miami7 Final · Away31 MayMets10Miami1 Final · Away30 MayMets6Miami1 Final · Away29 MayMets9Miami7 Final · Away27 MayToronto2Miami1 Final · Away26 MayToronto8Miami1 Final · Away25 MayToronto2Miami8 Final · Home24 MayMets0Miami4 Final · Home23 MayMets1Miami4 Final · Home22 MayMets1Miami2 Final · Home21 MayAtlanta9Miami3 Final · Home20 MayAtlanta9Miami1 Final · Home19 MayAtlanta8Miami4 Final · Home18 MayAtlanta0Miami12 Final · Away17 MayTampa Bay6Miami3 Final · Away16 MayTampa Bay5Miami10 Final · Away15 MayTampa Bay7Miami2 Final · Away14 MayMinnesota9Miami1 Final · Away13 MayMinnesota5Miami9 Final · Away12 MayMinnesota3Miami0 Final · Home10 MayWashington2Miami5 Final · Home9 MayWashington7Miami8 Final · Home8 MayWashington3Miami2 Final · Home7 MayBaltimore3Miami4 Final · Home6 MayBaltimore7Miami4 Final · Home5 MayBaltimore9Miami7 Final · Home4 MayPhiladelphia1Miami0 Final · Home3 MayPhiladelphia7Miami2 Final · Home2 MayPhiladelphia0Miami4 Final · Home1 MayPhiladelphia6Miami5 Final · Away29 AprDodgers2Miami3 Final · Away28 AprDodgers1Miami2 Final · Away27 AprDodgers5Miami4 Final · Away26 AprSan Francisco6Miami3 Final · Away25 AprSan Francisco6Miami2 Final · Away24 AprSan Francisco4Miami9 Final · Home22 AprSt. Louis1Miami4 Final · Home21 AprSt. Louis5Miami3 Final · Home20 AprSt. Louis3Miami5 Final · Home19 AprMilwaukee3Miami5 Final · Home18 AprMilwaukee5Miami2 Final · Home17 AprMilwaukee7Miami5 Final · Away15 AprAtlanta6Miami3 Final · Away14 AprAtlanta6Miami5 Final · Away13 AprAtlanta4Miami10 Final · Away12 AprDetroit8Miami2 Final · Away11 AprDetroit6Miami1 Final · Away10 AprDetroit2Miami0 Final · Home9 AprCincinnati1Miami8 Final · Home8 AprCincinnati4Miami7 Final · Home7 AprCincinnati6Miami3 Final · Home6 AprCincinnati2Miami0 Final · Away5 AprYankees6Miami7 Final · Away4 AprYankees9Miami7 Final · Away3 AprYankees8Miami2 Final · Home1 AprWhite Sox0Miami10 Final · Home31 MarWhite Sox2Miami9 Final · Home30 MarWhite Sox9Miami4 Final · Home29 MarColorado3Miami4 Final · Home28 MarColorado3Miami4 Final · Home27 MarColorado1Miami2

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round byeNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Win the division, host the Wild Card Series<1%

A possible long-shot route: 9 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Miami 87+ wins

Wild Card berth, host the Wild Card Series<1%

A possible long-shot route: 26 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Miami 87+ wins

Wild Card berth, on the road4%

Miami 84+ wins

Wild Card Series

3PhiladelphiaHome6Miami

Alongside it: 4 Cubs v 5 Atlanta

78% of this route
- above San DiegoSan Diego out of the postseason (96%) · San Diego 1+ game back (91%)
22% of this route
- below San DiegoSan Diego under 92 wins (91%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The National League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 562. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Milwaukee	100	62
2	Dodgers	97	65
3	Philadelphia	95	67
4	Cubs	94	68
5	Atlanta	87	75
6	Miami	86	76
-	San Diego	84	78
-	Arizona	83	79

Miss the postseason96%

Miami under 85 wins

How the table finishedthe middle season

The National League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 19,242. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Milwaukee	97	65
2	Dodgers	97	65
3	Philadelphia	93	69
4	Cubs	94	68
5	Atlanta	88	74
6	Arizona	84	78
-	San Diego	83	79
-	Pittsburgh	81	81
-	Miami	80	82