Magic Number.
USL Championship · 2026
6th by playoff odds25 clubs

Orange County

1st · 9-7-4 · 34 pts
Playoffs99%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
8

Win the next 8 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Next upSaturday · Home10:00 PM EDTOrange County99%PlayoffsTulsa87%PlayoffsMatch resultOC 46%Draw 26%TUL 28%Win → 20% · Draw → 12% · Loss → 9%Conference
Last resultFinal · Home15 AugLouisville3Orange County±02>99% → >99%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference17%
Championship8%

1st in the table · 6th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish
1st8th · playoff line12th

Most likely 2nd. The top 8 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Home10:00 PM EDTOrange County99%PlayoffsTulsa87%PlayoffsMatch resultOC 46%Draw 26%TUL 28%Win → 20% · Draw → 12% · Loss → 9%Conference

Upcoming

Sat 29 Aug · Away8:00 PM EDTOakland4%PlayoffsMatch resultOAK 31%Draw 26%OC 43%17% → 9% – 19%ConferenceSat 5 Sep · Home10:00 PM EDTSacramento95%PlayoffsMatch resultOC 45%Draw 26%SAC 29%17% → 9% – 22%ConferenceSat 12 Sep · Home10:00 PM EDTLas Vegas58%PlayoffsMatch resultOC 54%Draw 24%LV 22%17% → 9% – 22%Conference
Full schedule10 to play
Saturday · Home10:00 PM EDTTulsa87%PlayoffsMatch resultOC 46%Draw 26%TUL 28%17% → 9% – 20%ConferenceSat 29 Aug · Away8:00 PM EDTOakland4%PlayoffsMatch resultOAK 31%Draw 26%OC 43%17% → 9% – 19%ConferenceSat 5 Sep · Home10:00 PM EDTSacramento95%PlayoffsMatch resultOC 45%Draw 26%SAC 29%17% → 9% – 22%ConferenceSat 12 Sep · Home10:00 PM EDTLas Vegas58%PlayoffsMatch resultOC 54%Draw 24%LV 22%17% → 9% – 22%ConferenceSat 19 Sep · Away7:00 PM EDTLexington81%PlayoffsMatch resultLEX 39%Draw 27%OC 34%17% → 9% – 23%ConferenceSat 26 Sep · Home10:00 PM EDTPittsburgh98%PlayoffsMatch resultOC 48%Draw 25%PIT 27%17% → 8% – 21%ConferenceSat 3 Oct · Home10:00 PM EDTMonterey Bay<1%PlayoffsMatch resultOC 67%Draw 19%MB 14%17% → 6% – 19%ConferenceSat 10 Oct · Away9:00 PM EDTEl Paso86%PlayoffsMatch resultELP 40%Draw 26%OC 34%17% → 10% – 26%ConferenceSat 17 Oct · Home10:00 PM EDTPhoenix23%PlayoffsMatch resultOC 53%Draw 24%PHX 23%17% → 7% – 22%ConferenceSat 24 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTSan Antonio90%PlayoffsMatch resultSA 41%Draw 26%OC 33%17% → 8% – 26%Conference

History

Final · Home15 AugLouisville3Orange County±02>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home8 AugTampa Bay3Orange County±00>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugEl Paso0Orange County±02>99% → >99%Playoffs
All results20 played
Final · Home15 AugLouisville3Orange County±02>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home8 AugTampa Bay3Orange County±00>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugEl Paso0Orange County±02>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away25 JulMonterey Bay1Orange County±02>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away8 JulHartford2Orange County2Final · Away4 JulRhode Island1Orange County1Final · Away24 JunMiami2Orange County4Final · Away20 JunLas Vegas2Orange County3Final · Away13 JunNew Mexico1Orange County1Final · Home23 MayOakland2Orange County3Final · Away8 MayColorado Springs2Orange County2Final · Away2 MaySacramento3Orange County2Final · Home18 AprLexington0Orange County0Final · Away11 AprTulsa0Orange County1Final · Home8 AprSan Antonio0Orange County2Final · Home4 AprNew Mexico1Orange County0Final · Away28 MarOakland0Orange County1Final · Home21 MarColorado Springs0Orange County1Final · Away14 MarPhoenix1Orange County1Final · Home7 MarLas Vegas1Orange County1

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-03-092026-08-20

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Host a conference quarterfinal84%

Orange County 46+ points

Conference Quarterfinals
2Orange CountyHome7Colorado Springs

Alongside it: 1 New Mexico v 8 Phoenix · 3 Tulsa v 6 El Paso · 4 Sacramento v 5 San Antonio

  1. 80% of this route

  2. 20% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 13,429. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1New Mexico55
2Orange County52
3Tulsa49
4Sacramento46
5San Antonio45
6El Paso44
7Colorado Springs42
8Phoenix39
-Lexington39
-Las Vegas37
Reach the quarterfinals on the road16%

Orange County 42+ points

Conference Quarterfinals
2SacramentoHome7Orange County

Alongside it: 1 New Mexico v 8 Lexington · 3 San Antonio v 6 Tulsa · 4 El Paso v 5 Las Vegas

  1. 53% of this route

  2. 29% of this route

  3. 19% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,647. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1New Mexico52
2Sacramento50
3San Antonio48
4El Paso47
5Las Vegas47
6Tulsa45
7Orange County44
8Lexington43
-Phoenix41
-Colorado Springs39
Miss the postseason1%

A possible long-shot route: 146 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Orange County under 43 points