MLB · 2026

16th by playoff odds30 clubs

Seattle

3rd · 60-67

Playoffs21%

Elimination number

The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.

31

Lose the next 31 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upTomorrow · Away2:10 PM EDTSeattle21%PlayoffsMilwaukee>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIL 64%SEA 36%Win → 22% · Loss → 13%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Away19 AugMilwaukee5Seattle▲ +7714% → 21%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division16%

Bye3%

Pennant2%

World Series1%

3rd in the table · 16th by playoff odds.

AL West finish

1st2nd3rd4th5th

1st · division winner

Most likely 3rd. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

American League finish

1st6th · playoff line15th

Most likely 12th. The top 6 in the league make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Tomorrow · Away2:10 PM EDTSeattle21%PlayoffsMilwaukee>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIL 64%SEA 36%Win → 22% · Loss → 13%Playoffs

Upcoming

Friday · Home10:10 PM EDTCubs99%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 46%CHC 54%21% → 12% – 19%Playoffs Saturday · Home7:15 PM EDTCubs99%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 46%CHC 54%21% → 13% – 20%Playoffs Sunday · Home4:10 PM EDTCubs99%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 46%CHC 54%21% → 12% – 19%Playoffs

Full schedule35 to play

Tomorrow · Away2:10 PM EDTMilwaukee>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIL 64%SEA 36%21% → 13% – 22%Playoffs Friday · Home10:10 PM EDTCubs99%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 46%CHC 54%21% → 12% – 19%Playoffs Saturday · Home7:15 PM EDTCubs99%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 46%CHC 54%21% → 13% – 20%Playoffs Sunday · Home4:10 PM EDTCubs99%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 46%CHC 54%21% → 12% – 19%Playoffs Monday · Home9:40 PM EDTPhiladelphia85%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 47%PHI 53%21% → 12% – 20%Playoffs Tuesday · Home9:40 PM EDTPhiladelphia85%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 47%PHI 53%21% → 14% – 22%Playoffs Wed 26 Aug · Home4:10 PM EDTPhiladelphia85%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 47%PHI 53%21% → 15% – 23%Playoffs Fri 28 Aug · Away7:15 PM EDTToronto26%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 56%SEA 44%21% → 15% – 24%Playoffs Sat 29 Aug · Away3:07 PM EDTToronto26%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 56%SEA 44%21% → 14% – 22%Playoffs Sun 30 Aug · Away1:37 PM EDTToronto26%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 56%SEA 44%21% → 15% – 23%Playoffs Mon 31 Aug · Away6:45 PM EDTBoston97%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 60%SEA 40%21% → 16% – 24%Playoffs Tue 1 Sep · Away6:45 PM EDTBoston97%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 60%SEA 40%21% → 15% – 23%Playoffs Wed 2 Sep · Away4:10 PM EDTBoston97%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 60%SEA 40%21% → 14% – 22%Playoffs Thu 3 Sep · Home9:40 PM EDTAthletics<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 63%ATH 37%21% → 13% – 21%Playoffs Fri 4 Sep · Home10:10 PM EDTAthletics<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 63%ATH 37%21% → 14% – 22%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Home9:40 PM EDTAthletics<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 63%ATH 37%21% → 14% – 22%Playoffs Sun 6 Sep · Home4:10 PM EDTAthletics<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 63%ATH 37%21% → 15% – 24%Playoffs Tue 8 Sep · Home9:40 PM EDTTexas34%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 54%TEX 46%21% → 14% – 25%Playoffs Wed 9 Sep · Home4:10 PM EDTTexas34%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 54%TEX 46%21% → 16% – 27%Playoffs Thu 10 Sep · Home4:10 PM EDTTexas34%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 54%TEX 46%21% → 16% – 26%Playoffs Fri 11 Sep · Away9:40 PM EDTAthletics<1%PlayoffsMatch resultATH 44%SEA 56%21% → 17% – 26%Playoffs Sat 12 Sep · Away9:40 PM EDTAthletics<1%PlayoffsMatch resultATH 44%SEA 56%21% → 18% – 28%Playoffs Sun 13 Sep · Away4:05 PM EDTAthletics<1%PlayoffsMatch resultATH 44%SEA 56%21% → 18% – 27%Playoffs Mon 14 Sep · Away9:38 PM EDTAngels<1%PlayoffsMatch resultLAA 45%SEA 55%21% → 18% – 26%Playoffs Tue 15 Sep · Away9:38 PM EDTAngels<1%PlayoffsMatch resultLAA 45%SEA 55%21% → 18% – 26%Playoffs Wed 16 Sep · Away9:38 PM EDTAngels<1%PlayoffsMatch resultLAA 45%SEA 55%21% → 19% – 28%Playoffs Fri 18 Sep · Away8:10 PM EDTColorado<1%PlayoffsMatch resultCOL 43%SEA 57%21% → 18% – 27%Playoffs Sat 19 Sep · Away8:10 PM EDTColorado<1%PlayoffsMatch resultCOL 43%SEA 57%21% → 18% – 27%Playoffs Sun 20 Sep · Away3:10 PM EDTColorado<1%PlayoffsMatch resultCOL 43%SEA 57%21% → 18% – 26%Playoffs Tue 22 Sep · Home9:40 PM EDTHouston66%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 52%HOU 48%21% → 17% – 30%Playoffs Wed 23 Sep · Home10:10 PM EDTHouston66%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 52%HOU 48%21% → 17% – 30%Playoffs Thu 24 Sep · Home9:40 PM EDTAngels<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 62%LAA 38%21% → 17% – 26%Playoffs Fri 25 Sep · Home10:10 PM EDTAngels<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 62%LAA 38%21% → 16% – 25%Playoffs Sat 26 Sep · Home9:40 PM EDTAngels<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 62%LAA 38%21% → 16% – 23%Playoffs Sun 27 Sep · Home3:10 PM EDTAngels<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 62%LAA 38%16% → 7% – 16%Division

History

Final · Away19 AugMilwaukee5Seattle▲ +7714% → 21%Playoffs Final · Away18 AugMilwaukee22Seattle▼ -5017% → 12%Playoffs Final · Away16 AugHouston2Seattle±0311% → 11%Playoffs

All results127 played

Final · Away19 AugMilwaukee5Seattle▲ +7714% → 21%Playoffs Final · Away18 AugMilwaukee22Seattle▼ -5017% → 12%Playoffs Final · Away16 AugHouston2Seattle±0311% → 11%Playoffs Final · Away15 AugHouston5Seattle±0107% → 7%Playoffs Final · Away14 AugHouston10Seattle▼ -279% → 7%Playoffs Final · Away13 AugYankees0Seattle▲ +216% → 8%Playoffs Final · Away12 AugYankees10Seattle±057% → 7%Playoffs Final · Away11 AugYankees4Seattle±018% → 8%Playoffs Final · Home9 AugTampa Bay4Seattle▼ -1112% → 11%Playoffs Final · Home8 AugTampa Bay3Seattle▲ +1215% → 16%Playoffs Final · Home7 AugTampa Bay2Seattle▲ +1121% → 22%Playoffs Final · Home6 AugDetroit11Seattle±0029% → 29%Playoffs Final · Home5 AugDetroit2Seattle▼ -2423% → 21%Playoffs Final · Home4 AugDetroit8Seattle▲ +3027% → 30%Playoffs Final · Home2 AugMinnesota6Seattle±0722% → 22%Playoffs Final · Home1 AugMinnesota3Seattle±0418% → 18%Playoffs Final · Home31 JulMinnesota5Seattle▼ -1324% → 23%Playoffs Final · Away30 JulDodgers6Seattle▼ -4229% → 25%Playoffs Final · Away29 JulDodgers4Seattle▼ -5235% → 30%Playoffs Final · Away28 JulDodgers6Seattle▼ -1729% → 28%Playoffs Final · Away27 JulTexas7Seattle▼ -7338% → 31%Playoffs Final · Away26 JulTexas4Seattle▲ +11627% → 38%Playoffs Final · Away25 JulTexas7Seattle±0136% → 36%Playoffs Final · Away24 JulTexas5Seattle±0444% → 44%Playoffs Final · Home22 JulCincinnati5Seattle▼ -7351% → 44%Playoffs Final · Home21 JulCincinnati4Seattle▼ -1261% → 60%Playoffs Final · Home20 JulCincinnati0Seattle8 Final · Home19 JulSan Francisco3Seattle6 Final · Home18 JulSan Francisco3Seattle4 Final · Home17 JulSan Francisco7Seattle0 Final · Away12 JulTampa Bay2Seattle8 Final · Away11 JulTampa Bay6Seattle1 Final · Away10 JulTampa Bay7Seattle2 Final · Away9 JulMiami8Seattle4 Final · Away8 JulMiami2Seattle0 Final · Away7 JulMiami6Seattle5 Final · Home5 JulToronto0Seattle4 Final · Home4 JulToronto0Seattle11 Final · Home3 JulToronto2Seattle0 Final · Home2 JulAngels0Seattle1 Final · Home30 JunAngels3Seattle8 Final · Home29 JunAngels2Seattle6 Final · Away28 JunCleveland6Seattle5 Final · Away27 JunCleveland4Seattle3 Final · Away26 JunCleveland1Seattle3 Final · Away25 JunPittsburgh5Seattle1 Final · Away24 JunPittsburgh11Seattle1 Final · Away23 JunPittsburgh2Seattle3 Final · Home21 JunBoston1Seattle3 Final · Home20 JunBoston5Seattle1 Final · Home19 JunBoston6Seattle2 Final · Home18 JunBaltimore0Seattle3 Final · Home17 JunBaltimore5Seattle3 Final · Home16 JunBaltimore1Seattle3 Final · Away14 JunWashington10Seattle1 Final · Away13 JunWashington8Seattle3 Final · Away12 JunWashington2Seattle10 Final · Away11 JunBaltimore7Seattle5 Final · Away10 JunBaltimore7Seattle2 Final · Away9 JunBaltimore5Seattle6 Final · Away8 JunBaltimore3Seattle6 Final · Away7 JunDetroit5Seattle4 Final · Away6 JunDetroit0Seattle4 Final · Away5 JunDetroit7Seattle3 Final · Home3 JunMets7Seattle1 Final · Home2 JunMets3Seattle8 Final · Home1 JunMets2Seattle3 Final · Home31 MayArizona2Seattle3 Final · Home30 MayArizona1Seattle5 Final · Home29 MayArizona6Seattle7 Final · Away27 MayAthletics1Seattle9 Final · Away26 MayAthletics1Seattle4 Final · Away25 MayAthletics2Seattle9 Final · Away24 MayKansas City8Seattle6 Final · Away23 MayKansas City5Seattle0 Final · Away22 MayKansas City0Seattle2 Final · Home20 MayWhite Sox4Seattle5 Final · Home19 MayWhite Sox2Seattle1 Final · Home18 MayWhite Sox1Seattle6 Final · Home17 MaySan Diego8Seattle3 Final · Home16 MaySan Diego7Seattle4 Final · Home15 MaySan Diego2Seattle0 Final · Away14 MayHouston3Seattle8 Final · Away13 MayHouston4Seattle3 Final · Away12 MayHouston2Seattle10 Final · Away11 MayHouston1Seattle3 Final · Away10 MayWhite Sox2Seattle1 Final · Away9 MayWhite Sox6Seattle1 Final · Away8 MayWhite Sox8Seattle12 Final · Home6 MayAtlanta1Seattle3 Final · Home5 MayAtlanta3Seattle2 Final · Home4 MayAtlanta4Seattle5 Final · Home3 MayKansas City4Seattle1 Final · Home2 MayKansas City3Seattle2 Final · Home1 MayKansas City7Seattle6 Final · Away29 AprMinnesota3Seattle5 Final · Away28 AprMinnesota1Seattle7 Final · Away27 AprMinnesota11Seattle4 Final · Away26 AprSt. Louis2Seattle3 Final · Away25 AprSt. Louis9Seattle11 Final · Away24 AprSt. Louis2Seattle3 Final · Home22 AprAthletics4Seattle5 Final · Home21 AprAthletics5Seattle2 Final · Home20 AprAthletics6Seattle4 Final · Home19 AprTexas2Seattle5 Final · Home18 AprTexas3Seattle7 Final · Home17 AprTexas5Seattle0 Final · Away16 AprSan Diego5Seattle2 Final · Away15 AprSan Diego7Seattle6 Final · Away14 AprSan Diego4Seattle1 Final · Home13 AprHouston2Seattle6 Final · Home12 AprHouston1Seattle6 Final · Home11 AprHouston7Seattle8 Final · Home10 AprHouston6Seattle9 Final · Away8 AprTexas3Seattle0 Final · Away7 AprTexas3Seattle2 Final · Away6 AprTexas2Seattle1 Final · Away5 AprAngels8Seattle7 Final · Away4 AprAngels1Seattle0 Final · Away3 AprAngels1Seattle3 Final · Home1 AprYankees5Seattle3 Final · Home31 MarYankees5Seattle0 Final · Home30 MarYankees1Seattle2 Final · Home29 MarCleveland0Seattle8 Final · Home28 MarCleveland6Seattle5 Final · Home27 MarCleveland1Seattle5 Final · Home26 MarCleveland6Seattle4

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye3%

Seattle 82+ wins

Division Series

2SeattleHomeWild Card Series winner3 Cleveland or 6 Toronto

Alongside it: 1 Tampa Bay v Wild Card Series winner

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 530. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Tampa Bay	96	66
2	Seattle	84	78
3	Cleveland	83	79
4	Yankees	93	69
5	Boston	87	75
6	Toronto	84	78
-	Detroit	83	79
-	Houston	82	80
-	White Sox	82	80

Win the division, host the Wild Card Series13%

Seattle 79+ wins

Wild Card Series

3SeattleHome6Baltimore

Alongside it: 4 Boston v 5 Yankees

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,691. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Tampa Bay	94	68
2	White Sox	86	76
3	Seattle	82	80
4	Boston	87	75
5	Yankees	86	76
6	Baltimore	85	77
-	Minnesota	82	80
-	Houston	79	83

Wild Card berth, host the Wild Card SeriesNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Wild Card berth, on the road4%

Seattle 80+ wins

Wild Card Series

3White SoxHome6Seattle

Alongside it: 4 Yankees v 5 Boston

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 895. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Tampa Bay	93	69
2	Houston	88	74
3	White Sox	87	75
4	Yankees	92	70
5	Boston	89	73
6	Seattle	82	80
-	Toronto	79	83
-	Minnesota	79	83

Miss the postseason79%

Seattle under 83 wins

80% of this route
- below TorontoToronto under 85 wins (90%)
20% of this route
- above TorontoToronto 1+ game back (>99%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 12,678. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Tampa Bay	96	66
2	Minnesota	85	77
3	Houston	82	80
4	Yankees	89	73
5	Boston	85	77
6	Texas	82	80
-	Toronto	81	81
-	Cleveland	79	83
-	Seattle	77	85