Magic Number.
USL Championship · 2026
14th by playoff odds25 clubs

Orange County

7th · 10-9-8 · 39 pts
Playoffs85%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
3

Win the next 3 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Could clinch a playoff place as soon as Sat 17 Oct.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.

Could be eliminated as soon as Sat 24 Oct.

Next upSaturday · Away9:00 PM EDTOrange County85%PlayoffsEl PasoClinchedPlayoffsMatch resultELP 51%Draw 25%OC 24%Win → 92% · Draw → 79% · Loss → 64%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Home3 OctMonterey Bay2Orange County▼ -13196% → 83%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%
Championship1%

7th in the table · 14th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish
1st8th · playoff line12th

Most likely 7th. The top 8 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Away9:00 PM EDTOrange County85%PlayoffsEl PasoClinchedPlayoffsMatch resultELP 51%Draw 25%OC 24%Win → 92% · Draw → 79% · Loss → 64%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sat 17 Oct · Home10:00 PM EDTPhoenix9%PlayoffsMatch resultOC 47%Draw 26%PHX 27%85% → 56% – 97%PlayoffsSat 24 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTSan Antonio75%PlayoffsMatch resultSA 44%Draw 26%OC 30%85% → 68% – 98%Playoffs

History

Final · Home3 OctMonterey Bay2Orange County▼ -13196% → 83%PlayoffsFinal · Home26 SepPittsburgh0Orange County▲ +11184% → 95%PlayoffsFinal · Away19 SepLexington6Orange County▼ -4088% → 84%Playoffs
All results27 played
Final · Home3 OctMonterey Bay2Orange County▼ -13196% → 83%PlayoffsFinal · Home26 SepPittsburgh0Orange County▲ +11184% → 95%PlayoffsFinal · Away19 SepLexington6Orange County▼ -4088% → 84%PlayoffsFinal · Home12 SepLas Vegas2Orange County▼ -9098% → 89%PlayoffsFinal · Home5 SepSacramento1Orange County±0198% → 98%PlayoffsFinal · Away29 AugOakland1Orange County±0198% → 98%PlayoffsFinal · Home22 AugTulsa5Orange County±0199% → 99%PlayoffsFinal · Home15 AugLouisville3Orange County±02>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home8 AugTampa Bay3Orange County±00>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugEl Paso0Orange County±02>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away25 JulMonterey Bay1Orange County±02>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away8 JulHartford2Orange County2Final · Away4 JulRhode Island1Orange County1Final · Away24 JunMiami2Orange County4Final · Away20 JunLas Vegas2Orange County3Final · Away13 JunNew Mexico1Orange County1Final · Home23 MayOakland2Orange County3Final · Away8 MayColorado Springs2Orange County2Final · Away2 MaySacramento3Orange County2Final · Home18 AprLexington0Orange County0Final · Away11 AprTulsa0Orange County1Final · Home8 AprSan Antonio0Orange County2Final · Home4 AprNew Mexico1Orange County0Final · Away28 MarOakland0Orange County1Final · Home21 MarColorado Springs0Orange County1Final · Away14 MarPhoenix1Orange County1Final · Home7 MarLas Vegas1Orange County1

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-03-092026-10-05

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Host a conference quarterfinal4%

Orange County 45+ points

Conference Quarterfinals
3Orange CountyHome6Lexington

Alongside it: 1 New Mexico v 8 San Antonio · 2 El Paso v 7 Colorado Springs · 4 Sacramento v 5 Tulsa

  1. 69% of this route

  2. 31% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 551. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1New Mexico52
2El Paso51
3Orange County48
4Sacramento48
5Tulsa47
6Lexington45
7Colorado Springs43
8San Antonio41
-Phoenix39
-Oakland38
Reach the quarterfinals on the road81%

Orange County 40+ points

Conference Quarterfinals
4New MexicoHome5Orange County

Alongside it: 1 Sacramento v 8 San Antonio · 2 El Paso v 7 Colorado Springs · 3 Lexington v 6 Tulsa

  1. 67% of this route

  2. 33% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 10,892. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Sacramento53
2El Paso51
3Lexington48
4New Mexico47
5Orange County44
6Tulsa44
7Colorado Springs43
8San Antonio41
-Las Vegas40
-Oakland38
Miss the postseason15%

Orange County under 43 points

  1. 80% of this route

  2. 20% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,335. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1El Paso54
2New Mexico50
3Sacramento48
4Lexington46
5Colorado Springs46
6Tulsa45
7San Antonio43
8Las Vegas42
-Orange County40
-Phoenix37