MLB · 2026

3rd by playoff odds30 clubs

Tampa Bay

1st · 98-63

PlayoffsClinched

Next upSun 27 Sep · Away2:30 PM EDTTampa BayClinchedPlayoffsPhiladelphia80%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 51%TB 49%

Last resultFinal · Away27 SepPhiladelphia7Tampa Bay3

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

DivisionClinched

Bye>99%

Pennant35%

World Series16%

1st in the table · 3rd by playoff odds.

AL East finish

1st2nd3rd4th5th

1st · division winner

Most likely 1st. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

American League finish

1st6th · playoff line15th

Most likely 1st. The top 6 in the league make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Sun 27 Sep · Away2:30 PM EDTTampa BayClinchedPlayoffsPhiladelphia80%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 51%TB 49%

History

Final · Away27 SepPhiladelphia7Tampa Bay3 Final · Away26 SepPhiladelphia1Tampa Bay±012Clinched → ClinchedPlayoffs Final · Away25 SepPhiladelphia0Tampa Bay±02Clinched → ClinchedPlayoffs

All results162 played

Final · Away27 SepPhiladelphia7Tampa Bay3 Final · Away26 SepPhiladelphia1Tampa Bay±012Clinched → ClinchedPlayoffs Final · Away25 SepPhiladelphia0Tampa Bay±02Clinched → ClinchedPlayoffs Final · Away24 SepYankees6Tampa Bay±04Clinched → ClinchedPlayoffs Final · Away23 SepYankees9Tampa Bay±02Clinched → ClinchedPlayoffs Final · Away22 SepYankees1Tampa Bay±06Clinched → ClinchedPlayoffs Final · Away22 SepYankees2Tampa Bay±00Clinched → ClinchedPlayoffs Final · Home20 SepBoston1Tampa Bay±05Clinched → ClinchedPlayoffs Final · Home19 SepBoston1Tampa Bay±02Clinched → ClinchedPlayoffs Final · Home18 SepBoston4Tampa Bay±02Clinched → ClinchedPlayoffs Final · Home17 SepAthletics1Tampa Bay±010Clinched → ClinchedPlayoffs Final · Home16 SepAthletics3Tampa Bay±04Clinched → ClinchedPlayoffs Final · Home15 SepAthletics1Tampa Bay±02Clinched → ClinchedPlayoffs Final · Home13 SepHouston4Tampa Bay±014Clinched → ClinchedPlayoffs Final · Home12 SepHouston2Tampa Bay±03>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home11 SepHouston1Tampa Bay±03>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away10 SepAtlanta3Tampa Bay±01>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away9 SepAtlanta2Tampa Bay±07>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away8 SepAtlanta1Tampa Bay±07>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away6 SepTexas8Tampa Bay±06>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away5 SepTexas3Tampa Bay±06>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away4 SepTexas6Tampa Bay±07>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away3 SepTexas6Tampa Bay±00>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home2 SepMets10Tampa Bay±04>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home1 SepMets2Tampa Bay±06>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home31 AugMets3Tampa Bay±02>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home30 AugSan Diego4Tampa Bay±05>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home29 AugSan Diego6Tampa Bay±07>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home28 AugSan Diego4Tampa Bay±09>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away26 AugDetroit0Tampa Bay±03>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away25 AugDetroit4Tampa Bay±01>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away24 AugDetroit1Tampa Bay±04>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away23 AugBaltimore1Tampa Bay±03>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away22 AugBaltimore3Tampa Bay±02>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away21 AugBaltimore5Tampa Bay±03>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home20 AugToronto5Tampa Bay±01>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home19 AugToronto6Tampa Bay±07>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home18 AugToronto10Tampa Bay±05>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home17 AugBaltimore6Tampa Bay±07>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home16 AugBaltimore10Tampa Bay±02>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home15 AugBaltimore4Tampa Bay±03>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home14 AugBaltimore6Tampa Bay±05>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away12 AugAthletics4Tampa Bay±08>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away11 AugAthletics4Tampa Bay±012>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away10 AugAthletics6Tampa Bay±010>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away9 AugSeattle1Tampa Bay±04>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away8 AugSeattle2Tampa Bay±03>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away7 AugSeattle1Tampa Bay±02>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away5 AugColorado0Tampa Bay±04>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away4 AugColorado7Tampa Bay±09>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away3 AugColorado9Tampa Bay±01399% → 99%Playoffs Final · Home2 AugWhite Sox9Tampa Bay±01>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home1 AugWhite Sox0Tampa Bay±0199% → 99%Playoffs Final · Home31 JulWhite Sox6Tampa Bay±01>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home30 JulTexas2Tampa Bay±03>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home29 JulTexas0Tampa Bay±0399% → 99%Playoffs Final · Home28 JulTexas4Tampa Bay±01>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home26 JulCleveland0Tampa Bay▲ +1199% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home25 JulCleveland0Tampa Bay±0399% → 99%Playoffs Final · Home24 JulCleveland3Tampa Bay±01198% → 98%Playoffs Final · Away23 JulToronto3Tampa Bay▼ -1199% → 98%Playoffs Final · Away22 JulToronto2Tampa Bay▲ +1498% → 99%Playoffs Final · Away21 JulToronto2Tampa Bay▲ +21296% → 98%Playoffs Final · Away20 JulToronto1Tampa Bay7 Final · Away19 JulBoston6Tampa Bay1 Final · Away18 JulBoston7Tampa Bay6 Final · Away17 JulBoston5Tampa Bay3 Final · Away17 JulBoston10Tampa Bay0 Final · Home12 JulSeattle8Tampa Bay2 Final · Home11 JulSeattle1Tampa Bay6 Final · Home10 JulSeattle2Tampa Bay7 Final · Home9 JulYankees12Tampa Bay4 Final · Home8 JulYankees0Tampa Bay3 Final · Home7 JulYankees4Tampa Bay6 Final · Home6 JulYankees5Tampa Bay1 Final · Away5 JulHouston2Tampa Bay0 Final · Away4 JulHouston10Tampa Bay8 Final · Away3 JulHouston1Tampa Bay3 Final · Away2 JulKansas City2Tampa Bay5 Final · Away1 JulKansas City0Tampa Bay4 Final · Away30 JunKansas City4Tampa Bay10 Final · Home28 JunArizona1Tampa Bay5 Final · Home27 JunArizona2Tampa Bay4 Final · Home26 JunArizona1Tampa Bay6 Final · Home25 JunKansas City2Tampa Bay13 Final · Home24 JunKansas City3Tampa Bay5 Final · Home23 JunKansas City12Tampa Bay5 Final · Home22 JunKansas City2Tampa Bay1 Final · Home21 JunWashington3Tampa Bay4 Final · Home20 JunWashington4Tampa Bay3 Final · Home19 JunWashington2Tampa Bay5 Final · Away17 JunDodgers5Tampa Bay4 Final · Away16 JunDodgers1Tampa Bay0 Final · Away15 JunDodgers4Tampa Bay3 Final · Away14 JunAngels3Tampa Bay8 Final · Away13 JunAngels8Tampa Bay0 Final · Away12 JunAngels4Tampa Bay3 Final · Home10 JunBoston5Tampa Bay7 Final · Home9 JunBoston3Tampa Bay4 Final · Home8 JunBoston1Tampa Bay3 Final · Away7 JunMiami4Tampa Bay1 Final · Away6 JunMiami4Tampa Bay3 Final · Away5 JunMiami0Tampa Bay6 Final · Home3 JunDetroit7Tampa Bay2 Final · Home2 JunDetroit8Tampa Bay0 Final · Home1 JunDetroit10Tampa Bay9 Final · Home31 MayAngels2Tampa Bay5 Final · Home30 MayAngels14Tampa Bay3 Final · Home29 MayAngels5Tampa Bay8 Final · Away27 MayBaltimore11Tampa Bay2 Final · Away26 MayBaltimore6Tampa Bay1 Final · Away25 MayBaltimore9Tampa Bay7 Final · Away24 MayYankees2Tampa Bay0 Final · Away22 MayYankees2Tampa Bay4 Final · Home20 MayBaltimore3Tampa Bay5 Final · Home19 MayBaltimore1Tampa Bay4 Final · Home18 MayBaltimore6Tampa Bay16 Final · Home17 MayMiami3Tampa Bay6 Final · Home16 MayMiami10Tampa Bay5 Final · Home15 MayMiami2Tampa Bay7 Final · Away13 MayToronto5Tampa Bay3 Final · Away12 MayToronto6Tampa Bay7 Final · Away11 MayToronto5Tampa Bay8 Final · Away10 MayBoston1Tampa Bay4 Final · Away8 MayBoston2Tampa Bay0 Final · Away7 MayBoston4Tampa Bay8 Final · Home6 MayToronto0Tampa Bay3 Final · Home5 MayToronto3Tampa Bay4 Final · Home4 MayToronto1Tampa Bay5 Final · Home3 MaySan Francisco1Tampa Bay2 Final · Home2 MaySan Francisco1Tampa Bay5 Final · Home1 MaySan Francisco0Tampa Bay3 Final · Away29 AprCleveland3Tampa Bay1 Final · Away28 AprCleveland0Tampa Bay1 Final · Away27 AprCleveland2Tampa Bay3 Final · Home26 AprMinnesota2Tampa Bay4 Final · Home25 AprMinnesota1Tampa Bay6 Final · Home24 AprMinnesota2Tampa Bay6 Final · Home22 AprCincinnati1Tampa Bay6 Final · Home21 AprCincinnati12Tampa Bay6 Final · Home20 AprCincinnati6Tampa Bay1 Final · Away19 AprPittsburgh6Tampa Bay3 Final · Away18 AprPittsburgh7Tampa Bay8 Final · Away17 AprPittsburgh5Tampa Bay1 Final · Away16 AprWhite Sox3Tampa Bay5 Final · Away15 AprWhite Sox3Tampa Bay8 Final · Away14 AprWhite Sox5Tampa Bay8 Final · Home12 AprYankees4Tampa Bay5 Final · Home11 AprYankees4Tampa Bay5 Final · Home10 AprYankees3Tampa Bay5 Final · Home8 AprCubs6Tampa Bay2 Final · Home7 AprCubs9Tampa Bay2 Final · Home6 AprCubs4Tampa Bay6 Final · Away5 AprMinnesota1Tampa Bay4 Final · Away4 AprMinnesota1Tampa Bay7 Final · Away3 AprMinnesota10Tampa Bay4 Final · Away1 AprMilwaukee8Tampa Bay2 Final · Away31 MarMilwaukee6Tampa Bay2 Final · Away30 MarMilwaukee2Tampa Bay3 Final · Away29 MarSt. Louis7Tampa Bay11 Final · Away28 MarSt. Louis6Tampa Bay5 Final · Away26 MarSt. Louis9Tampa Bay7

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye>99%

Tampa Bay 98+ wins

Division Series

1Tampa BayHomeWild Card Series winner4 Yankees or 5 Boston

Alongside it: 2 Cleveland v Wild Card Series winner

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 20,000. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Tampa Bay	98	64
2	Cleveland	86	76
3	Houston	81	81
4	Yankees	94	68
5	Boston	88	74
6	White Sox	84	78
-	Texas	80	82
-	Baltimore	79	83

Win the division, host the Wild Card SeriesNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Wild Card berth, host the Wild Card SeriesNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Wild Card berth, on the roadNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Miss the postseasonNo path

No path remains: the postseason place is clinched.