MLB · 2026

15th by playoff odds30 clubs

Toronto

4th · 62-66

Playoffs26%

Elimination number

The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.

32

Lose the next 32 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upTomorrow · Away1:10 PM EDTToronto26%PlayoffsTampa Bay>99%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 57%TOR 43%Win → 23% · Loss → 17%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Away19 AugTampa Bay7Toronto▼ -6632% → 26%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division<1%

Bye<1%

Pennant3%

World Series1%

4th in the table · 15th by playoff odds.

AL East finish

1st2nd3rd4th5th

1st · division winner

Most likely 4th. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

American League finish

1st6th · playoff line15th

Most likely 6th. The top 6 in the league make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Tomorrow · Away1:10 PM EDTToronto26%PlayoffsTampa Bay>99%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 57%TOR 43%Win → 23% · Loss → 17%Playoffs

Upcoming

Friday · Away7:05 PM EDTYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 58%TOR 42%26% → 16% – 23%Playoffs Saturday · Away1:35 PM EDTYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 58%TOR 42%26% → 16% – 23%Playoffs Sunday · Away1:35 PM EDTYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 58%TOR 42%26% → 16% – 23%Playoffs

Full schedule34 to play

Tomorrow · Away1:10 PM EDTTampa Bay>99%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 57%TOR 43%26% → 17% – 23%Playoffs Friday · Away7:05 PM EDTYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 58%TOR 42%26% → 16% – 23%Playoffs Saturday · Away1:35 PM EDTYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 58%TOR 42%26% → 16% – 23%Playoffs Sunday · Away1:35 PM EDTYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 58%TOR 42%26% → 16% – 23%Playoffs Tuesday · Home7:07 PM EDTKansas City<1%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 60%KC 40%26% → 14% – 21%Playoffs Wed 26 Aug · Home7:07 PM EDTKansas City<1%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 60%KC 40%26% → 14% – 20%Playoffs Thu 27 Aug · Home7:07 PM EDTKansas City<1%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 60%KC 40%26% → 14% – 21%Playoffs Fri 28 Aug · Home7:15 PM EDTSeattle21%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 56%SEA 44%26% → 14% – 22%Playoffs Sat 29 Aug · Home3:07 PM EDTSeattle21%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 56%SEA 44%26% → 14% – 22%Playoffs Sun 30 Aug · Home1:37 PM EDTSeattle21%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 56%SEA 44%26% → 14% – 22%Playoffs Tue 1 Sep · Away6:40 PM EDTCleveland19%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 50%TOR 50%26% → 15% – 24%Playoffs Wed 2 Sep · Away6:40 PM EDTCleveland19%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 50%TOR 50%26% → 15% – 24%Playoffs Thu 3 Sep · Away1:10 PM EDTCleveland19%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 50%TOR 50%26% → 15% – 25%Playoffs Fri 4 Sep · Away8:10 PM EDTKansas City<1%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 47%TOR 53%26% → 16% – 24%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Away7:10 PM EDTKansas City<1%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 47%TOR 53%26% → 16% – 24%Playoffs Sun 6 Sep · Away2:10 PM EDTKansas City<1%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 47%TOR 53%26% → 16% – 24%Playoffs Mon 7 Sep · Away10:05 PM EDTAthletics<1%PlayoffsMatch resultATH 41%TOR 59%26% → 16% – 25%Playoffs Tue 8 Sep · Away9:40 PM EDTAthletics<1%PlayoffsMatch resultATH 41%TOR 59%26% → 16% – 24%Playoffs Wed 9 Sep · Away3:05 PM EDTAthletics<1%PlayoffsMatch resultATH 41%TOR 59%26% → 16% – 24%Playoffs Fri 11 Sep · Home7:07 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 56%BAL 44%26% → 17% – 27%Playoffs Sat 12 Sep · Home3:07 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 56%BAL 44%26% → 16% – 25%Playoffs Sun 13 Sep · Home1:37 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 56%BAL 44%26% → 16% – 25%Playoffs Mon 14 Sep · Home7:07 PM EDTDetroit14%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 56%DET 44%26% → 16% – 26%Playoffs Tue 15 Sep · Home7:07 PM EDTDetroit14%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 56%DET 44%26% → 16% – 27%Playoffs Wed 16 Sep · Home3:07 PM EDTDetroit14%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 56%DET 44%26% → 17% – 27%Playoffs Fri 18 Sep · Away8:05 PM EDTTexas34%PlayoffsMatch resultTEX 50%TOR 50%26% → 18% – 27%Playoffs Sat 19 Sep · Away7:05 PM EDTTexas34%PlayoffsMatch resultTEX 50%TOR 50%26% → 18% – 28%Playoffs Sun 20 Sep · Away2:35 PM EDTTexas34%PlayoffsMatch resultTEX 50%TOR 50%26% → 18% – 28%Playoffs Mon 21 Sep · Away6:35 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 51%TOR 49%26% → 19% – 30%Playoffs Tue 22 Sep · Away6:35 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 51%TOR 49%26% → 19% – 30%Playoffs Wed 23 Sep · Away6:35 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 51%TOR 49%26% → 18% – 29%Playoffs Fri 25 Sep · Home7:07 PM EDTCincinnati<1%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 57%CIN 43%26% → 17% – 26%Playoffs Sat 26 Sep · Home3:07 PM EDTCincinnati<1%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 57%CIN 43%26% → 20% – 29%Playoffs Sun 27 Sep · Home3:07 PM EDTCincinnati<1%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 57%CIN 43%26% → 19% – 28%Playoffs

History

Final · Away19 AugTampa Bay7Toronto▼ -6632% → 26%Playoffs Final · Away18 AugTampa Bay5Toronto▲ +71024% → 31%Playoffs Final · Home16 AugYankees4Toronto▲ +1329% → 30%Playoffs

All results128 played

Final · Away19 AugTampa Bay7Toronto▼ -6632% → 26%Playoffs Final · Away18 AugTampa Bay5Toronto▲ +71024% → 31%Playoffs Final · Home16 AugYankees4Toronto▲ +1329% → 30%Playoffs Final · Home15 AugYankees1Toronto±0425% → 25%Playoffs Final · Home14 AugYankees1Toronto±0318% → 18%Playoffs Final · Home13 AugBoston7Toronto±0022% → 22%Playoffs Final · Home12 AugBoston4Toronto±0616% → 16%Playoffs Final · Home11 AugBoston3Toronto±0510% → 10%Playoffs Final · Home10 AugBoston1Toronto±028% → 8%Playoffs Final · Away9 AugPhiladelphia7Toronto▼ -1610% → 9%Playoffs Final · Away8 AugPhiladelphia5Toronto▼ -177% → 6%Playoffs Final · Away7 AugPhiladelphia4Toronto▲ +154% → 5%Playoffs Final · Away6 AugCubs3Toronto±026% → 6%Playoffs Final · Away5 AugHouston4Toronto±054% → 4%Playoffs Final · Away4 AugHouston7Toronto▼ -126% → 5%Playoffs Final · Away3 AugHouston1Toronto±033% → 3%Playoffs Final · Home2 AugSt. Louis5Toronto▼ -116% → 5%Playoffs Final · Home1 AugSt. Louis1Toronto±054% → 4%Playoffs Final · Home31 JulSt. Louis1Toronto±033% → 3%Playoffs Final · Away29 JulWashington2Toronto±053% → 3%Playoffs Final · Away28 JulWashington8Toronto±064% → 4%Playoffs Final · Away27 JulWashington2Toronto±033% → 3%Playoffs Final · Away26 JulBoston6Toronto±014% → 4%Playoffs Final · Away25 JulBoston0Toronto▲ +163% → 4%Playoffs Final · Away24 JulBoston6Toronto▼ -144% → 3%Playoffs Final · Home23 JulTampa Bay1Toronto±033% → 3%Playoffs Final · Home22 JulTampa Bay4Toronto▼ -124% → 3%Playoffs Final · Home21 JulTampa Bay12Toronto▼ -226% → 4%Playoffs Final · Home20 JulTampa Bay7Toronto1 Final · Home19 JulWhite Sox3Toronto0 Final · Home18 JulWhite Sox0Toronto1 Final · Home17 JulWhite Sox12Toronto4 Final · Away12 JulSan Diego5Toronto4 Final · Away11 JulSan Diego8Toronto7 Final · Away10 JulSan Diego3Toronto5 Final · Away8 JulSan Francisco0Toronto10 Final · Away7 JulSan Francisco3Toronto9 Final · Away6 JulSan Francisco10Toronto1 Final · Away5 JulSeattle4Toronto0 Final · Away4 JulSeattle11Toronto0 Final · Away3 JulSeattle0Toronto2 Final · Home1 JulMets3Toronto9 Final · Home30 JunMets3Toronto0 Final · Home29 JunMets1Toronto2 Final · Home28 JunTexas3Toronto2 Final · Home27 JunTexas7Toronto4 Final · Home26 JunTexas5Toronto4 Final · Home25 JunTexas6Toronto5 Final · Home24 JunHouston3Toronto1 Final · Home23 JunHouston9Toronto7 Final · Home22 JunHouston2Toronto4 Final · Away20 JunCubs6Toronto8 Final · Away19 JunCubs16Toronto2 Final · Away18 JunBoston3Toronto4 Final · Away17 JunBoston0Toronto3 Final · Away16 JunBoston1Toronto6 Final · Home14 JunYankees8Toronto3 Final · Home13 JunYankees3Toronto1 Final · Home12 JunYankees5Toronto8 Final · Home10 JunPhiladelphia7Toronto4 Final · Home9 JunPhiladelphia2Toronto3 Final · Home8 JunPhiladelphia5Toronto2 Final · Home7 JunBaltimore4Toronto6 Final · Home6 JunBaltimore4Toronto6 Final · Home5 JunBaltimore13Toronto3 Final · Away4 JunAtlanta2Toronto7 Final · Away3 JunAtlanta7Toronto3 Final · Away2 JunAtlanta4Toronto3 Final · Away31 MayBaltimore9Toronto5 Final · Away30 MayBaltimore6Toronto5 Final · Away29 MayBaltimore5Toronto6 Final · Away28 MayBaltimore1Toronto2 Final · Home27 MayMiami1Toronto2 Final · Home26 MayMiami1Toronto8 Final · Home25 MayMiami8Toronto2 Final · Home24 MayPittsburgh4Toronto1 Final · Home23 MayPittsburgh2Toronto5 Final · Home22 MayPittsburgh2Toronto6 Final · Away21 MayYankees0Toronto2 Final · Away20 MayYankees1Toronto2 Final · Away19 MayYankees5Toronto4 Final · Away18 MayYankees7Toronto6 Final · Away17 MayDetroit1Toronto4 Final · Away16 MayDetroit1Toronto2 Final · Away15 MayDetroit3Toronto2 Final · Home13 MayTampa Bay3Toronto5 Final · Home12 MayTampa Bay7Toronto6 Final · Home11 MayTampa Bay8Toronto5 Final · Home10 MayAngels6Toronto1 Final · Home9 MayAngels1Toronto14 Final · Home8 MayAngels0Toronto2 Final · Away6 MayTampa Bay3Toronto0 Final · Away5 MayTampa Bay4Toronto3 Final · Away4 MayTampa Bay5Toronto1 Final · Away3 MayMinnesota4Toronto3 Final · Away2 MayMinnesota4Toronto11 Final · Away1 MayMinnesota3Toronto7 Final · Away30 AprMinnesota7Toronto1 Final · Home29 AprBoston1Toronto8 Final · Home28 AprBoston0Toronto3 Final · Home27 AprBoston5Toronto0 Final · Home26 AprCleveland2Toronto4 Final · Home25 AprCleveland3Toronto5 Final · Home24 AprCleveland8Toronto6 Final · Away22 AprAngels7Toronto3 Final · Away21 AprAngels2Toronto4 Final · Away20 AprAngels2Toronto5 Final · Away19 AprArizona4Toronto10 Final · Away18 AprArizona6Toronto2 Final · Away17 AprArizona6Toronto3 Final · Away16 AprMilwaukee2Toronto1 Final · Away15 AprMilwaukee2Toronto1 Final · Away14 AprMilwaukee7Toronto9 Final · Home12 AprMinnesota8Toronto2 Final · Home11 AprMinnesota7Toronto4 Final · Home10 AprMinnesota4Toronto10 Final · Home8 AprDodgers3Toronto4 Final · Home7 AprDodgers4Toronto1 Final · Home6 AprDodgers14Toronto2 Final · Away5 AprWhite Sox3Toronto0 Final · Away4 AprWhite Sox6Toronto3 Final · Away3 AprWhite Sox5Toronto4 Final · Home1 AprColorado2Toronto1 Final · Home31 MarColorado1Toronto5 Final · Home30 MarColorado14Toronto5 Final · Home29 MarAthletics2Toronto5 Final · Home28 MarAthletics7Toronto8 Final · Home27 MarAthletics2Toronto3

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round byeNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Win the division, host the Wild Card SeriesNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Wild Card berth, host the Wild Card Series<1%

A possible long-shot route: 34 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Toronto 85+ wins

Wild Card berth, on the road26%

Toronto 81+ wins

Wild Card Series

3SeattleHome6Toronto

Alongside it: 4 Boston v 5 Yankees

87% of this route
- above MinnesotaMinnesota out of the postseason (99%) · Minnesota 1+ game back (>99%)
13% of this route
- below MinnesotaMinnesota under 87 wins (95%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,576. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Tampa Bay	95	67
2	White Sox	85	77
3	Seattle	78	84
4	Boston	89	73
5	Yankees	89	73
6	Toronto	83	79
-	Cleveland	79	83
-	Minnesota	79	83

Miss the postseason74%

Toronto under 83 wins

43% of this route
- below MinnesotaMinnesota under 85 wins (92%)
- below ClevelandCleveland under 85 wins (95%)
31% of this route
- above MinnesotaMinnesota 1+ game back (>99%)
26% of this route
- below MinnesotaMinnesota under 86 wins (93%)
- above ClevelandCleveland 1+ game back (>99%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 6,283. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Tampa Bay	94	68
2	White Sox	84	78
3	Texas	84	78
4	Yankees	93	69
5	Boston	85	77
6	Baltimore	82	80
-	Cleveland	81	81
-	Seattle	81	81
-	Minnesota	81	81
-	Toronto	77	85