MLB · 2026

19th by playoff odds30 clubs

St. Louis

3rd · 65-63

Playoffs10%

Elimination number

The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.

31

Lose the next 31 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upTomorrow · Away12:40 PM EDTSt. Louis10%PlayoffsCincinnati<1%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 52%STL 48%Win → 21% · Loss → 13%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Away19 AugCincinnati5St. Louis▼ -6416% → 10%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division<1%

Bye<1%

Pennant<1%

World Series<1%

3rd in the table · 19th by playoff odds.

NL Central finish

1st2nd3rd4th5th

1st · division winner

Most likely 3rd. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

National League finish

1st6th · playoff line15th

Most likely 8th. The top 6 in the league make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Tomorrow · Away12:40 PM EDTSt. Louis10%PlayoffsCincinnati<1%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 52%STL 48%Win → 21% · Loss → 13%Playoffs

Upcoming

Friday · Away6:40 PM EDTPhiladelphia85%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 60%STL 40%10% → 12% – 23%Playoffs Saturday · Away6:05 PM EDTPhiladelphia85%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 60%STL 40%10% → 13% – 21%Playoffs Sunday · Away1:35 PM EDTPhiladelphia85%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 60%STL 40%10% → 11% – 19%Playoffs

Full schedule34 to play

Tomorrow · Away12:40 PM EDTCincinnati<1%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 52%STL 48%10% → 13% – 21%Playoffs Friday · Away6:40 PM EDTPhiladelphia85%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 60%STL 40%10% → 12% – 23%Playoffs Saturday · Away6:05 PM EDTPhiladelphia85%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 60%STL 40%10% → 13% – 21%Playoffs Sunday · Away1:35 PM EDTPhiladelphia85%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 60%STL 40%10% → 11% – 19%Playoffs Tuesday · Home7:45 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 54%BAL 46%10% → 11% – 17%Playoffs Wed 26 Aug · Home7:45 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 54%BAL 46%10% → 12% – 18%Playoffs Thu 27 Aug · Home2:15 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 54%BAL 46%10% → 12% – 18%Playoffs Fri 28 Aug · Home8:15 PM EDTPittsburgh1%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 55%PIT 45%10% → 11% – 18%Playoffs Sat 29 Aug · Home2:15 PM EDTPittsburgh1%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 55%PIT 45%10% → 11% – 17%Playoffs Sun 30 Aug · Home2:15 PM EDTPittsburgh1%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 55%PIT 45%10% → 10% – 16%Playoffs Tue 1 Sep · Away10:10 PM EDTDodgers>99%PlayoffsMatch resultLAD 61%STL 39%10% → 11% – 18%Playoffs Wed 2 Sep · Away10:10 PM EDTDodgers>99%PlayoffsMatch resultLAD 61%STL 39%10% → 11% – 18%Playoffs Thu 3 Sep · Away10:10 PM EDTDodgers>99%PlayoffsMatch resultLAD 61%STL 39%10% → 12% – 19%Playoffs Fri 4 Sep · Away8:40 PM EDTColorado<1%PlayoffsMatch resultCOL 42%STL 58%10% → 10% – 17%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Away8:10 PM EDTColorado<1%PlayoffsMatch resultCOL 42%STL 58%10% → 11% – 17%Playoffs Sun 6 Sep · Away3:10 PM EDTColorado<1%PlayoffsMatch resultCOL 42%STL 58%10% → 11% – 17%Playoffs Mon 7 Sep · Away8:10 PM EDTSan Francisco<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSF 47%STL 53%10% → 11% – 17%Playoffs Tue 8 Sep · Away9:45 PM EDTSan Francisco<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSF 47%STL 53%10% → 10% – 17%Playoffs Wed 9 Sep · Away3:45 PM EDTSan Francisco<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSF 47%STL 53%10% → 10% – 17%Playoffs Fri 11 Sep · Home8:15 PM EDTWhite Sox84%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 54%CWS 46%10% → 10% – 16%Playoffs Sat 12 Sep · Home7:15 PM EDTWhite Sox84%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 54%CWS 46%10% → 9% – 15%Playoffs Sun 13 Sep · Home2:15 PM EDTWhite Sox84%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 54%CWS 46%10% → 9% – 15%Playoffs Mon 14 Sep · Home7:45 PM EDTSan Francisco<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 60%SF 40%10% → 9% – 15%Playoffs Tue 15 Sep · Home7:45 PM EDTSan Francisco<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 60%SF 40%10% → 9% – 14%Playoffs Wed 16 Sep · Home1:15 PM EDTSan Francisco<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 60%SF 40%10% → 8% – 14%Playoffs Fri 18 Sep · Home8:15 PM EDTWashington<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 58%WSH 42%10% → 9% – 15%Playoffs Sat 19 Sep · Home7:15 PM EDTWashington<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 58%WSH 42%10% → 9% – 14%Playoffs Sun 20 Sep · Home2:15 PM EDTWashington<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 58%WSH 42%10% → 9% – 15%Playoffs Tue 22 Sep · Away6:40 PM EDTPittsburgh1%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 52%STL 48%10% → 9% – 15%Playoffs Wed 23 Sep · Away6:40 PM EDTPittsburgh1%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 52%STL 48%10% → 8% – 14%Playoffs Thu 24 Sep · Away12:35 PM EDTPittsburgh1%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 52%STL 48%10% → 8% – 14%Playoffs Fri 25 Sep · Away7:40 PM EDTMilwaukee>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIL 63%STL 37%10% → 8% – 13%Playoffs Sat 26 Sep · Away7:10 PM EDTMilwaukee>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIL 63%STL 37%10% → 7% – 13%Playoffs Sun 27 Sep · Away3:10 PM EDTMilwaukee>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIL 63%STL 37%10% → 9% – 13%Playoffs

History

Final · Away19 AugCincinnati5St. Louis▼ -6416% → 10%Playoffs Final · Away18 AugCincinnati0St. Louis▲ +4311% → 15%Playoffs Final · Away17 AugCincinnati6St. Louis▼ -2513% → 11%Playoffs

All results128 played

Final · Away19 AugCincinnati5St. Louis▼ -6416% → 10%Playoffs Final · Away18 AugCincinnati0St. Louis▲ +4311% → 15%Playoffs Final · Away17 AugCincinnati6St. Louis▼ -2513% → 11%Playoffs Final · Away17 AugCincinnati1St. Louis±0210% → 10%Playoffs Final · Away16 AugCubs4St. Louis±0118% → 8%Playoffs Final · Away15 AugCubs4St. Louis±086% → 6%Playoffs Final · Away14 AugCubs3St. Louis±0010% → 10%Playoffs Final · Home12 AugPhiladelphia1St. Louis±077% → 7%Playoffs Final · Home11 AugPhiladelphia0St. Louis▲ +124% → 5%Playoffs Final · Home10 AugPhiladelphia6St. Louis±058% → 8%Playoffs Final · Home9 AugColorado4St. Louis±078% → 8%Playoffs Final · Home8 AugColorado8St. Louis▲ +1611% → 12%Playoffs Final · Home7 AugColorado2St. Louis▼ -139% → 8%Playoffs Final · Away5 AugYankees1St. Louis▼ -136% → 5%Playoffs Final · Away4 AugYankees2St. Louis▲ +106% → 7%Playoffs Final · Away3 AugYankees7St. Louis±0135% → 5%Playoffs Final · Away2 AugToronto1St. Louis±054% → 4%Playoffs Final · Away1 AugToronto5St. Louis±017% → 7%Playoffs Final · Away31 JulToronto3St. Louis±0110% → 10%Playoffs Final · Home30 JulCubs4St. Louis▲ +2212% → 14%Playoffs Final · Home29 JulCubs2St. Louis▲ +238% → 10%Playoffs Final · Home28 JulCubs10St. Louis▲ +2211% → 13%Playoffs Final · Home27 JulCubs7St. Louis▲ +1314% → 15%Playoffs Final · Home26 JulCincinnati5St. Louis▲ +1319% → 20%Playoffs Final · Home25 JulCincinnati0St. Louis▲ +4715% → 19%Playoffs Final · Home24 JulCincinnati4St. Louis▲ +2219% → 21%Playoffs Final · Home23 JulArizona10St. Louis6 Final · Away22 JulAngels0St. Louis▲ +5122% → 27%Playoffs Final · Away21 JulAngels5St. Louis±0126% → 26%Playoffs Final · Away20 JulAngels3St. Louis▼ -2229% → 27%Playoffs Final · Away19 JulArizona8St. Louis7 Final · Away18 JulArizona5St. Louis3 Final · Away17 JulArizona4St. Louis5 Final · Home12 JulAtlanta4St. Louis3 Final · Home11 JulAtlanta1St. Louis4 Final · Home10 JulAtlanta1St. Louis2 Final · Home9 JulMilwaukee8St. Louis4 Final · Home8 JulMilwaukee1St. Louis5 Final · Home7 JulMilwaukee10St. Louis2 Final · Home7 JulMilwaukee4St. Louis3 Final · Home6 JulMilwaukee4St. Louis3 Final · Away5 JulCubs6St. Louis4 Final · Away4 JulCubs0St. Louis3 Final · Away3 JulCubs1St. Louis17 Final · Away2 JulAtlanta5St. Louis11 Final · Away1 JulAtlanta5St. Louis1 Final · Away30 JunAtlanta3St. Louis5 Final · Home28 JunMiami1St. Louis2 Final · Home27 JunMiami5St. Louis1 Final · Home26 JunMiami4St. Louis0 Final · Home24 JunArizona9St. Louis4 Final · Home23 JunArizona4St. Louis3 Final · Home22 JunArizona2St. Louis3 Final · Away21 JunKansas City10St. Louis12 Final · Away19 JunKansas City6St. Louis5 Final · Away18 JunKansas City14St. Louis6 Final · Home17 JunSan Diego6St. Louis1 Final · Home16 JunSan Diego2St. Louis3 Final · Home15 JunSan Diego0St. Louis3 Final · Away14 JunMinnesota5St. Louis4 Final · Away13 JunMinnesota6St. Louis9 Final · Away12 JunMinnesota9St. Louis8 Final · Away11 JunMets5St. Louis4 Final · Away10 JunMets2St. Louis9 Final · Away9 JunMets0St. Louis7 Final · Home7 JunCincinnati3St. Louis5 Final · Home6 JunCincinnati5St. Louis6 Final · Home5 JunCincinnati3St. Louis10 Final · Home3 JunTexas3St. Louis5 Final · Home2 JunTexas7St. Louis4 Final · Home1 JunTexas2St. Louis1 Final · Home31 MayCubs1St. Louis5 Final · Home30 MayCubs6St. Louis1 Final · Home29 MayCubs5St. Louis6 Final · Away27 MayMilwaukee2St. Louis1 Final · Away26 MayMilwaukee6St. Louis0 Final · Away25 MayMilwaukee5St. Louis1 Final · Away23 MayCincinnati7St. Louis6 Final · Away23 MayCincinnati1St. Louis8 Final · Home21 MayPittsburgh6St. Louis2 Final · Home20 MayPittsburgh7St. Louis0 Final · Home19 MayPittsburgh6St. Louis9 Final · Home17 MayKansas City2St. Louis0 Final · Home16 MayKansas City2St. Louis4 Final · Home15 MayKansas City4St. Louis5 Final · Away14 MayAthletics4St. Louis5 Final · Away13 MayAthletics6St. Louis2 Final · Away12 MayAthletics4St. Louis6 Final · Away10 MaySan Diego3St. Louis2 Final · Away9 MaySan Diego4St. Louis2 Final · Away8 MaySan Diego0St. Louis6 Final · Away7 MaySan Diego1St. Louis2 Final · Home6 MayMilwaukee6St. Louis2 Final · Home4 MayMilwaukee3St. Louis6 Final · Home3 MayDodgers4St. Louis1 Final · Home2 MayDodgers2St. Louis3 Final · Home1 MayDodgers2St. Louis7 Final · Away30 AprPittsburgh5St. Louis10 Final · Away29 AprPittsburgh4St. Louis5 Final · Away28 AprPittsburgh7St. Louis11 Final · Away27 AprPittsburgh2St. Louis4 Final · Home26 AprSeattle3St. Louis2 Final · Home25 AprSeattle11St. Louis9 Final · Home24 AprSeattle3St. Louis2 Final · Away22 AprMiami4St. Louis1 Final · Away21 AprMiami3St. Louis5 Final · Away20 AprMiami5St. Louis3 Final · Away19 AprHouston5St. Louis7 Final · Away18 AprHouston5St. Louis7 Final · Away17 AprHouston4St. Louis9 Final · Home15 AprCleveland3St. Louis5 Final · Home14 AprCleveland5St. Louis6 Final · Home13 AprCleveland9St. Louis3 Final · Home12 AprBoston9St. Louis3 Final · Home11 AprBoston7St. Louis1 Final · Home10 AprBoston2St. Louis3 Final · Away8 AprWashington1St. Louis6 Final · Away7 AprWashington6St. Louis7 Final · Away6 AprWashington9St. Louis6 Final · Away5 AprDetroit3St. Louis5 Final · Away4 AprDetroit11St. Louis6 Final · Away3 AprDetroit4St. Louis0 Final · Home1 AprMets1St. Louis2 Final · Home31 MarMets0St. Louis3 Final · Home30 MarMets4St. Louis2 Final · Home29 MarTampa Bay11St. Louis7 Final · Home28 MarTampa Bay5St. Louis6 Final · Home26 MarTampa Bay7St. Louis9

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round byeNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Win the division, host the Wild Card SeriesNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Wild Card berth, host the Wild Card Series<1%

A possible long-shot route: 66 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

St. Louis 88+ wins

Wild Card berth, on the road10%

St. Louis 84+ wins

Wild Card Series

3AtlantaHome6St. Louis

Alongside it: 4 Cubs v 5 Philadelphia

67% of this route
- above San DiegoSan Diego under 88 wins (92%)
- above ArizonaArizona out of the postseason (95%) · Arizona 1+ game back (>99%)
20% of this route
- below San DiegoSan Diego under 93 wins (94%)
- above ArizonaArizona out of the postseason (98%) · Arizona 1+ game back (98%)
13% of this route
- above San DiegoSan Diego out of the postseason (>99%) · San Diego under 87 wins (92%)
- below ArizonaArizona under 92 wins (94%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The National League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,313. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Milwaukee	105	57
2	Dodgers	98	64
3	Atlanta	93	69
4	Cubs	93	69
5	Philadelphia	89	73
6	St. Louis	87	75
-	Miami	86	76
-	San Diego	85	77
-	Arizona	83	79

Miss the postseason90%

St. Louis under 86 wins

How the table finishedthe middle season

The National League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 17,974. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Milwaukee	100	62
2	Dodgers	99	63
3	Atlanta	91	71
4	Cubs	94	68
5	Philadelphia	89	73
6	Arizona	85	77
-	San Diego	85	77
-	St. Louis	82	80