MLB · 2026

7th by playoff odds30 clubs

Boston

3rd · 68-59

Playoffs97%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

32

Win the next 32 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Next upFriday · Home7:10 PM EDTBoston97%PlayoffsSan Francisco<1%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 66%SF 34%Win → 99% · Loss → 97%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Home19 AugArizona7Boston±0698% → 98%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division3%

Bye3%

Pennant14%

World Series7%

3rd in the table · 7th by playoff odds.

AL East finish

1st2nd3rd4th5th

1st · division winner

Most likely 3rd. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

American League finish

1st6th · playoff line15th

Most likely 5th. The top 6 in the league make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Friday · Home7:10 PM EDTBoston97%PlayoffsSan Francisco<1%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 66%SF 34%Win → 99% · Loss → 97%Playoffs

Upcoming

Saturday · Home7:15 PM EDTSan Francisco<1%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 66%SF 34%3% → 1% – 2%Division Sunday · Home3:15 PM EDTSan Francisco<1%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 66%SF 34%3% → 1% – 3%Division Monday · Away6:40 PM EDTMiami4%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 48%BOS 52%3% → 2% – 3%Division

Full schedule35 to play

Friday · Home7:10 PM EDTSan Francisco<1%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 66%SF 34%97% → 97% – 99%Playoffs Saturday · Home7:15 PM EDTSan Francisco<1%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 66%SF 34%3% → 1% – 2%Division Sunday · Home3:15 PM EDTSan Francisco<1%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 66%SF 34%3% → 1% – 3%Division Monday · Away6:40 PM EDTMiami4%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 48%BOS 52%3% → 2% – 3%Division Tuesday · Away6:40 PM EDTMiami4%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 48%BOS 52%3% → 2% – 3%Division Wed 26 Aug · Away6:40 PM EDTMiami4%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 48%BOS 52%3% → 2% – 3%Division Fri 28 Aug · Away7:15 PM EDTYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 54%BOS 46%3% → 2% – 4%Division Sat 29 Aug · Away7:15 PM EDTYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 54%BOS 46%3% → 2% – 4%Division Sun 30 Aug · Away1:35 PM EDTYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 54%BOS 46%3% → 2% – 5%Division Mon 31 Aug · Home6:45 PM EDTSeattle21%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 60%SEA 40%3% → 3% – 5%Division Tue 1 Sep · Home6:45 PM EDTSeattle21%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 60%SEA 40%3% → 2% – 4%Division Wed 2 Sep · Home4:10 PM EDTSeattle21%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 60%SEA 40%3% → 3% – 5%Division Thu 3 Sep · Away7:15 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%BOS 53%3% → 3% – 4%Division Fri 4 Sep · Away7:05 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%BOS 53%3% → 3% – 5%Division Sat 5 Sep · Away7:05 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%BOS 53%3% → 3% – 5%Division Sun 6 Sep · Away1:35 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%BOS 53%3% → 3% – 5%Division Mon 7 Sep · Home1:35 PM EDTAngels<1%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 68%LAA 32%3% → 3% – 5%Division Tue 8 Sep · Home6:45 PM EDTAngels<1%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 68%LAA 32%3% → 3% – 5%Division Wed 9 Sep · Home6:45 PM EDTAngels<1%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 68%LAA 32%3% → 3% – 4%Division Fri 11 Sep · Home7:10 PM EDTKansas City<1%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 64%KC 36%3% → 3% – 4%Division Sat 12 Sep · Home4:10 PM EDTKansas City<1%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 64%KC 36%3% → 2% – 4%Division Sun 13 Sep · Home1:35 PM EDTKansas City<1%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 64%KC 36%97% → 97% – 98%Playoffs Tue 15 Sep · Away8:05 PM EDTTexas34%PlayoffsMatch resultTEX 46%BOS 54%97% → 97% – 98%Playoffs Wed 16 Sep · Away8:05 PM EDTTexas34%PlayoffsMatch resultTEX 46%BOS 54%97% → 97% – 98%Playoffs Thu 17 Sep · Away8:05 PM EDTTexas34%PlayoffsMatch resultTEX 46%BOS 54%3% → 2% – 4%Division Fri 18 Sep · Away7:10 PM EDTTampa Bay>99%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 53%BOS 47%3% → 1% – 4%Division Sat 19 Sep · Away4:10 PM EDTTampa Bay>99%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 53%BOS 47%3% → 2% – 4%Division Sun 20 Sep · Away1:40 PM EDTTampa Bay>99%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 53%BOS 47%3% → 2% – 5%Division Tue 22 Sep · Home6:45 PM EDTCleveland19%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 61%CLE 39%3% → 3% – 5%Division Wed 23 Sep · Home7:10 PM EDTCleveland19%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 61%CLE 39%97% → 96% – 98%Playoffs Thu 24 Sep · Home6:45 PM EDTCleveland19%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 61%CLE 39%3% → 3% – 5%Division Fri 25 Sep · Home7:10 PM EDTCubs99%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 53%CHC 47%3% → 3% – 6%Division Sat 26 Sep · Home7:15 PM EDTCubs99%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 53%CHC 47%3% → 3% – 7%Division Sun 27 Sep · Home3:05 PM EDTCubs99%PlayoffsMatch resultBOS 53%CHC 47%3% → 4% – 7%Division Postponed · AwayDate TBDYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 54%BOS 46%3% → 1% – 3%Division

History

Final · Home19 AugArizona7Boston±0698% → 98%Playoffs Final · Home18 AugArizona4Boston▲ +1997% → 98%Playoffs Final · Home17 AugArizona1Boston▲ +11196% → 97%Playoffs

All results127 played

Final · Home19 AugArizona7Boston±0698% → 98%Playoffs Final · Home18 AugArizona4Boston▲ +1997% → 98%Playoffs Final · Home17 AugArizona1Boston▲ +11196% → 97%Playoffs Final · Away16 AugPittsburgh8Boston±0396% → 96%Playoffs Final · Away15 AugPittsburgh0Boston±0496% → 96%Playoffs Final · Away14 AugPittsburgh8Boston±0497% → 97%Playoffs Final · Away13 AugToronto0Boston±0794% → 94%Playoffs Final · Away12 AugToronto6Boston±0496% → 96%Playoffs Final · Away11 AugToronto5Boston±0397% → 97%Playoffs Final · Away10 AugToronto2Boston±0198% → 98%Playoffs Final · Home9 AugAthletics4Boston±0399% → 99%Playoffs Final · Home8 AugAthletics7Boston±0399% → 99%Playoffs Final · Home7 AugAthletics1Boston±01399% → 99%Playoffs Final · Home6 AugWhite Sox11Boston±01299% → 99%Playoffs Final · Home5 AugWhite Sox0Boston▼ -1498% → 97%Playoffs Final · Home4 AugWhite Sox2Boston±01496% → 96%Playoffs Final · Away2 AugDodgers4Boston±0894% → 94%Playoffs Final · Away1 AugDodgers2Boston▼ -1391% → 90%Playoffs Final · Away31 JulDodgers4Boston▲ +1987% → 88%Playoffs Final · Away30 JulAthletics4Boston±0585% → 85%Playoffs Final · Away29 JulAthletics2Boston▲ +2481% → 83%Playoffs Final · Away28 JulAthletics4Boston▼ -4387% → 83%Playoffs Final · Away27 JulAthletics2Boston±0485% → 85%Playoffs Final · Home26 JulToronto1Boston▲ +2678% → 80%Playoffs Final · Home25 JulToronto6Boston▼ -5085% → 80%Playoffs Final · Home24 JulToronto4Boston▼ -1679% → 78%Playoffs Final · Home22 JulBaltimore5Boston▼ -1181% → 80%Playoffs Final · Home22 JulBaltimore3Boston±0681% → 81%Playoffs Final · Home20 JulBaltimore5Boston6 Final · Home19 JulTampa Bay1Boston6 Final · Home18 JulTampa Bay6Boston7 Final · Home17 JulTampa Bay3Boston5 Final · Home17 JulTampa Bay0Boston10 Final · Away12 JulMets2Boston3 Final · Away11 JulMets0Boston4 Final · Away10 JulMets2Boston6 Final · Away9 JulWhite Sox1Boston2 Final · Away8 JulWhite Sox0Boston5 Final · Away7 JulWhite Sox1Boston8 Final · Away5 JulAngels5Boston7 Final · Away4 JulAngels1Boston8 Final · Away3 JulAngels2Boston5 Final · Home1 JulWashington10Boston2 Final · Home30 JunWashington8Boston1 Final · Home29 JunWashington3Boston6 Final · Home28 JunYankees4Boston5 Final · Home27 JunYankees1Boston4 Final · Home26 JunYankees1Boston6 Final · Home25 JunYankees3Boston6 Final · Away24 JunColorado8Boston6 Final · Away23 JunColorado2Boston5 Final · Away22 JunColorado3Boston2 Final · Away21 JunSeattle3Boston1 Final · Away20 JunSeattle1Boston5 Final · Away19 JunSeattle2Boston6 Final · Home18 JunToronto4Boston3 Final · Home17 JunToronto3Boston0 Final · Home16 JunToronto6Boston1 Final · Home14 JunTexas6Boston4 Final · Home13 JunTexas3Boston6 Final · Home12 JunTexas1Boston10 Final · Away10 JunTampa Bay7Boston5 Final · Away9 JunTampa Bay4Boston3 Final · Away8 JunTampa Bay3Boston1 Final · Away7 JunYankees6Boston1 Final · Away5 JunYankees3Boston5 Final · Home4 JunBaltimore8Boston2 Final · Home3 JunBaltimore1Boston8 Final · Home2 JunBaltimore4Boston2 Final · Away31 MayCleveland4Boston9 Final · Away30 MayCleveland1Boston9 Final · Away29 MayCleveland4Boston3 Final · Home28 MayAtlanta10Boston2 Final · Home27 MayAtlanta0Boston8 Final · Home26 MayAtlanta7Boston6 Final · Home24 MayMinnesota6Boston5 Final · Home23 MayMinnesota4Boston2 Final · Home22 MayMinnesota8Boston6 Final · Away20 MayKansas City3Boston4 Final · Away19 MayKansas City1Boston7 Final · Away18 MayKansas City1Boston3 Final · Away17 MayAtlanta8Boston1 Final · Away16 MayAtlanta2Boston3 Final · Away15 MayAtlanta3Boston2 Final · Home14 MayPhiladelphia3Boston1 Final · Home13 MayPhiladelphia1Boston3 Final · Home12 MayPhiladelphia2Boston1 Final · Home10 MayTampa Bay4Boston1 Final · Home8 MayTampa Bay0Boston2 Final · Home7 MayTampa Bay8Boston4 Final · Away6 MayDetroit0Boston4 Final · Away5 MayDetroit3Boston10 Final · Away4 MayDetroit4Boston5 Final · Home3 MayHouston3Boston1 Final · Home2 MayHouston6Boston3 Final · Home1 MayHouston1Boston3 Final · Away29 AprToronto8Boston1 Final · Away28 AprToronto3Boston0 Final · Away27 AprToronto0Boston5 Final · Away26 AprBaltimore3Boston5 Final · Away25 AprBaltimore1Boston17 Final · Away24 AprBaltimore10Boston3 Final · Home23 AprYankees4Boston2 Final · Home22 AprYankees4Boston1 Final · Home21 AprYankees4Boston0 Final · Home20 AprDetroit6Boston8 Final · Home19 AprDetroit6Boston2 Final · Home18 AprDetroit4Boston1 Final · Home17 AprDetroit0Boston1 Final · Away15 AprMinnesota5Boston9 Final · Away14 AprMinnesota6Boston0 Final · Away13 AprMinnesota13Boston6 Final · Away12 AprSt. Louis3Boston9 Final · Away11 AprSt. Louis1Boston7 Final · Away10 AprSt. Louis3Boston2 Final · Home8 AprMilwaukee0Boston5 Final · Home7 AprMilwaukee2Boston3 Final · Home6 AprMilwaukee8Boston6 Final · Home5 AprSan Diego8Boston6 Final · Home4 AprSan Diego3Boston2 Final · Home3 AprSan Diego2Boston5 Final · Away1 AprHouston6Boston4 Final · Away31 MarHouston9Boston2 Final · Away30 MarHouston8Boston1 Final · Away29 MarCincinnati3Boston2 Final · Away28 MarCincinnati6Boston5 Final · Away26 MarCincinnati0Boston3

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye3%

Boston 91+ wins

Division Series

1BostonHomeWild Card Series winner4 Tampa Bay or 5 Yankees

Alongside it: 2 White Sox v Wild Card Series winner

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 510. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Boston	93	69
2	White Sox	83	79
3	Houston	83	79
4	Tampa Bay	91	71
5	Yankees	90	72
6	Texas	81	81
-	Baltimore	79	83
-	Toronto	79	83

Win the division, host the Wild Card SeriesNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Wild Card berth, host the Wild Card Series20%

Boston 88+ wins

Wild Card Series

4BostonHome5Yankees

Alongside it: 3 Houston v 6 Toronto

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,993. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Tampa Bay	96	66
2	White Sox	90	72
3	Houston	80	82
4	Boston	90	72
5	Yankees	89	73
6	Toronto	85	77
-	Detroit	81	81
-	Seattle	79	83

Wild Card berth, on the road75%

Boston 84+ wins

Wild Card Series

4YankeesHome5Boston

Alongside it: 3 White Sox v 6 Toronto

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 14,945. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Tampa Bay	97	65
2	Texas	84	78
3	White Sox	82	80
4	Yankees	92	70
5	Boston	87	75
6	Toronto	85	77
-	Houston	83	79
-	Minnesota	81	81

Miss the postseason3%

Boston under 84 wins

58% of this route
- below TorontoToronto under 87 wins (96%)
42% of this route
- above TorontoToronto 1+ game back (>99%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 319. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Tampa Bay	93	69
2	White Sox	87	75
3	Texas	84	78
4	Yankees	92	70
5	Minnesota	83	79
6	Toronto	83	79
-	Boston	82	80
-	Seattle	82	80
-	Cleveland	80	82