MLB · 2026

20th by playoff odds30 clubs

Baltimore

5th · 61-66

Playoffs9%

Elimination number

The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.

33

Lose the next 33 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upTomorrow · Home6:35 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%NYY 53%Win → 12% · Loss → 8%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Home19 AugYankees5Baltimore▼ -3312% → 9%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division<1%

Bye<1%

Pennant1%

World Series<1%

5th in the table · 20th by playoff odds.

AL East finish

1st2nd3rd4th5th

1st · division winner

Most likely 5th. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

American League finish

1st6th · playoff line15th

Most likely 12th. The top 6 in the league make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Tomorrow · Home6:35 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%NYY 53%Win → 12% · Loss → 8%Playoffs

Upcoming

Friday · Home7:15 PM EDTTampa Bay>99%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%TB 53%9% → 7% – 12%Playoffs Saturday · Home7:05 PM EDTTampa Bay>99%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%TB 53%9% → 7% – 13%Playoffs Sunday · Home1:35 PM EDTTampa Bay>99%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%TB 53%9% → 7% – 13%Playoffs

Full schedule35 to play

Tomorrow · Home6:35 PM EDTYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%NYY 53%9% → 8% – 12%Playoffs Friday · Home7:15 PM EDTTampa Bay>99%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%TB 53%9% → 7% – 12%Playoffs Saturday · Home7:05 PM EDTTampa Bay>99%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%TB 53%9% → 7% – 13%Playoffs Sunday · Home1:35 PM EDTTampa Bay>99%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%TB 53%9% → 7% – 13%Playoffs Tuesday · Away7:45 PM EDTSt. Louis10%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 54%BAL 46%9% → 7% – 13%Playoffs Wed 26 Aug · Away7:45 PM EDTSt. Louis10%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 54%BAL 46%9% → 7% – 13%Playoffs Thu 27 Aug · Away2:15 PM EDTSt. Louis10%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 54%BAL 46%9% → 7% – 13%Playoffs Fri 28 Aug · Away9:40 PM EDTAthletics<1%PlayoffsMatch resultATH 44%BAL 56%9% → 7% – 12%Playoffs Sat 29 Aug · Away10:05 PM EDTAthletics<1%PlayoffsMatch resultATH 44%BAL 56%9% → 6% – 11%Playoffs Sun 30 Aug · Away4:05 PM EDTAthletics<1%PlayoffsMatch resultATH 44%BAL 56%9% → 7% – 12%Playoffs Mon 31 Aug · Away8:40 PM EDTColorado<1%PlayoffsMatch resultCOL 43%BAL 57%9% → 6% – 11%Playoffs Tue 1 Sep · Away8:40 PM EDTColorado<1%PlayoffsMatch resultCOL 43%BAL 57%9% → 6% – 11%Playoffs Wed 2 Sep · Away3:10 PM EDTColorado<1%PlayoffsMatch resultCOL 43%BAL 57%9% → 6% – 10%Playoffs Thu 3 Sep · Home7:15 PM EDTBoston97%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%BOS 53%9% → 6% – 12%Playoffs Fri 4 Sep · Home7:05 PM EDTBoston97%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%BOS 53%9% → 7% – 13%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Home7:05 PM EDTBoston97%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%BOS 53%9% → 7% – 11%Playoffs Sun 6 Sep · Home1:35 PM EDTBoston97%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%BOS 53%9% → 7% – 12%Playoffs Mon 7 Sep · Home1:35 PM EDTCleveland19%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 55%CLE 45%9% → 6% – 12%Playoffs Tue 8 Sep · Home6:35 PM EDTCleveland19%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 55%CLE 45%9% → 6% – 12%Playoffs Wed 9 Sep · Home6:35 PM EDTCleveland19%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 55%CLE 45%9% → 6% – 12%Playoffs Fri 11 Sep · Away7:07 PM EDTToronto26%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 56%BAL 44%9% → 7% – 12%Playoffs Sat 12 Sep · Away3:07 PM EDTToronto26%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 56%BAL 44%9% → 7% – 13%Playoffs Sun 13 Sep · Away1:37 PM EDTToronto26%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 56%BAL 44%9% → 8% – 14%Playoffs Mon 14 Sep · Away7:10 PM EDTMets<1%PlayoffsMatch resultNYM 53%BAL 47%9% → 8% – 14%Playoffs Tue 15 Sep · Away7:10 PM EDTMets<1%PlayoffsMatch resultNYM 53%BAL 47%9% → 7% – 13%Playoffs Wed 16 Sep · Away7:10 PM EDTMets<1%PlayoffsMatch resultNYM 53%BAL 47%9% → 6% – 12%Playoffs Fri 18 Sep · Home7:05 PM EDTMilwaukee>99%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 43%MIL 57%9% → 7% – 12%Playoffs Sat 19 Sep · Home4:05 PM EDTMilwaukee>99%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 43%MIL 57%9% → 6% – 13%Playoffs Sun 20 Sep · Home7:20 PM EDTMilwaukee>99%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 43%MIL 57%9% → 6% – 12%Playoffs Mon 21 Sep · Home6:35 PM EDTToronto26%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 51%TOR 49%9% → 5% – 12%Playoffs Tue 22 Sep · Home6:35 PM EDTToronto26%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 51%TOR 49%9% → 6% – 13%Playoffs Wed 23 Sep · Home6:35 PM EDTToronto26%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 51%TOR 49%9% → 7% – 15%Playoffs Fri 25 Sep · Away7:05 PM EDTYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 60%BAL 40%9% → 9% – 16%Playoffs Sat 26 Sep · Away7:15 PM EDTYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 60%BAL 40%9% → 9% – 16%Playoffs Sun 27 Sep · Away3:20 PM EDTYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 60%BAL 40%9% → 10% – 19%Playoffs

History

Final · Home19 AugYankees5Baltimore▼ -3312% → 9%Playoffs Final · Home18 AugYankees3Baltimore▼ -6117% → 11%Playoffs Final · Away17 AugTampa Bay7Baltimore▼ -5623% → 18%Playoffs

All results127 played

Final · Home19 AugYankees5Baltimore▼ -3312% → 9%Playoffs Final · Home18 AugYankees3Baltimore▼ -6117% → 11%Playoffs Final · Away17 AugTampa Bay7Baltimore▼ -5623% → 18%Playoffs Final · Away16 AugTampa Bay2Baltimore±01015% → 15%Playoffs Final · Away15 AugTampa Bay3Baltimore±0411% → 11%Playoffs Final · Away14 AugTampa Bay5Baltimore±068% → 8%Playoffs Final · Away12 AugMinnesota7Baltimore±0510% → 10%Playoffs Final · Away11 AugMinnesota2Baltimore±056% → 6%Playoffs Final · Away10 AugMinnesota9Baltimore▲ +1510% → 11%Playoffs Final · Away9 AugTexas5Baltimore▼ -1107% → 6%Playoffs Final · Away8 AugTexas5Baltimore▼ -1110% → 9%Playoffs Final · Away7 AugTexas2Baltimore▲ +1113% → 14%Playoffs Final · Home6 AugAngels4Baltimore±0119% → 19%Playoffs Final · Home5 AugAngels2Baltimore±0515% → 15%Playoffs Final · Home4 AugAngels1Baltimore±0312% → 12%Playoffs Final · Home2 AugPhiladelphia8Baltimore±0016% → 16%Playoffs Final · Home1 AugPhiladelphia5Baltimore▼ -1021% → 20%Playoffs Final · Home31 JulPhiladelphia4Baltimore±0616% → 16%Playoffs Final · Away29 JulDetroit9Baltimore▼ -11015% → 14%Playoffs Final · Away28 JulDetroit14Baltimore▼ -4018% → 14%Playoffs Final · Away27 JulDetroit5Baltimore±0815% → 15%Playoffs Final · Home26 JulAtlanta3Baltimore▲ +1219% → 20%Playoffs Final · Home25 JulAtlanta2Baltimore▲ +4315% → 19%Playoffs Final · Home24 JulAtlanta7Baltimore±0618% → 18%Playoffs Final · Away22 JulBoston1Baltimore▲ +1518% → 19%Playoffs Final · Away22 JulBoston6Baltimore▲ +2316% → 18%Playoffs Final · Away20 JulBoston6Baltimore5 Final · Away19 JulHouston2Baltimore5 Final · Away18 JulHouston2Baltimore4 Final · Away17 JulHouston2Baltimore3 Final · Home12 JulKansas City2Baltimore8 Final · Home11 JulKansas City1Baltimore6 Final · Home10 JulKansas City3Baltimore5 Final · Home9 JulCubs2Baltimore3 Final · Home8 JulCubs9Baltimore7 Final · Home7 JulCubs5Baltimore2 Final · Away5 JulCincinnati3Baltimore2 Final · Away4 JulCincinnati5Baltimore8 Final · Away3 JulCincinnati0Baltimore3 Final · Home1 JulWhite Sox1Baltimore6 Final · Home30 JunWhite Sox9Baltimore3 Final · Home29 JunWhite Sox8Baltimore2 Final · Home28 JunWashington6Baltimore4 Final · Home27 JunWashington4Baltimore3 Final · Home26 JunWashington1Baltimore3 Final · Away24 JunAngels7Baltimore6 Final · Away23 JunAngels5Baltimore1 Final · Away22 JunAngels1Baltimore6 Final · Away21 JunDodgers1Baltimore12 Final · Away20 JunDodgers2Baltimore3 Final · Away19 JunDodgers6Baltimore5 Final · Away18 JunSeattle3Baltimore0 Final · Away17 JunSeattle3Baltimore5 Final · Away16 JunSeattle3Baltimore1 Final · Home14 JunSan Diego5Baltimore2 Final · Home13 JunSan Diego9Baltimore3 Final · Home12 JunSan Diego3Baltimore7 Final · Home11 JunSeattle5Baltimore7 Final · Home10 JunSeattle2Baltimore7 Final · Home9 JunSeattle6Baltimore5 Final · Home8 JunSeattle6Baltimore3 Final · Away7 JunToronto6Baltimore4 Final · Away6 JunToronto6Baltimore4 Final · Away5 JunToronto3Baltimore13 Final · Away4 JunBoston2Baltimore8 Final · Away3 JunBoston8Baltimore1 Final · Away2 JunBoston2Baltimore4 Final · Home31 MayToronto5Baltimore9 Final · Home30 MayToronto5Baltimore6 Final · Home29 MayToronto6Baltimore5 Final · Home28 MayToronto2Baltimore1 Final · Home27 MayTampa Bay2Baltimore11 Final · Home26 MayTampa Bay1Baltimore6 Final · Home25 MayTampa Bay7Baltimore9 Final · Home24 MayDetroit4Baltimore1 Final · Home24 MayDetroit3Baltimore5 Final · Home22 MayDetroit4Baltimore7 Final · Away20 MayTampa Bay5Baltimore3 Final · Away19 MayTampa Bay4Baltimore1 Final · Away18 MayTampa Bay16Baltimore6 Final · Away17 MayWashington3Baltimore7 Final · Away16 MayWashington13Baltimore3 Final · Away15 MayWashington3Baltimore2 Final · Home13 MayYankees0Baltimore7 Final · Home12 MayYankees6Baltimore2 Final · Home11 MayYankees2Baltimore3 Final · Home10 MayAthletics1Baltimore2 Final · Home9 MayAthletics6Baltimore2 Final · Home8 MayAthletics4Baltimore3 Final · Away7 MayMiami4Baltimore3 Final · Away6 MayMiami4Baltimore7 Final · Away5 MayMiami7Baltimore9 Final · Away4 MayYankees12Baltimore1 Final · Away3 MayYankees11Baltimore3 Final · Away2 MayYankees9Baltimore4 Final · Away1 MayYankees7Baltimore2 Final · Home30 AprHouston11Baltimore5 Final · Home30 AprHouston3Baltimore10 Final · Home28 AprHouston3Baltimore5 Final · Home26 AprBoston5Baltimore3 Final · Home25 AprBoston17Baltimore1 Final · Home24 AprBoston3Baltimore10 Final · Away22 AprKansas City6Baltimore8 Final · Away21 AprKansas City6Baltimore5 Final · Away20 AprKansas City5Baltimore7 Final · Away19 AprCleveland8Baltimore4 Final · Away18 AprCleveland4Baltimore2 Final · Away17 AprCleveland4Baltimore6 Final · Away16 AprCleveland4Baltimore2 Final · Home15 AprArizona8Baltimore5 Final · Home14 AprArizona4Baltimore3 Final · Home13 AprArizona7Baltimore9 Final · Home12 AprSan Francisco2Baltimore6 Final · Home11 AprSan Francisco2Baltimore6 Final · Home10 AprSan Francisco6Baltimore3 Final · Away8 AprWhite Sox3Baltimore5 Final · Away7 AprWhite Sox2Baltimore4 Final · Away6 AprWhite Sox1Baltimore2 Final · Away5 AprPittsburgh8Baltimore2 Final · Away4 AprPittsburgh3Baltimore2 Final · Away3 AprPittsburgh5Baltimore4 Final · Home1 AprTexas3Baltimore8 Final · Home31 MarTexas8Baltimore5 Final · Home30 MarTexas5Baltimore2 Final · Home29 MarMinnesota6Baltimore8 Final · Home28 MarMinnesota4Baltimore1 Final · Home26 MarMinnesota1Baltimore2

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round byeNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Win the division, host the Wild Card SeriesNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Wild Card berth, host the Wild Card Series<1%

A possible long-shot route: 8 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Baltimore 86+ wins

Wild Card berth, on the road9%

Baltimore 81+ wins

Wild Card Series

4YankeesHome5Baltimore

Alongside it: 3 Houston v 6 Boston

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,874. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Tampa Bay	92	70
2	White Sox	87	75
3	Houston	80	82
4	Yankees	90	72
5	Baltimore	83	79
6	Boston	83	79
-	Minnesota	80	82
-	Cleveland	78	84
-	Toronto	78	84

Miss the postseason91%

Baltimore under 82 wins

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 18,118. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Yankees	94	68
2	White Sox	85	77
3	Houston	79	83
4	Tampa Bay	92	70
5	Boston	87	75
6	Minnesota	81	81
-	Detroit	79	83
-	Toronto	79	83
-	Baltimore	77	85